Member Info for Tornadotony

Metalhead25,

The events building up this weekend have implications for most stocks on the market. If BRES loses support lines it reflects the macro environment of what might soon take place and not the real future value of the company. BRES is tending to follow gold prices for the most part along with a number of commodity stocks. TT

No matter how one calculates the improvement the share price should not be under 13.1p. On some websites Tullow is having the PE rate dropped from 4 to 3.2 and that does not make sense when the company risks are declining. One can only assume a lot of firepower is building up for the 28th April next week.

TDDW the only clue is how much Tullow was losing if the Price reduced to $60 a barrel and $55 a barrel and how much they said they would gain for every $5 increase over $65B in the free cash flow. The forward average price of Brent futures is around $82 a barrel since 1 January as an average mean. It is going up around 30 cents a day. The annual free cash flow increase is $68M on annualised rates which are likely to materialise.

7.95p, 7.8p followed by 7.35p. All shorter term chart trends are currently running negative. Likely to test support levels. The 7.35p support comes in to play if we get a market wide pull back in equities imop. Hold some cash if we get a pull back and see where support eventually holds up.

Stocks do not go up in a straight line. They get overbought, become expensive and retreat. They establish a higher low and then produce a higher high. The company has all the risk of construction, obtaining all the funds to service it and the DFS has yet to be actually published. Advancing in value without a DFS being finalised presents past risks that have occurred with RBW. The only justification of going heavy at this stage is whether investors expect the company to be sold before DFS publication.

I added 150% to the position.

Just stayed with core holding as a blocked Hormuz Gulf strait gives Trump leverage on his China visit. If China gives a rare earth deal to get oil then a set back is possible for RBW. I would fill up a bigger position if we see low 20's again. It is the macro issues that can impact RBWs plans and the company can do little about it. The rise has been on fairly low volumes.

Ceasefire rolls over however, Hormuz Strait remains shut. Looks like Trump fancies shutting in a lot of Gulf oil wells especially Iranian wells.

We have heard of depletion from national oil reserves into the market. A new reality is that supply lines in future will not be viewed in the same way as the past. One of the future requirements for many countries is to have a greater amount of oil and gas stored above pre Iran war levels. This is likely to contribute towards a higher future base cost for oil if a peace settlement in the coming hours does materialise.

Hoppa

Thanks for your input. Encouraged me to add some more. All the good potential news coming together. If they all transpire this has to go a lot higher.

TT

Makes little sense. Now valued less than if it has hardly earned any money at all from higher oil prices in the last two months. Previous comments I made on cash flow were calculated at PE rates of just 1.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Is-No-Longer-Trading-Like-a-Market.html

Anyone responding to my contributions on TLW to our readers can refer to me as TT as not to confuse responses to TonyB. I should stress I have only one LSE identity and have over 8000 posts to date.

Agree with you TonyB. I have a high opinion of Amrita who I think is one of the best oil analysts out there and she has a brilliant hard working team supporting her.

The futures Brent price throughout the Iran war is $97 per barrel and backdating to 1 January has risen higher to $81.65. If the war ended tomorrow and averaging out any temporary dip. It is most likely from futures oil average price would be near $85 a barrel by late May. I agree spot price is way higher than the futures. What on earth Tullow is doing below 12p and near 13p does not make a lot sense to me.

Https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=amrita+sen+latest+view+on+crude+oil+prices&mid=E4BA998E00F9E9B55F45E4BA998E00F9E9B55F45&churl=&FORM=VIRE

Key points raised.

1. 13 M barrels total per day shut in production in Gulf.

2. Some fields shut in have never been shut in before and field recoveries are not fully known.

3. No assessment of how long damaged facilities will take to repair.

4. The projected 2026 oversupply at the beginning of the year keeping oil prices around $60 a barrel is no longer in existence.

5. Floating storage mainly held by Russian cargoes has been exhausted.

6. Tankers that were assigned to collect cargoes in the Gulf are now operating in other parts of the world and will not return to at least June if peace was fully established and agreed tomorrow. This adds to the 13M barrels that are being lost every day for a longer time period.

7. Higher oil prices are likely to persist for another 3 -4 months.

8. The future long term oil price absolute minima is between $70-80 a barrel.

Https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Today was a stock market index option expiration.

Markets exploded higher on the news that Iran is offering to continue to discuss the cessation of hostilities given the recent ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which was one of their key negotiating conditions.

There seems to be some discontinuity between what has been agreed and what is being reported.

But apparently an enormous short position on the price of oil was placed about 20 minutes before this latest development was announced.

---------------

As usual we are being played. TonyT

In my previous I meant to say how Tullow was now being priced in the first sentence. Basically 10.8p share price is spot price Brent remaining at $65 a barrel. Can you imagine how the Trump share portfolio can play all these moves big time in advance.

Brent has not fallen to $65 or below a barrel. It is now being priced below what has been a higher price for nearly 1/6 of the year in which the mean price for the entire 4 months as an average is $81 a barrel. The share at the current price is average Brent at $65 a barrel on spot for all of the remainder of 2026. It is an extreme response to current events and those exiting the stock. If Brent was $72 for the rest of this year as a mean price the share price should be 12p or so. $80 gives say 13p and $85 at least 14p. The market is treating the war as having no impact when it has.

Just announced hormuz is closed again.

Other positions of my portfolio have gone up so I will hold Tullow. The whole energy sector is quite fragile. The positive side is that demand will rebound back. It takes 3 months for prices to diminish to previous spike levels and with material damage to production it could well be 6 months. Futures curves have retreated but remain above $81 a barrel to September. This alone takes us to 12.5-13p range with all the additional FCF.