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Other positions of my portfolio have gone up so I will hold Tullow. The whole energy sector is quite fragile. The positive side is that demand will rebound back. It takes 3 months for prices to diminish to previous spike levels and with material damage to production it could well be 6 months. Futures curves have retreated but remain above $81 a barrel to September. This alone takes us to 12.5-13p range with all the additional FCF.

Hence all the volatility.

Now worth less than when oil was $74 a barrel. Does not make any sense at this level. Added at 11.5p.

Pleased I held the free carry. What a surprise this morning. All you guys saying this would run much higher got it more than right. Hats off to you and enjoy the ride.

Josey, anything is possible. At this moment in time it is just a tree shake. Hardly anyone is selling at these prices. I added at 11.58 on what I sold at 12.98p the other day just in case a gift like this price for Tullow was presented. 11.6 to 14p = 20% gain. Not a bad result assuming events allow fruition.

Wall street wants to believe what Trump and his merry prankster crew has to say on matters. The track record is corruption, insider trading, no strategy, outright manipulation and lack of transparency or honesty. The hormuz is blocked and around half the production at best might be delivered with work arounds. The shortfall remains at 8M barrels a day with some oil fields going into shut down and they take several weeks to get on line. Tanker fleets are trapped or dislocated to find other supplies. Will Iranian oil be embargoed this weekend and will restrictions return on purchasing Russian oil? Will depleted reserves be filled up again this year. Not everything hangs on a truce being agreed and only one side has provided commentary as usual.

The situation is dynamic. Every time opens his mouth about Iran has an impact.

Tullow was re-rated to around 9.75p to 10p on refinancing. The company stated they earn $20M more annually on free cash flow if the price sold is $5 above Brent $65 spot price on the annual production. If we look at the futures price history since 1 January is is now $81 a barrel up to today. Today is the 106th day out of 365. $60M x 106/365 = $17.4M =£12.9M Yesterday enterprise value was around £183M on share price without debt included. The cash flow addition adds around 0.85p to the revalued price after financing. However spot price cargoes are assured high prices for at least another month around current levels so this takes us to around 11.3p area. As JPM has now implied $81 is the bottom for oil for the remainder of 2026. Tullow annual valuation is heading to 14p. This is all a minima. Higher valuations are possible if oil stays higher for longer or a bout of hurricanes interrupt North America supplies and so forth.

The April oil contract price on 21st for spot Brent is likely to close around $120 plus a barrel. Scarcity is likely to continual on oil on delivery schedules possibly for another 40 days or so with cargo contracts still not far off $120 a barrel. The pull back arising on spot prices begins in June. Refineries have been damaged in the gulf states and will take several months to fully repair and come back fully on line according to JPM. JPM expects sub $80 in 2028 at the earliest.

13th February a second carrier despatched towards Iran as they enter negotiations. Oil futures Brent $67.76 and Tullow SP was th8.75p.

17th Feb oil price drops to $66.88 and Tullow is priced at 9.91p.

20tTh February to 26 February oil edges up to $71 a barrel. 20th February Tullow production report and refinancing. and Tullow is at 9.91p.

The company has earned as a minimal of $20M extra cash flow adding 1.4p to share price which implies 11.3p. However the oil price is still running hot and if held at $85 as an average for all of 2026 which is quite feasible with all the repairs and disruptions, the share price minima becomes 14.1p providing production guidance is fully met. Additionally it would be expected the future hedging arrangements would be at a higher price for 2027 when compared with 2025/2026. The question is whether to buy on the basis of returning to normal supply and demand with a war cessation. In the background USD is getting weaker that supports higher commodity prices.

I was holding a lot of these shares at nearly 9% of my portfolio. Running with 3% now as a free carry. Never waste a rally as unexpected events can happen is one of my own rules. The world markets at times appear like a dance on top of a volcano. It may go higher as some of us newer to the share complete our portfolio adjustments.

Not just DENZ, it is an accumulation of technology developments as well to make hydrogen production far more economic. Company is moving into profit making and areas of UK industry are considering the new hydrogen technology over natural gas supplies. My message is that folks like Jmax should be piling into new exciting stocks instead of wasting time beating the pants off Tullow.

It has been going on for sometime how they manipulate over the weekend. The jump from 10.x p to 13p was front running the oil price income for Tullow to a degree. Another month of high prices and 13p becomes a floor rather than a ceiling. The important issue is not to miss out on other stocks. ITM (hydrogen energy) has moved from 62p to 88p in the last few days.

Bloomberg analyst confirmed that oil was not going back to its $68 low. The rest of the world supply of oil can not recover all the damage caused by this war. Hence hydrogen and other sources of energy are rising in value and they are cheaper than diesel.

I added today as a further average down. ITM shares in (hydrogen energy sector) took off today. As they win more contracts they might need lots of vanadium oxide catalyst material. At some point this share should start to gain interest.

Took early position to add MTL in my portfolio. After reviewing the junior gold mining sector this was my first choice. Will be adding more on any pull backs.

Https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/a-panicked-race-for-barrels-grips-global-oil-market-price-up-as-much-as-140/articleshow/130204411.cms

I agree with the assessment of Bank of India and several other sources that the oil price is not going to return to $68 a barrel where it closed on 26 February during 2026. It will take a number of months for the global market to restore supply and demand to reduce Brent oil prices. The best outcome appears to be $80 a barrel with a spread up to $85 as a general mean with the caveats on source quality criteria. Other geopolitical problems can arise along with variable disruptions that may normally occur. A lot of producers may have been high grading their production from wells during the sharp peak and may moderate later in the year as other supplies come on stream and lower the oil price. This still leaves Tullow in a good position and in a much stronger position when it was valued at 10p after refinancing and before the oil price moved much higher. The free cash flow improvement as guided by the company would still be $60-75M or so higher.

When the tankers leave, only tankers taking Iranian oil may come back in. The new bench mark is $95 or so a barrel for quite some time. High enough to cause some manageable demand destruction to partly keep the price where it is. The problem is not so much oil but all the other products that need to get through. The strait has to remove mines. Additionally ships engaged in repairs to facilities need to deliver materials to undertake it. The whole situation is an utter mess.

If it does retreat, I will just add more.

I looked at the RNS in a different light. The discount was 14% on the close price over existing shareholders finding the cash to cover it. The first issue is that it was probably done cheaper than involving brokers etcetera on a formal placing in terms of delivering the actual monies. Secondly, the company has access to a possible source in which they may have greater visibility on new policy developments and other public entities needing solutions to energy supply problems. It can also lead support into Trade missions and other technology collaborations. In essence the arrangement possibly offers potential sources of additionality. The company also an increased enterprise value without paying debt interest or using their own cash that currently pays some interest. Considering that no minister has business experience, this model at least involves some individuals to gain an appreciation of how difficult it is to make a sustaining profit that would create jobs, some very well paid and relate this back to their political masters. The public also like good news stories that deliver success between business and public sector which has been amiss in recent years.

Crystal clear from the presentation. Buy and hold with the runway ahead.

Smelling nice on the barbecue those shorters. Should be well done in 15 minutes.