Member Info for Tornadotony

I bought some yesterday at 12.8p and a lot more at 13p.. MTL is my number one portfolio holding. If goes down to 13p again, I will be adding a lot more.

Dennis your absolutely right and the gas prices are only down 1.5% and Serica is going to be a far bigger player on gas in the future. I plan to double down again if the market wants to discount Serica further. As the company has said $100 oil per barrel is $80 after hedging for the company. Serica recovered $122M of debt from its enterprise value on a 31 December $200M debt with 174p price tag. The debt reduction alone takes the share to 197p. The company profitability is $13 a barrel on oil sols since beginning of March and is likely to removed all outstanding debt by end of July. This increases value from 197p to 212p. On top of that production for remainder of the year is increasing and at $67 barrel and 84p therm for gas that gives a fair value around 254p. However oil and gas is going to be higher for the rest of this year and so I would expect this share to hit 330p. On top of that a lot of good news in 2027 to be had. Capital markets day should be fun next month.

Mike has done a great job. The company can not do anything about a war in Iran. The war is putting up interest rates. Bonds are higher. A lot of companies are concerned about a future recession. A lot of organisations companies and public sector are waiting to see what unfolds in the coming weeks. All Mike can do is clear the ground work and to be ready to press ahead when the markets have more certainty about anything. How reliable would any costings be in the current state of unknowns. TT

PS regard a pull back as a gift, back up the truck and load up for 2028 or wait and see if there is a market wide crash and buy at that time when fear is at total panic levels.

Doubled up.

This share hardly rose on the last oil price elevation probably for servicing reasons. Still over $100 on Brent and gas will be in short supply for ages. A case of seeing this will go to Q3 with far better production and hopefully good reliability. Tony

Took serious profits this morning and yesterday. Wishing holders good luck.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EPP/nsta-decision-to-offer-gas-storage-licence/17578251

Apologies hydrogen production not storage. Still on first coffee.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EPP/nsta-decision-to-offer-gas-storage-licence/17578251

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EPP/nsta-decision-to-offer-gas-storage-licence/17578251

Jimzi,

The liquidity was poor and the sells came one after the other and broke support. The key is whether other investors see it as a reason to top up and pull us back above 5.5p on the sell and that any breakdown was a false chart move now explained by an RNS. The person affected is not paid in cash on the company pay roll.

RNS explains that a non exec was forced to sell shares to meet tax liabilities. He got a poor price for it, but at least we know why support line gave away yesterday. The seller still holds 1.5M shares. The last time on a stock this happened to me the share price when up quite a bit not long after. Hopefully it gets some market support as an opportunity. The rns also re-emphasised what we knew from the annual report.

Hope your right. So far the wooden spoon share in my own portfolio. My average is above the 5 handle as well. Fingers crossed this will work out.

Scaffman

This article was last week of April. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604233673 It is getting worse as people try to buy a cup full of rice or whatever from other sources. Of course I can only read what slips through a news blackout in Iran and can not verify the sources and your right for possibly calling it incorrect news. Food may be available to some extent, but is it is probably expensive. I gather the military received no salary for the first time on a facebook source. At any rate we are likely to find out how true things are in the next two weeks or so.

Iran has a serious food shortage problem and this is the last throw of the dice. Within 10 to 12 days all their wells will be shut in. Inflation running over 70% and economy is now in complete collapse. This war will be over by end of May and Iran is going to lose heavily. A case of whether it collapses from within or USA mops up whatever firepower capacity Iranians have in play and just holds the blockade. By the end of the week parts of Iran will be offering white flags for urgent food drops. The only country that can save Iran is China by physically entering the war with a lot more than just satellite target support.

As for Tullow 16p is the least the SP deserves. The current price reflects the past two months earnings. Higher current and future prices are determined on what they may earn to whenever prices retreat. Another two months of $95 a barrel takes it to 20p.

If you want to see how Helikon are at shorting just look at ITM. Helikon were seriously short om ITM at 63p a share. They only started to get out at around 130p and they have been bleeding all the way to 158p. They are still losing their shirts as ITM and in my opinion is going higher. Helikon have lost a fortune and I suspect Goldman Sachs gave them the money to lose as they heavily support a competitor that has Chinese manufacturing partner. Helikon serve other idiots and for Tullow that could be a competitor that has an investor (probably a bank) in another oil company who wanted Tullow to go bust. The presence of the shorter tells us somebody possibly wants Tullow remaining asset off Ghana on the cheap. At some point they may have to buy back those short shares and if and when they do Tullow could theoretically trade at 15-20PE and be 50-60p again. Tullow need to produce some good RNS info like Ghana paying back some monies owed to them. I suspect such an RNS like that would be a huge catalyst as it implies Ghana is free to act of any other banker debtor source they have that may want to harm Tullow and the Ghana government has that particular monkey now off its back.

Something like this would help.

https://www.mining.com/trump-sons-invested-in-us-group-developing-1-1b-tungsten-project-in-kazakhstan-ft/

Took off the overweight in Tullow a few days back and reinvesting it back here again. The refinancing makes this share a more promising longer term investment. It has risen every time I entered Serica positions and we shall see if that winning run can continue. Can average it down if it goes lower.

Something is up to keep key people on board. No performance requirement against performance. This feels like a future takeover.

It does look like they are applying the proper PE rate to future cash flows so 13p should go to 16p. The next phase is whether TLW gets a PE re-rating higher. It would be nice to see 10 PE to go all the way to 22p.

Furthermore, for all those hunting for new companies to invest in on the web, there was one site that gave the number one company to buy in April as ITM, this was on the day the share price closed at 129p or so. Imagine the idiot shorting a hot number one company ahead of others like Glencore, Shell or whatever. I wonder how much they are paid for such mistakes probably with other peoples money. For all those who manage their own funds without the experts and have been here on an ITM a long time, you are investment geniuses.

TonyT

Https://mining.com.au/why-the-west-desperately-needs-more-graphite-mines/