Member Info for Tornadotony

Hi Strow,

I took out my trading account long yesterday at 3.xp which was 75% of my HZM holding. I was trying to hold it until 6 April and take the hit and manage it through future CGT next year when my allowance and historical call down was very low. I have tried to see a way this can possibly survive and if I could I would buy it back, but the last RNS was more than just a hospital pass, but a trip to the morgue. I genuinely can not see how HZM can resurrect itself from this mess. Hence I used one of my own valuation models and it tells me that unless existing debt is all written off, a new project can not really take off. I do not know how that can happen and HZM survives. I have to go with Publican on this one as it has potential delisting all over it. La Mancha in the meantime have shown us the pig and are now trying to put lipstick on it. I wish everyone all the best and wish there was an example of a situation like this where a company survived and investors got most of their investment monies back. HZM was only 4-5% of my portfolio. I can recover it all over 2 quarters. I have been in this situation several times before. All the best Tony

PS I will follow one of my rules and stop writing on the HZM board having taken the hit, but I need a day or two to apply it as I go through post dramatic loss disorder.

Tony

Going on November 2021 stated reserves and resources. Multiply resource figure by half as a conversion rate to reserves. End up with 2.1M tonnes of nickel. Generally speaking and it an estimate measure a bank may value the in ground value as 2% of a mean revenue sold cost. $2.1M tonnes x $16500 x -.0.02% = $693M of asset in which a loan could be raised. The original plan made it all possible. Unless all the old debt is written off the debt is $1004M and quite possibly another $200M on top for just line 1. Therefore the market price for nickel has to above $29,000 per tonne to be economically viable to mine. I think it is a no go unless all the previous costs are written off.

A company promise of a future dividend or any cash return to shareholders has no legal binding until it converts into debt in the accounts. If declared by the board under an RNS and the dividend is recorded as a debt it becomes a legally binding commitment to shareholders. If the company chose not to pay out once it is transferred as debt in the accounts we have the right to legally sue Nanoco for non payment. Hence we are not hearing anything and this implies the company may not be returning funds to shareholders. Just as they played with the word shortly, everything about this company is misrepresented to ordinary shareholders. They will tell us they have the legal right not to honour what they said to us before and refer to other comments that were in a disclaimer in previous documentation.

Something is going seriously wrong here.

Looks like FT blocked my link. Most is what we got in the RNS. It pointed out at the end of the article that BHP Western Australian write down and ended by saying that BHP expects a 10 year over supply of nickel.

Https://www.ft.com/content/7e790bd0-4ef8-4486-bfdd-aa03e89a6c90

Article in FT.

I thought HZM was a dead parrot after the RNS. They costs were likely to go higher. The time scale and interest debt carried was going through the roof. The in house broker gave an under review comment as they probably could not face saying zero pence. The company also run out of money. The RNS stated there was no certainty of getting any funding.

Perhaps a penny or two for today.

A lot of people here did take note of publican's comments, but if anyone is repetitive in giving their advice and opinions to often it can draw in alternative responses.

I removed HZM from ISA accounts last week although I had to sell 200,000 very profitable Shanta gold shares in my portfolio to cover it. The problem with ISAs is that you can not use CGT (Capital Gains Tax) losses as there is no CGT to start with. I regard any HZM held or recently sold losing position in a trading account as a CGT loss asset to add on top of any future annual allowance rate set by government tax authorities. For those investing for a number of years, it is likely you may have profitable outcomes in a trading account that could give a big tax bill in a successful year. By carrying over losses in CGT from previous years in the tax return you can use them to off set that tax liability and carry on with a net remainder until it is all used up. It is vital to carryover any CGT losses every year in the tax return otherwise you lose this asset in the following year.

All the best Tony

It makes you wonder what these highly paid people do on Boards watching their 100's of millions of investment actually do. I sense they knew this was all going to happen and hired Jeremy to deliver 1/3 of the project. Nobody wanted to face the fact that the value of USD has massively shrunk in value and that commodity inflation is on its way otherwise it is just recycling above ground and using old mines with poor commodity grades. The official inflation rate was 33% since December 2020 in most advanced economies. Reality inflation may be a lot higher because of material and skill shortages elsewhere. What we will find out is whether banks support the realistic cost of a new highly advanced nickel mine for 2026. Commodity prices by then would probably be $26,000 a tonne.

Arthur,

The management team of this company are turning disappointment into other emotions the longer they drag this out and not at least communicating what they are doing. They are testing a lot of shareholders patience. Tony

The method on how our money is to be distributed back to us is important. We do not know if impacts this financial year or next year. It impacts on gifting arrangements to family members. It impacts on active portfolio management. There is nothing confidential about the methodology issue on what is to be done.

Shortly means in a few days in the context in what was written and does not mean several weeks.

Steve

My positions in 2023/24 are well up despite set backs. Portfolio overall up 6% plus dividends this year. I do not guarantee any forecast hence the word probably, possibly, may, could or whatever. It is all opinion and your time scale is very short. You claim a lot of success in how you do things and good for you. I know what works for me overall. All the best Tony

(Let us close this topic as a lot more interesting events could well unfold in the market).

Steve

Gold went up to where Asian markets closed and doble topped. They did not come back down all the way to the London market close as USA market is shut until tomorrow. The gap in the London market remains and can either be closed during the day or by tomorrow morning open. I forgot USA market was closed this afternoon.

USA market is shut this afternoon. So the adjustments may await for tomorrow to all realign.

Asian markets have closed the gap in the gold chart just as I said could happen. We now waiting for the gap created in the London market to close later this morning. It is so far going as I said it would. Steve I know you have your way of doing things that works with the way you invest and trade. We all have our methods that we find work for us individually. What is great that we share what we know about our methodology. The key is finding out what best works for our own way of investing. Most models that we use work 80-85% of the time and you were honest enough to say you have to reverse things occasionally. Gold direction is likely to be down this week is my opinion especially if SP500 retreats.

16 February was options expiry in USA markets.

On expiration day, traders can employ various strategies:

Selling a bear call credit spread: This involves selling at an intraday top and profiting if the underlying stock price drops.

Selling a bull call credit spread: Here, you profit if the underlying stock price rises, especially at a possible intraday bottom.

The options expiry moved gold futures higher late on which implies selling on gold bull call credit spreads.

The gold market may open closer to where the price was when China was off for the week as a result in Asian markets. If so I would expect the Asian markets to bring the gold price down to London close after they fill their market gaps when they open. It then favours a small move up on gold so that all gaps are filled in the Asian, London for the USA markets open. We shall then know the true direction of gold on Tuesday imop. The miners could well be flat if such movements do occur with gold futures.

Https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/tanzania-in-crisis-no-electricity-sugar-and-dollars-4528102#google_vignette

All going downhill very fast in Tanzania.

In the meantime last sentence.

The market is responding negatively to the last RNS. Belatedly, the company is emphasising the iterative nature of what they are doing and the extension of timelines. At some point the R and D has to get near market and then on the market. The company needs to deliver a different tone and emphasis as the real end point is to make money. Investors otherwise will feel they are supporting a research hobby. I am not wanting to be negative on RBW and all the great work team has done. It is time to get more business orientated on timelines (that are actually met) and we have that focus and language of route to market with more details of action plans and approvals that need to be obtained to facilitate exploitation of the technology. In the meant timeshare prices are getting near bargain basement.

Will not take long to back fill. Probably has as gold falls backs.