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Nearly 1% down in a day and 3.5% down in the week. So £1.6M extra cash drops the stock price over the week. I wonder when the market will realise that the pound is sinking fast and this company earns dollars.

I meant final week of Q3 not Q4 in previous but CEY is hedged anyway.

I was pleased with eric presentation. I have a greater confidence they are finding the best person to replace him and he is as keen with his legacy as all of us as he remains a significant shareholder. The company has outperformed some of their peers and has out performed Centamin more recently by 8% and that is despite that company also being seriously undervalued trading at 8 PE against likely 2023 earnings. The idea of $7.5M in VAT returned income in October is great and probably why we get divis afterwards. The idea that growth and divis are considered together is great imop and does mean different shareholders get some of what they want. WK will take 4 months to get a mining licence in 2024 and is likely to add value to the share price which could be as much as 4p imop.

All the best to fellow Shanta shareholders. I wish Eric all the best he is an exemplary CEO and cares about all stakeholders and especially the safety and well being of staff. Tony

Thanks for posting Cowichan.

Allowing for additional Capex in H2 I have net earnings of around $14.25 cents. As we go into Q4 we have 60,000 ounces hedged at $1900. The $14.25c is based on Q4 average of non hedged sales of 65,000 ounces at $1800 per ounce. Overall this confirms the share is trading at 8 times earnings. I have assumed we do not have an almighty collapse in gold price in the final week of Q4 and maintain an average price of ounce sold near $1920. We still have 20,000 ounces of hedge this month that may not have been used.

Next year the company has $70M or so to spend on developing ounces and new assets instead of stripping likely to create 3M new resource ounces in my opinion at good grades.

I can see a very strong recovery on Centamin in 2024. A gold price around $1850 next year would take Centamin back to 115p. We could see the dividend up another penny as well. At higher gold prices a higher SP. Tony

One year graph starts and ends in the exact same place. Most of the time Centamin performs in a similar fashion to Barrick Gold.

Mr Tibbs

I am not the one saying the share price was due to inflation and I presume your comment was to Steve. The argument by Steve does not make sense to me as the inflation difference now from H1 is quite small. The average share price in H1 was 106p. The company is trading 17% less on the SP when income earned overall has been greater in Q3 by around $1.5M dollars by my estimates. The retreat is because certain entities have sold off gold miner ETFs and put it into 5% interest earning bonds instead. Buyers of Centamin currently have a potential 17% upside plus a future dividend.

Last week this share was around 9.9p. The pound dropped 2.91% against USD since then. Correcting for currency devaluation alone puts this stock on 10.19p and the pound is still falling against USD. The point I am making is that the higher gold price increase last week has barely moved the SP higher. The share has been given next to nothing after dramatically eliminating the debt component off the enterprise value. It has been given nothing for a 100% increase on forward earnings for next year. It is ridiculous what is happening on the UK stock market and for stocks like Shanta gold.

In one week the pound has dropped 2.91% against USD. The company earns USD and is priced in sterling pounds. So 88p last week is now with 85.5p. Centamin is getting no benefit in being priced in a devaluating currency. Furthermore the pound is expected to decline further against USD. It can not go on like this it makes no sense. If the pound was equal to USD on parity would it go up 20% or continue to stay where it was and then reduced further in price for good measure.

I just wonder who is flogging it off at this price. At some point a major will take on all the assets as an organic acquisition. One morning Shanta Gold will have Bid Situation declared and have shares suspended at 18-20p or they could be sold at the price range. The enterprise value converts 2p as cash from next year and adds 2p each year after. I will have one other stock trading below cash by next February unless the SP goes up. This is in a global market where media hype AI garbage companies trade at 100x plus PE rates like some dotcom failure companies that went bust in 2001-2003.

Https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/united-states-national-debt-tops-33-trillion-for-first-time.html#:~:text=The%20debt%2C%20which%20equals%20the%20amount%20of%20money,the%20debt%20topping%20%2433%20trillion%2C%20the%20department%20said.

Debt going up fast and a shut down planned for 30 September as highlighted when the downgrading of the USD was made.

Just imagine if all governments could run massive fiscal deficits and how good their GDP data based on debt growth would look. Next year it will be bread and circuses time probably for both USA and UK. I wonder what our currency will look like in September 2024. UK sterling lost the 124 handle today on USD. I suspect 120 cents for a pound by Christmas if we are lucky. Gold in pounds probably at a much higher price.

Trading on a forward PE of 6.1 yahoo and other sources. The lowest i have seen in years.

144 institutions own Centamin shares comprising 76% of all Centamin stock.

Trading at 0.93 price to book ratio not far off all time lows.

Projected income to increase substantially in H2 with higher production.

Average gold price sold is probably $10 an ounce less but production ounces say 10,000 plus higher. Equates to -$1.1M on price + $4.7M earned on higher production. AISC anticipated to be similar to H1.

Share price trading 15% lower than H1 despite higher net earnings.

China banned imports of gold to protect the currency. Imports were allowed from yesterday and the premium backed down to $80 per ounce. Likely to get closer to $20 soon. The fact that imports have been allowed suggests China is regaining confidence in their own currency.

Dividend increase could result in a negative response from the Tanzania government. Tax rates on divis paid are also going up. I would prefer the money is spent on securing more gold reserves and organically growing with a higher share price. The company holds the higher ground by identifying how low the dividend yield is and why paying back owed VAT

rebate monies is relevant.

Astro my explanation as someone who lives in the UK.

In September 2011 the peak gold price was £1,178. Today the same bar of gold is valued at £1,561 and inflation has ran 60% in the UK. Therefore the equivalent peak price is £1885 per ounce of gold and that is an expensive peak price to pay.

The bottom of the market was £708 per ounce in December 2015. Today that bottom is £1,018 which is a rock bottom low.

Inflation calculations are biased low and hence we equate it better to say a property price we live in or some other major asset. I would estimate that real data is 10% higher on both the low and the high. This gives £1120 per ounce low and the high is £2073 which is approaching the normal 100% variation between a bull high and bear low. We are currently £440 above the bottom and £512 below a bull market top. Gold in my opinion is slightly below mean value. £1593 gold ounces or $1975 gold per ounce is exactly on the average mean on what we see here in the UK.

It is pointless using 1980 metrics as the gold price exploded way above any sensible metric value and it took 20 years to get to a bear market bottom. It is therefore best to look at where gold was at 2011 and 2015 to follow where we are now. What determines the future is whether we are in a bull market or bear market. Inflation tells us we are behind by around 3-4% or so. The motivation to buy something other than gold is based on what is safe to buy. If we believe the UK sovereign debt is a potential future problem then gold is in a bull market. If we believe the debt is entirely manageable without printing more money than we can buy bonds and be happy with 5% and gold is less attractive and bearish. If we believe the equity market is undervalued on PE multiple then gold is more likely in a bear market and if we fear a lot of companies are making far less profit than it is more likely a gold bull market. All the time we recalibrate where gold is in ounces to an important non-gold asset we own and that reminds us whether we are near a gold bottom or a top in valuation in our currency.

Tony

Astro,

USA dollar was probably messing up gold for different reasons. China is now allowing imports of gold once again. The premium hit $119 per ounce last week but has now dropped to $80 or so on spot gold price. The reason the ban was imposed was to strengthen the currency. USA bragging on false data on Bloomberg was so over the top as to be obvious and laughable how the presenters could keep a straight face was academy award stuff or someone had a red hot poker nearby. Relaxation by China was an indicator of confidence in their own currency and the economy was responding to a degree to give some confidence.

The FED will do their hawkish pause and last time they did it, gold and gold miners rallied. I suspect a similar event again and we should have some kind of news from Centamin. Hopefully some drill results or something to suggest management and the company still have a pulse. Tony

Closed gap on buy side. Short closed with small loss. We may break through this time.

Astro

The sell volume is way higher than the buy volume so the market maker has pushed the sell price higher and then dumped stock. In theory it should retreat, but we shall see if an institutional buyer is on the other side picking up stock at a higher price. It is always uncomfortable starting the day with a share having a large price gap up. It has remainder higher on the Friday close all of this morning on the buy side.

Centamin could go higher during the week. The Asian market has gapped gold higher for USA market this morning and . I am not sure if USA will sell miners and gold early on this afternoon.

Market maker made a pigs ear this morning with wide spreads on Centamin. Precious little volume.

Ideally needed to be below and break the upper resistance line. Otherwise it looks like a bull trap. It may then fail with a lack of volume follow through. We shall see.

Https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/soft-landing-narrative-myth

This sums up what is going down and the evidence is not just in this one article. USA is heading into deep trouble.