Member Info for Tornadotony

Graphite is needed in the hydrogen production industry. It is a critical raw material used in the electrolysis process to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, which is then used to produce electricity through fuel cells. Graphite's unique properties, such as flexibility, high thermal and electrical conductivity, and high refractory and chemically inertness, make it essential for this process. Additionally, graphite is used in fuel cells as a conductive material for bipolar plates, which are an essential component of the fuel cell structure. The use of high-purity graphite in fuel cells is becoming increasingly evident as the technology improves and the importance of using high-purity graphite in fuel cells’ bipolar plates, gas diffusion layers, and catalysts becomes more apparent.

A high oil price accelerates the use of hydrogen as an alternative energy source. I am invested in ITM who have quite a lot in the bank, at least $170M, Perhaps BRES could contact them. The UK is soon to embark on a big hydrogen energy supply programme. BRES is a a key hold in my own portfolio.

Tony

Certainly my buys are appearing as sells. For example the spread is 12.40 to 12.46 and my buy goes through at the sell price at 12.40. It suggests to me that an institution is reducing their holding as the only thing that makes sense. Hence why we are stuck on the 12 handle.

Stocks rallied sharply this morning in a reaction to some outrageous lies told to the American public by Trump. The lies were intended to boost the slumping markets.

The insiders front-running this had a good time, but the credibility of the United States and its financial system is being shredded.

Stocks backed off their highs once it became apparent that this was a cynical hoax.

Gold and silver were hammered again, as the Comex option expiration for the precious metals contracts approaches on this Thursday the 26th.

VIX collapsed initially and then bounced back up again as the conscious mispricing of risk was revealed.

Bitcoin spiked on the false representation of peace, and managed to hold on to a gain. Control frauds can ride on the waves of gullibility for quite some time, but will eventually fail. They always do.

This is madness, and it is the work of the darkness of the world. If you support it, this is what you serve.

Have a pleasant evening.

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This website page has constant advert interference and some words scribed get shortened or omitted altogether.

I have also kept a look at Marine traffic. Only 1 in bound tanker to Iran and a further cargo ship full of food to Iran. Nothing is happening. Everyone is asking who did he speak to on the Iranian side and he says they were representatives of Iran. Iranian sources say they do not know of any such conversation. At least Trump has back off.

Https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price Now $112.

Be fearful when everyone is greedy. Be a little bit greedy when everyone is fearful.

See what happens as the baby gets thrown out with the bath water.

They halt all production to do a lot of maintenance in October. Just when a really bad hurricane hits Texas.

Welcome aboard ripley.

Norway can only supply 30% of our oil and gas needs. It is one thing having a six month plan to reduce dependency on oil and gas in the next 6 months by 4-5% which might be achievable if lucky. It is far better to bid deliveries from North Sea from British wells than 100% higher from LNG USA cargoes with high shipping costs on top. The alternative is bidding from West Africa asap before China corners all the supply being produced as they are doing also from what is exported from Brazil. I wonder if anyone has any commercial awareness in the UK government.

China has ordered 9 million barrels of crude from all of West Africa for April loading. They have just about exhausted all they could get from Brazil for that month.

Europe has responded to losing LNG cargoes to Asia with bids of 70 euro MWH (100% increase on pre Iran war) to win USA LNG cargoes.

Norway confirms it can not repeat its efforts in 2022 on the onset of Ukraine war. It is already operating at full capacity and they can not increase production (30% of UK gas comes from Norwegian fields).

Qatari confirms that if the war stopped tomorrow that down time on LNG production is around 5 weeks or so. Damage elsewhere iin Gulf States s reporting to delay normal refined cargoes of oil being shipped for around 4 weeks as a minimum if the strait supply was opened tomorrow. Whatever is happening on futures, the spot price is probably running high for at least another month.

Most of the above is from Oil Price.

Jmax the oil price will not just drop like a rock if a ceasefire happens tomorrow. A lot of damage has been done. If we assume it takes a 100 days to get things resembling normality and over the next 100 days brent oil averaged $100 a barrel. We then have on 30 June an average of $88 a barrel for two quarters and it generates $92 FCF. This equals £69M on enterprise value at a PE rate of just 1. The value equals 4.7p a share. If a 4PE rate is applied as it is now then it becomes 18.8p value added to whatever the value of Tullow is at just $65 per barrel say 10p.

You can argue how long the oil price will remain over a $100 a barrel. A number of sources believe we are talking a few weeks at the earliest.

Jmax

The company says $5 increase over $65 creates $20M cash flow. 18,000 x$5 x 365 = $32 M minus opex and tax and you get around $20M.

TT

Jmax

Questions. 84% of all shares are owned by institutional fund holders. The largest holder may have been selling over to Goldman Sachs of late. 2.4% all retail is held on HL platform. 13% is subdivided into lower percentage holders on possible other platforms or very small funds.

As far as we know 50% of projection is hedged at mid range target production. Say 18,000 barrels a day not hedged is a possibility to work with. The average ceiling price was designed to give a mean figure of $65 a barrel.

Those are the only numbers we can work with until the next quarterly report.

Tonyb

Thanks for your inputs. I grew up in the USA tornado belt hence the handle name. Once remember 7 of them dropping out of the sky at once. Managed to run from a prairie into a crawl space under a house. The tornados missed us and I live to tell the tale.

The impact of this war on Tullow is certainly accumulative over time. It is likely having a huge piece of paper and each day you fold it in half and after after 145 days it reaches the moon. Brent crude mean average prices are climbing every single day. In July it will be start of hurricane season and the predictable strikes in places like Libya and Algeria kicking off and Angola, Ghana and Nigeria being absolutely critical in the supply chain. There was a good reason for the President of Nigeria meeting the King Charles this week and hopefully a few deals got done.

All the best

TornadoTony

Probably slip lower as usual and rally to close. This share does not like gaps in the chart. Exception of course is on a published RNS.

Duly bought more Tullow.

Hargreaves and Lansdown holders can now add. My buy 265.29. The cavalry has arrived.

Likely to reduce trading volume from retail to a degree until they get it fixed.