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I have not changed direction and want to see the mine get funded. I read a work in progress type of RNS and yet others assumed it was all done and dusted because that is what they wanted to read into it.
Chinasydrome
I have written my concerns arising with the RBW CEO on the LSE Board. I have blamed him for the main reason of such a pull back going on there and for him to stop treating the project as some kind of hobby.
Pensana was doing great when tons of money was flooding the market back in 2020. A major factor that has halted funding in the past was availability of money. Sadly the situation has not improved so the company is over the line when things are all signed off,
Yes I do have some Pensana shares.
Lessee
On the Nanoco Board folks are having to study every word on every communication from the CEO Brian Tenner. In the last RNS we thought shortly was a few days and it is now over a month. Company trading at an Enterprise value of £60M with $63M in the bank and a manufacturing plant ready to take orders. Tony
Lessee
I posted quite a lot of critique on the Shanta Gold board and took stick for it the other day because certain people did not want to hear it. They got angry when I posted news on Tanzania running out of USD and about Kenyan Minister wanting African sourced investors instead of those in Western economies on exploiting commodity resources in their country. I share info that I collect from a huge number of different sites.
Sundrum
When an RNS comes out a lot of people communicate on it.
I have mentioned the issue of what is going on in the USA markets for sometime on several boards especially on Centamin. For example, 10 months of false data on USA economy put out by LBS which zero hedge uncovered later on.
I also discussed bank failures and lack of dollars for projects in trying to get off the ground in Africa. In fact the USD shortage in Africa is causing a widespread problem.
As for the market crash many publications in the last week are showing a parallel situation to the dot com bust except it has extended to a far higher dangerous level. The article I posted that was published today sums it very succinctly. There is also various reports on dumb money going into the market as smart monies sell off. The problem for Pensana is not having things fully signed off and completed. They can not do anything about macro timing, but it right for us to be aware of something if it was not previously known.
Tony
Tony
My comments in brackets { }
The Company, has concluded a non-binding term sheet with the Longonjo lender consortium for a project finance debt facility (Facility). { I am not sure what non-binding means. Does it mean that neither side is yet committed. }
The Facility amount is up to US$156 million with a participation of up to 50% between each of the lender participants.
{ Explains what different parties are discussing}
The purpose of the Facility is to provide limited recourse senior secured project finance to fund the Longonjo mine, flotation circuit and refinery. {Yes this is obvious. }
The maximum tenor of the Facility is to cover the construction period and ramp up to full production plus four years to an overall maximum of seven years. { Not sure how much is needed in the first two years as we do not have details of annual draw down}
The Facility is conditional on obtaining guarantees from the relevant export credit agency for which discussions are well advanced. { It remains conditional until they get the actual approvals}
The Company is furthermore in advanced discussions with the Angola Sovereign Wealth Fund (FSDEA) and a member of the lender consortium to finalise the US$80 million equity component of the overall financing package. {This was discussed a year or so ago and have they already spent $15M of it}
To give you guys some idea of what I am concerned about is in the attached which is an aside.
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/fallacy-wall-worry
So was the 50,000 around 46 seconds in. Can not understand what is going on here. Just imagine if the result was the opposite with a 16% resource reduction. This should be at least 0.5p on the sell side to 12p.
Lessee
Have you noticed how low the volume has been. Share trading activity was minimal. The RNS today was more about a confirmation that funding entities have not rejected the proposal. There are a lot of items still to sort out. The gap at the open by the way was unjustified as the volume again this morning was not high in my opinion and created an unnecessary gap in the charts.
I can not see why they agree to pay 2.5p divis per quarter throughout the 2024/5 financial year and attract dividend buyers for the stock. It would support a much higher share price as at 30p the dividend yield would still read 33%. The company would earn some monies on the phased pay-out.
Tibbs
Thanks for contacting Kees Dekker about Shanta Gold. I got out of the stock around two weeks ago. Not sure if the direction of private offer will go but did not want to lose quite a bit of profit. I do agree with Kees that a lot of information is hidden from the Shanta Gold investor community.
All the best
Tony
There is a macro equity market event fear of a major pull back. Pensana can do very little about. A lot of people have invested 5% income on 1 year bonds. Equity liquidity is currently really poor.
Cowichan
Centamin Egyptian mining staff are they paid official rates to USD or unofficial? Does Centamin pay for all its reagent at official or unofficial rates. Do Centamin have an official AISC cost to produce per ounce or does it get converted somewhere into unofficial Egyptian rates? Tony
First of all it is unlikely after the events of last summer in my own opinion.
Any public offering has to be a premium to the existing share price. It would need to be around 30-34p to achieve a 75% approval vote.
The company has $60M in the bank for its 19p current valuation. The question becomes does the company want to borrow £30-35M pounds to be a private company which would presumably be taken over at a higher price in the future. The Board would do this if they had bagged a big contract for 2 years and knew they could probably get a repeat contract and a second order from another company. So if £60M of orders is out there and everything above that is a bonus. The company bags £20M for itself in just two to three years. If a takeover then happens they would get another £60M after taxes. Without confirmed orders it would be to risky to do.
1. Saturn made it very clear that they would withdraw an offer if it was 14.85p or higher as being superior offer, providing I assume, all Shanta staff working conditions and pay was probably the same. The bid on the table has shown no superior offer was forthcoming. We then have to ask why and do a deeper analysis.
2. The situation in Tanzania and Kenya is not that great when the political leader of Kenya only wants Africans to benefit financially from their mineral resources. Tanzania has demonstrated the same practices in principle. This favours the Patels hugely, but not ourselves. Tanzania shortage of dollars will mean they will hold on to as much as they can and so forget about historical VAT for the time being. Investors are leaving Tanzania and the President knows it hence the recent visit to Norway to get help from them. All I can say is good luck to the Norwegians if they choose to be the newest charity recruit.
2. Eric has looked at the half glass full on everything with Shanta. His job is to woo investors on how clever they are in supporting the company and its prospects and he is good at doing it. Dekker was somebody not to ignore and the new Luika gold output is most likely to fall to deliver much after 3 years. They are old mines and Eric did a wonderful job of putting the lipstick on it. The second issue was getting the exploitation mining licence in Kenya and that is far more problematic than Eric implied when he referred to them as wonderful people and everybody was enthusiastic. No mention of what percentage the Kenyan asset would need to be government owned.
3. The gold price is rallying tonight although it is very noticeable USD is hardly doing anything when I last looked. Gold has failed 4 times in a row over the past few weeks to breakout. Tonight is a fifth attempt. The Patels and the Shanta Board believed gold peaked in December 2023. So far they are right. It would be ironic that a spectacular rally happens just as the votes get counted and sway institutions to vote against it and hence the result is speculative in my opinion. The Shanta Board could be right or wrong on that issue and we may know all this by next week.
My wife and I sold out of Shanta a couple of weeks ago as it fitted with our portfolio requirements. I want to wish you all well in the coming weeks and support what ever decision you thought best to take. In making your decisions, I hope it is based upon from the perceptions of your own interests and circumstances. This is the last message I write on this particular Board as I follow this rule when selling out of a position.
Tony
Siko and other readers,
One of the largest sellers was retail with HL holders pulling out 10M shares up to 8 February from 1 January.
Van ECK has only moved down a little and oscillates between 9.5% to 9.62% of share ownership up to 31 December.
Feb 2024 figures.
DFA 4.02%
Vanguard 3.63%
Aberforth 3.34%
Blackrock Fund 2.01%
Jan 2024
Ninety One 2.58%
Blackrock investments 1.73%
Schroder Investments was 2.57% 31 December.
Recent buyers American Century Investment 1.75%
T Rowe Price 0.8%
BG Fund 0.2%
Norges Bank is possibly still 2.81%.
Tony
Main source FT
Both companies had expertise with good teams around them and slowly developed their asset over 10 years.
Both finally hit the big time after raising significant financing.
Both were taking on a major project that was larger than anything they undertook before.
Both subcontracted work to outside agencies they thought were the best available to serve them.
Both were fully in charge of their methodologies in delivering their tasks that looked entirely sensible.
Both were under a time significant time pressure for delivery.
Both were working with project delivery across many national borders involving complex supply chains.
Both gave positive delivery feedback at different stages.
Both had what appeared excellent people on the board that should have picked up weak areas in the methodology.
Both faced an array of problems and took short cut routes to keep in with timelines.
Both were having satellite projects that distracted from their main functions and distracted investors with more carrots to sweeten the investment story.
Both were overwhelmed by the sheer number of people they had to manage in their projects.
Both faced cost pressures to eventual end customers.
Both offered 300% plus growth prospects and ample opportunities to e acquired by larger companies.
It does not matter if it is a nickel mine or a world beating anti-viral. Failure goes back to mis-managing the methodology, not managing other people's activities or not understanding the delivery of their roles as they were to distant with so many suppliers in between, dealing with set backs and or delays and not allowing for them, a degree of over confidence, not bringing in skilled people when needed at particular stages, making some really obvious technical mistakes in the work plan delivery, leaving some critical positions unfilled to save money. Staff caring more about their own options and pay outs then the tasks they perhaps should have been delivering.
Tony (My last note here).
Strow
The best example and most recent was Synairgen 172p to 18p. (Failed to follow its own published clinical protocol by cutting corners to get to final results). Company ruined a valuable product grabbing defeat from jaws of victory. CEO also out played by bigger companies competing with their products. The key is having stocks below 10% in the portfolio and ideally capped at 5%. I recovered all the losses from it in February 2022 in that year. Synairgen price today is 5p.
Tony
I hope you guys are right and my dose of paranoia passes as I seem to find one shyster after another in AIM / small company stocks. Some days you just feel the world is full of pirates, liars and con artists. You wake up to a scam phone call, find your car door open with someone giving up on a hot wire job overnight and you look at a video from CEO who reminds you of a second hand car salesmen in your fine youth. My paranoia took me to search websites on dividends and I was just horrified to find nothing is real until it has transitioned from profit into debt in company accounts. Currently having therapy from a bottle of lager. All the best Tony
Hi Strow,
I took out my trading account long yesterday at 3.xp which was 75% of my HZM holding. I was trying to hold it until 6 April and take the hit and manage it through future CGT next year when my allowance and historical call down was very low. I have tried to see a way this can possibly survive and if I could I would buy it back, but the last RNS was more than just a hospital pass, but a trip to the morgue. I genuinely can not see how HZM can resurrect itself from this mess. Hence I used one of my own valuation models and it tells me that unless existing debt is all written off, a new project can not really take off. I do not know how that can happen and HZM survives. I have to go with Publican on this one as it has potential delisting all over it. La Mancha in the meantime have shown us the pig and are now trying to put lipstick on it. I wish everyone all the best and wish there was an example of a situation like this where a company survived and investors got most of their investment monies back. HZM was only 4-5% of my portfolio. I can recover it all over 2 quarters. I have been in this situation several times before. All the best Tony
PS I will follow one of my rules and stop writing on the HZM board having taken the hit, but I need a day or two to apply it as I go through post dramatic loss disorder.
Tony