Member Info for Tornadotony

Centamin and gold deserve to be higher on those Non farm pay rolls. How Centamin is not in the 90's after USA open makes no sense to me.

Contrarian,

The company is being responsible to remind investors that not everything is in the control of HZM as they complete the remainder of the project. The company had liquidity of $344M as of end of June 2023. I believe their caution has been advised as best practice so as not to mislead investors in assuming there was no risk at this stage of the project. I also believe the issue around the share price is mainly macro issues. The copper rise this morning may just spill over to help nickel prices later and give HZM a floor at least for today. Next week is usually volatile after the USA labour day holiday as many investment banks revamp and change positions in part of their portfolios.

Overall the broker message is do not re-mortgage your house to buy stock on HZM be sensible with portfolio management.

By way of background, USA lost 21M jobs during March and April 2020. Around 1/3 of those jobs came back on line after the first lockdown. USA reshoring activity came into play in 2021 and 2022 and delivered 600,000 new jobs mainly in manufacturing and probably more in 2023.. As Covid-19 issues retreated the non Farm pay rolls surpassed the Covid-19 job losses. Biden claimed the net increase was 12 million jobs. however the NFP numbers register around 4 million. The huge fiscal programmes in USA probably aided to NFP numbers in Q2 of this year. The NFP have delivered a lowish number of 200,000 jobs or less in 2 prints in a row. If we get sub 180,000 this afternoon a trend will be forming. However the print 12 months ago was 500,000 jobs (2019 run rates were usually around 200,000 mark reflecting modest growth rates). The first hurricane has hit Florida and a number of stand by jobs will have been activated. The peak hurricane season commences from early September to late October. A low NFP number would show more significance supporting the trend with this situation as a backdrop. A very high number could suggest the opposite with the FED hiking again in September. So far this week it has been in favour of a pause and we could have an NFP number that is in a no man's land of say 250,000-270,000 jobs and gold does very little in response.

If CEY drops during September, I believe we get a relief rally on the week Centamin delivers a Q3 report. Long term holders hopefully to be rewarded in 2024 if Centamin delivers well on drill results and manages to replace all the reserve ounces that it has mined out during the year.

With just over 30 minutes to go it looks like a dodgers win.

Any news on permits/licence to proceed as I recall it was in the workplan. It should be straight forward, but who knows for sure until the paperwork is in the hand, stamped and approved.

Collecting divi on 75% of the holding as long. Keeping 25% on as short.

Centamin and Shanta not doing that much. Suggests the gold rally may not have that much to run. Gold spot is at significant resistance.

I wish everyone good luck. My very modest position closed here with previous divis as the profit. All the best Tony

Https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/western-world-about-deliver-some-very-bad-news-its-young-adults

OOps wrong link

Https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=nickel&months=120&commodity=goldhttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/western-world-about-deliver-some-very-bad-news-its-young-adults

I suspect the culture war that has been playing out in both the UK and USA is like the dead cat on the table hiding the fiscal mess which needs to be dealt with. Tony

Https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=nickel&months=120&commodity=gold

Occasionally events happen and the comparison differs for a short time, but nickel and gold generally follow similar patterns. The issue at present is whether a recession is going to happen in the next six months. If it does a vast majority of stocks will reduce in price and HZM would be affected by cash call liquidity in general and the SP can go lower. Gold falls before a recession happens as it becomes used as insurance to meet cash calls. Gold is also one of the first to recover when emerging from a recession along with the precious metal miners. Logically nickel also joins a recovery after falling from a loss of demand as production on nearly everything was cut back but rises when economies move out of recession and growth in economies re-emerge.

Gold has steadily fallen with nickel for months. They are giving the early warning signal as one of many other early indicators of an in-bound recession. The recession is hitting China now. It has arisen in Hungary and the Netherlands and spreading into other EU countries. The UK is just a few weeks away if not already in a recession. The USA is currently not in recession however significant data sets have been manipulated and impacted by a huge fiscal side stimulus, but it has created a huge carryover of sovereign debt. Although USA is still holding up some of the cracks may appear as the EU recession dampens down demand.

The markets are heavily interfered with and can delay events that should have materialised earlier so timing the market is always difficult. Overall it is my belief if HZM does pull back in the coming weeks it has nothing to do with HZM. It will simply work through a bust and the next boom cycle. Many believe gold will do well in 2024 if we get a sharp pullback in the coming weeks and for similar reasons nickel may follow a similar rhyming pattern. Tony

The data collections and reported in August and September are renowned for being off the mark as sampling data is very low because of staff holidays. I sense the rise in gold is a possible bull trap. The more important data is later in the week.

I caught it on a second read.

What we have is a 50,000 x 30,000 cm by 10 cm depth say = 15 billion cubic centimetres.

soil density is around 2.5g/cm3

This gives 37,500 metric tonnes of 2% TREO.

At 50% concentrate converted to carbonate = 1500 tonnes and say 80% recovery is 1200 tonnes.

1200 tonnes x $5,000 = $6M revenue = $1M profit.

At a depth of 1 metre = $60M revenue =$10M profit.

At a depth of 10 metres =$600M revenue =$100M profit hence why depth below soli sampling is important.

Hope your right kadavul. We have no captain in a month's time.

I can not understand why the share price is at this level. The company is likely to clear all its mine debts by end of Q3 or possibly by the end of October. It will end this year as cash positive and the lowest projection I have seen is plus $3M in the bank. Next year the company will have around 30% of the current enterprise value as cash in the bank. It is likely to have the equivalent of 10 years of production converted into reserves out in Kenya which is worth 1.5 times the current SP Enterprise value. The company has a low AISC at the present time and 50% higher production. The ETF for juniors is 4% up and Shanta goes down. I hope the company can tell us more on why this stock remains so undervalued in relation to its peers. This undervaluation has given nothing for the creation of a new mine, the above $1900 per ounce gold price and the creation of so many resource ounces in recent years. The share should be way higher than 9-10p. I do not know who is selling and why. The share has not recovered from the Odey debacle unlike his other investments.

Helps pay for the mine development. Can anyone find out the depth of the sampling and not just surface area. we know the spacing was 50 metres apart and has some void areas for stripping.

Dasut

I discovered at least two major errors this evening when I doubled checked previous data. The company has extracted ore from the waste mine tonnage to deliver ounces (some therefore not waste) and the company was also doing planned mine stripping the company usually does on an annual basis. Apologies for missing a few comments that were given by the CFO on this. My earlier figure is therefore well off the mark and is lower per tonne when assigned to the actual overburden. Quite possibly by more than 50% on the figure given before. What I have learned was that the contractor was doing a lot more than getting rid of previous waste and so any commentary inferring that is all they were doing is wrong by a significant margin. Thanks for challenging the figure and making me look at again. An apologies if it had misled anybody here or who read that comment as that it was not intended, Tony

Thanks Mumbles

I was hoping news of Saltend refinery was forthcoming. It encourages me to now hold the remainder of my own core holding in Pensana.

As for Rainbow rare it is an entirely different project. There is a need for both these projects and the recycling activity that MKA does as well. The bickering between different companies has to stop on LSE boards as it can only detract new investors into the rare earth sector overall. 40% of all Chinese exports of rare earths were from Myanmar. China can not suppress the market for much longer at that rate and it will soon not be in their interest to do so.

Last line is can not.

Thinking faster than typing.

This year has to be audited still, but it was running at $210M. Last year it was $170M at H1 and the year before just over $150M Back in 2021 it was 5.35 cents H1 last year it was 7.35 cents. Whatever happens the cash depletion at Centamin has stopped and cash is now be added back to the enterprise value end of H2 despite a lower possible gold price.

If gold does pull back to the 200 SMA and it could well happen we could be 1800-1830 range for 8 weeks and it might get lower. 40,000 protected $85 by the put is $3.4M. If gold rallies and then falls back next spring another 40,000 ounces may cover again. It may not improve that much over the $6M spend which expires July 2024 but gives predictability on earnings. Of course any spell of month on 1700 gold and the put spend is recovered in one shot and any further or future pull backs offer cost recovered protection.

Regarding the waste removal it works out between $3.55 to $3.75 per tonne. Any shovel and truck operation to move overburden to another site starts at $2.50 a tonne when contracted out. There is additional cost on working in a functional mine that is necessary to ensure staff safety especially if any dynamite was being used. Finally if a wall is moving additional care had to be taken early on and this would have resulted in the costing being more front loaded. If Centamin overpaid per tonne it would not have been as much as some make out. The overburden could not be removed by a conveyor belt system and can be compared to their low costs as it is not relevant.

We also know that your silence commences when it shoots back up so the kettle calling the pot black on that one.