Member Info for Tornadotony

This has every chance to re-rate to at least 15-16p in a few weeks time.

Phase 1 likely to be announced imop in the summer.

The NDA comment grabbed my attention and the RNS as a whole has more focused clarity rather than we may pursue option X or Y as said on interviews in the past. It is definite they do phase 1 first followed by phase 2. This approach reduces risks for all parties involved and gives evidence of competency at all levels to be proven.

The only comment that I will make about Ebola in Uganda is that it is incredible they have kept the numbers in single digits thus far and I am not calling the wolf from the forest in that comment. Another week from now with cases under control, would be a big thumbs up to WHO in making their original call and for the response of the public health teams in Uganda along with border patrols and everyone else in stopping the spread from the Congo. It also takes a lot of bravery from staff going out in the field and dealing with a disease like it and it is wrong for anybody to suggest it was all routine or trivial.

Private investor in previous should be institutional investor.

I suspect Mike who is doing a good job has a tendency to make himself a hostage to fortune in some of his own commentary. He communicates partly in that manner to drive himself forward and demonstrate his active motivations which is part of the chemistry of a number of CEOs. What I have observed so far on the financing is setting unrealistic targets in the light of what is unfolding for a company that is not listed in USA markets and is a land locked country which has higher export costs to deal with or more complicated supply chain pathways.

If an RNS arises tomorrow it only matters if it has secured funding to deliver P1 phase. If an institution provides $20M the shares will get diluted for the monies. What may be a far better approach is to make an offering that retail investors who own shares already can participate towards the $20M and have a chance of not being diluted if they want to avoid that outcome. Why should a private investor get a discounted price perhaps for $20M value of the company with us all being excluded.

Once showing the market of a successful phase 1 being delivered, confidence is sky high on the expansion which has an in-built de-risking income stream in operation showing a direct reliable, high quality pathway being evident and serving customers .

This is a possible buying opportunity. The discount may increase a bit more. However in August buyers may have a big smile on their face. Buying at the bottom is not easy, but sometimes you hold your nose and do it. investing is never easy and hence the need for occasional rewards for having the bravery in supporting what you believe in.

Https://mausam.imd.gov.in/responsive/monsooninformation.php

Monsson progressing towards India and could arrive on southern coast in 4 days.

Gold miners and gold delivering a seasonal low as we near into June.

Have added 10% on the current holding sub 13p.

Tonyb33 and all our other readers out there,

We are on a 30-32 days away from oil deficit count down if Hormuz strait situation stays as it is. The USA government want to talk down and perhaps manipulate oil prices to create popular support on the home front. However as each day passes with no solution a lower oil price accelerates oil consumption like a tap being turned up for higher flow. If oil prices were higher the tap at least would be running with a less increased flow as some otherwise demand use that is not essential may reduce. So the current bet on having a lower futures Brent price is possibly back firing to an even greater oil price in July if no agreement is reached or worse still USA gets bored and walks away for every strait and every transport pinch point to be screwed over throughout the globe.

I suspect we may soon be living in more interesting times.

TT

The market back in January was over supplied by 400M barrels of oil and the prices was struggling in the 60's. As a result of the Iran War 200M barrels were drawn down on the over supply and utilised by early May. On top of this, strategic reserve draw downs have taken place and so substantial supplies are out of the market that at some point need replacing. It is estimated that in 4 weeks time the original oversupply of oil that existed will become completely exhausted. We are in a count down to supply deficits being very real as product tanks empty (excluding in China) arise in different parts of the globe. Some refineries will also be short of oil to process.

The futures market on oil appears to be living on hope of an agreement, which from what many of us might observe appears to be poles apart. Many analysts already have considered that a higher oil price floor is in place for the rest of the year and that is based upon the material arrival of an agreement that both sides can accept to reopen the Strait with the previous status quo reinstated. The odd ship is getting out of Hormuz strait but essentially it is closed for the 95% most part.

The key for Serica is being at full production end of June, as they would perhaps in a small part contributing to any material deficit needing to be refilled in the market place. With so many oil fields on full capacity already it is estimated that we could still see $140-$160 spot price in July if the strait has remained shut throughout June and we are in the same place as now in getting any resolution.

Much of the commentary raised above was discussed recently between Bloomberg and Amrita Sen.

Undervalued. Before Iran war 216p at $67.7 a barrel on futures. On a 1 to 1 ratio with the commodity price it was 248p at $77.7 a barrel. Current price has the futures at $79. Forward cover for remainder of year is well into the 80's per barrel.

The future price of gold will also be more visible by the autumn. I suspect governments are already their printing FIAT USA are printing 40 B in USD Treasuries per month by the FED. If the previous top of $5600 is the norm, AISC of 1900 would be expected (33%).

The company has to prime up stored kit and may be allowing more time for commissioning servicing and building up spares etcetera. To be expected. Q1 could be a soft compared to the remaining 9 months of year 1. Never realistic to get 6k ounces out in December imop.

Have been adding today between 258-262. Dividend and investor presentation next month. I want to be holding strong. More pressure on BP to perhaps sell North Sea assets hopefully on a good deal to Serica.

Https://mausam.imd.gov.in/responsive/monsooninformation.php

This can be a useful link to keep an eye on. Gold needs a good monsoon season.

Yet another nothing burger outcome. The only progress is that both sides are talking and have not relaunched an all out conflict, but resolution is the same distance away as before. Oil spot prices likely to move up as stocks need to rebuild higher. A real supply crisis unfolds if the strait is still shut in 4 weeks. I am staying with Serica as full oil and gas production resumes during June. The company will give us an update in early June. It will be interesting to see if BP sells some of its North sea assets to Serica. Tony

Https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/04/amrita-sen-prices-in-the-west-have-not-risen-enough.html

Last interview that I have seen from Amrita Sen who I regard very highly on oil market analysis. Date was 4 May but still relevant today.

I also see little resolution in Gulf this weekend. Oil to edge higher.

Weekly chart gives a very interesting picture of what is happening and why it was held at 14.7p thus far. It confirms 12.9p as having very strong support.

Stand corrected for calling the wolf to the door. Interesting to see if we get some kind of RNS tomorrow. Possibly some institutional buyer interest or whatever.