Member Info for Tornadotony

La India NPV was calculated at a gold price of $2500 per ounce and AISC under $1200. NPV say at $4500 gold and AISC of $1800 on today's values gives a NPV return. The original price on full mine completion at 1.0 NPV gives a 17p price target and 8.5p price at pre-construction. At the higher AISC (50%) gold would be $3750 for the same metrics. $750 higher gold price is 750/1250 x 17p +17p = 27.2p and gives a preconstruction NPV of 13.6p with $36M in the bank adds 0.6p to the share price and so fair value at this stage is 14.2p. Quite often as the construction gets derisked the value increases by 40% taken the SP to 19.9p.

Heavy buying as the price drops. Something is going on which they do not want to raise. It may be commercial in confidence until any funder gives the all clear on construction. One is left to either join the dots or think the worse. I have not been invested long enough on this share to be sure either way. Sitting on my hands having averaged down quite a bit already. 6% or so of the portfolio is where I hold on a lot of stocks and that applies on this one. The one clue we were given is that full production has a market in 2029. It probably takes 15 months to construct a mine with commissioning time frames. Before that it takes 6 months to work through finance and regulatory processes. They have only 12 months to sort this one out at best to exploit market entry time lines.

Again BRES following gold. The fibs suggest gold is approaching 68% FIB line as worse case. Broadly speaking $100 per ounce from current present spot price which has taken quite a hit in the past week. Gold may well hold around here. The 7.4p/7.3p support lines may not be challenged. We are not far away from a low is how I see it. Can do with some good news during May if possible.

I will be writing less on here as I hold a more stable position on Tullow. TLW is 6% of my entire portfolio and 1/8th is free carry. I bought quite a bit more low 11p and took that off as profit to give some free carry. I share the info in case someone has gone in 100% on Tullow and ignores great companies elsewhere and to remind those new to share holding to keep a diversified positioning for whatever happens in future. All eggs in one basket is not an investment strategy which becomes investing on hope. All the best Tony T

Should appear in the coming two days. We shall find out if they are doing more than holding hands to contact the living.

I decided to hold the free carry and have not sold at the peak. If it hit 220p, I may have been tempted. I doubt I will see 62p here even with a market like crash. Interested to see how the story turns out here and it looks good to me.

With the prospect of converting resources into future reserves in the presentation the PE rate should be far higher.

The company secured an increased cash flow equivalent to a penny in the share price in Q1 and projected to earn 4p if the oil price holds $90 a barrel by end of the year. The forward PE rate is an absurd 3.0 as the company was still earning monies at $65 a barrel. At pre-financing the PE rate was 4 early on in 2025. What is incredible is that after selling so many assets the company is earning near what they earned at higher volumes last year. The share price barely covers the pay back on debt as well. Tullow should be near 14p on the RNS.

With the prospect of converting resources into future reserves in the presentation the PE rate should be far higher.

The company secured an increased cash flow equivalent to a penny in the share price in Q1 and projected to earn 4p if the oil price holds $90 a barrel by end of the year. The forward PE rate is an absurd 3.0 as the company was still earning monies at $65 a barrel. At pre-financing the PE rate was 4 early on in 2025. What is incredible is that after selling so many assets the company is earning near what they earned at higher volumes last year. The share price barely covers the pay back on debt as well. Tullow should be near 14p on the RNS.

The upside on what we expected above $80 a barrel of course 25% less than we expected not half as I mentioned before. However production is likely to be 10% above the mean forecast. Still see this as a very good RNS and we await to see what emerges at 9am.

The company gave a position that was true up to $80 a barrel. They have forecasted half of what we might expect in earnings above $80 for every addition $10 a barrel. If they got a cargo at $139 on spot it would e like a figure we would expect at say $110 a barrel. I have worked on future prices through out which correspond to what Tullow would have actually earned post hedging. Hence why I think we should e around 13-14p range. Lets see how it opens.

Production in the first quarter was at the high end. 26% above 34k barrels target.

My calculations were spot on. This should open above 13p. It is a great RNS. We can now see how the hedging works and with futures now looking more likely to be $90 a barrel up to December, Tullow are in a much stronger position.

Https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.calendar.options.html

Gold and silver options expiry was today. Asian markets appear to be buying the metal tonight. Curry may be proved right with gold lows being in play.

Https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-forecast-current-gold-cycle-positioning-0

We shall see if Curry charts are right tomorrow with the analysis flow. Elliott waves are 85% right and 15% dead wrong by those who are very good at studying the moves. Curry is the Elliott wave analyst that contributes to Gold Eagle News and if he was not good they would have somebody else.

Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/the-war-in-iran-is-in-limbo-it-could-leave-the-world-in-chaos/ar-AA21JVOQ?uxmode=ruby&ocid=edgdhpruby&pc=HCTS&cvid=69ef2b909b334d7fba4567207942a991&ei=25

16.5 to 19.

17.25 to 20.

19 to 28.

20 to 28.5

Opinion Forecast

22 to 30.

Logic is that every higher low gives more energy to go higher.

25,000 2nd buy was mine.

Mainly two fold.

1. Pull back on gold to retest a $4100 low. Mainly a seasonal event, but also as the oil wave price peaks and gets resolved may also contribute to a late spring early summer low.

2. Heavy rains in Philippines hampering gold production. Rains come in fairly soon and can run to September.

As for construction it is vital they allow training time for new staff once recruited and have a good operational team to oversee everything post commissioning.

Overall it does seem manageable to me. Any pull back on share price is a gift and more of an opportunity than a threat.

Https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/04/17/expect-increased-global-flight-cancellations-due-to-jet-fuel-shortages-energy-aspectsa-amrita-sen.html?msockid=077cc15f920560f817a4d77993e56160

Week ago 17 April.

The way to look at things is that a downtrend discount is an absolute gift. If you truly believe this will be 30p plus in 2029, why worry in a macro pull back. Cash in your portfolio is an asset and usefully deployed on big share discounts.