The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Have 500 of these and slowly built up a stake. If it pulls back will add a lot more. I think this hits a high this side of September.
If the company does go into administration, does it mean that any shares held going into that process can be written off after 5th April 2024. If that is so a lousy £3,000 CGT limit in the UK in the new financial year can be expanded to cover HZM share losses to raise the level of when capital gains tax kicks in. Tony
The positive surprise is what they find out near little Sukari and whether feedstock ore can be trucked to the main processing plant. It de-risks the Sukari operation.
As for the final report, I suspect we only get perhaps a 2p divi as they need cash for lots of drilling and converting resources into reserves.
I believe Q3 and Q4 are likely to be very strong for Centamin. For quarter 1 there is advanced waste Sukari stripping and the same applies in Q2. I also suspect some high grading was done to hit target at the back end of last year to pull forward 10,000 ounces. The upshot is that production is likely to be on the lower end at 105,000 ounces mark and the AISC at the top of range nearer $1350 or $1375 where future quarters bring it back into range. I also suspect they may front load some sharing arrangements with the Egyptian Government to help with USD shortages. The company also has a big maintenance agenda in Q1 which happens every year.
Consequently the 106p price tag is probably priced in a modest Q1. If gold does pull back to 2050 we could see 96p area but I doubt it will slip further back as Q2 may be slightly better on production. The concern I have is that the cash pile does not grow much under Horgan. Maybe that will change during 2024.
100,000 13.9p sell and 13.97 to buy.
Yes the FRES figures were poor in 2023 for a host of reasons just like in 2019. However, those buying the stock are looking at likely earnings in 2024 and 2025. We will get a clear idea of what is happening in the Q1 results next month. Furthermore the company has 30 years of resources to convert into reserves for gold and silver. HoC and other FTSE 250 and junior miners do not have that resource. Hence they always trade at lower PE rates to Fresnillo. At $25 USD silver per ounce, Fresnillo is making serious money on the bottom line. At $26 Ag the earnings are up 25% after tax. Gold earning are currently adding 25% up on total earnings. If the current metal prices hold Fresnillo returns to around 650p on EBITDA.
Fresnillo target range is 505p to 580p. It mainly depends on what happens to silver prices and gold holding above $2040 per ounce.
Fog
The two other elephants in the room was a 1M ounce drop in gold reserves which 610k was mined out and the remainder lost on economic to mine criteria. The second was the low level of profits post tax of $141M that was worse than in 2019.
The company has responded on the gold reserve front by undertaking more exploration and drilling to transfer resources to reserve ounces 10% budget increase. They have a $50M savings plan underway, gold prices are currently $200 an ounce on last year's sold price and hopefully silver can get pass $25 an ounce to improve on the bottom line. Tony
Fresnillo has huge in the ground value of reserves and resources. The value of in the ground material that only includes silver and gold is around $3.5B dollars. The company has debts and it has a great deal of plant and the net asset book value as confirmed by FT is around $4 Billion net. The key about Fresnillo is the silver price. If silver stabilised on a $25 floor then Fresnillo profits would move from the 2023 low to around 22% higher overall. Gold is currently lifting 4% higher and probably nullifying peso edging up and on-going inflation. The 2023 data is worse than 2019 and hence why the share price has fallen back. The next Q1 report is key for Fresnillo along with Mexico possibly making a rate cut on 26 March. Buying now is a bet that the company are making savings, discovering new reserves and that silver income is going higher in 2024.
I mentioned over the weekend how at 14p it makes it difficult for those who sold in trading accounts at 13.23 to get back in at 14p without knowing the deal price as 30 days bed and breakfast limits elapse.
Steve
We do not know if more than 3/8ths of our share holding will get taken up. This scheme makes a complete mess for ISA holders and they clearly did not consult with anybody holding Nanoco who could be at a higher price than 24p in that scenario. On second thoughts perhaps they did and decided to go out of their way to disadvantage holders in that position.
Tony
Yes steve we shall soon find out on the data point. ETFs have pulled back 2.6% putting Centamin on 103p.
Gold miner ETFs starting to sell off.
I am not sure how long it can hold daily RSI 78-80 kind of levels.
It all depends if they can take it to 24p in this tax year so that those with a CGT bill can off set a Nanoco loss against it. At 24p my partner can sell 10% of her shares and have no CGT bill. If it was 28p she would have offered the lot. Instead the whole thing suits LOAM who will sell all their shares and tank the SP and buy them back cheap. Those with small numbers of Nanoco shares are likely to throw in the towel and give up on this lot.
Cowichan,
If you can find a decent CEO let us all know. So many company CEOs are arrogant shyster used car salesperson types that I wonder if any integrity exists out there any more. I totally understand why people are giving up on equity investing. The low standard in politics and so many walks of life that the idea of someone resigning for incompetence is instead rewarded with promotion or a huge good bye bonus with generous pension plans attached. Tony
I can only buy more from Friday 15 March. If it gets near 14p it becomes risky for PIs to buy without knowing what a new offer price will be.
The only real beneficiary is LOAM. They probably have a consultancy deal for BT when he leaves the company. They found a way for most PIs to get nothing. In the end so many disincentives to investing are on-going for PIs. I will be quitting all this over the next 12 months.
Could well lift the SP this morning.
GGG
I have bought back what I had in the ISA. Since I pulled out 3 weeks ago, gold has broken through and several miners have now broken out as well like Ashanti on Friday. The pivotal case the Patels made via Saturn was that gold peaked in December. The Shanta Board agreed with that view. The forward statement they made has proven to be absolutely defunct. The bias against gold miners they made was true when they presented the documentation in December. By the end of this week or in the coming weeks that sentiment will be history and all of that argument is lost.
Once the story given in December was completely sunk it was noticeable that more funds from various sources were acquiring the Shanta stock. Saturn could not get it passed on 29th February. They waved the flag that nobody else came into buy the stock, but Saturn undermined the proposition by their media antics. Saturn also hid data that was to be disseminated as it was not favourable to their objectives. The Board at Shanta has been subservient to the bidders because they may have had no choice unless they wanted to resign without a pay off. Any judge looking at this paperwork is going to see what Saturn and the Patels are doing. If the opposition is making their voice heard or known then a better offer has to go on the table.
Saturn will argue they gave a 14.85p price as an offer they could walk away and nobody gave it. My bet is they offer the 14.85p with dividend to close it out if the institutional and legal fund holders agree it. Hence I came back in to get a better exit price on some of my SHG shares.
Do I think 13.5p goes this week. Well it certainly could if gold just keeps going up.
Tony