Member Info for Tornadotony

George and his team may need to recalculate the project cost as high oil prices, if they stay high, will put everything up.

The rise in oil prices may impact a raft of decisions and costs and delays may happen all over the place. Kaz is the 12th highest producer of oil. Can the company get some tax relief on any of the proposed building costs especially if it is due to much higher oil prices. If anyone invested for awhile has a contact at the company and can find out if they would get more government help it may support the share price. I have taken a modest position as a new investor before this war event emerged. The kind of steel requiring vanadium in the oil and gas field has probably gone up in demand this week.

Low 8p would be quite a gift it it came to pass.

Added sub 60p. Will be a future gift imop.

SP are not selling my free carry in RBW but I have cash if it does go down. I just hope others are in the same position.

Unfortunately other events remind some of us of 2008 and the 1970's oil price shocks. The macro issues could swamp everything. On top of that various USA funds are now limiting investor withdrawals as poor investments decisions are being discovered. This coming week could be pivotal on a lot of fronts. Cash is likely to be a very important part of any portfolio as it may well be needed.

Kenya sale not sure what happened there.

Https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/ubs-raises-average-brent-price-forecasts-for-first-quarter-full-year-2026/ar-AA1XvKPn?ocid=BingNewsSerp

The February report indicated how much cash flow goes down if price was at $55 and $65 a barrel. Equally if it goes higher the minima increase using figures in the attached article is $24M increased cash flow for all of Q1. This assumed Brent per barrel staying in the low 80's for all of March. In the event of $90 a barrel for the rest of the year the cash flow increase would be over $100M. The company receives $40M from Kenya sail in June. Hopefully Ghana may take less tax off Tullow to compensate what they owe the company at present and encourage them to produce more oil.

1.2 M (measured) + 14 In (indicated) + 8 If (Inferred) = 7p

8 If = 0.4 M

8 In = 2 M 5.1 (M) = 7p M=1.37

RNS

1.2M + 16.4 (In) + 25 (If) = 6.55 x 1.37 = 8.97p

Hi Fulmar

RBW is 4.5% of my portfolio and is at 100% free carry. I may just settle with that outcome. If we do get a pull back which often happens with placings than I can build it higher. Tony

I am hoping to transfer ISA funds next month and I would not buy RBW at 24p. God knows when the management will finally produce a DFS.

SP the funding in principle agreed is $50M by USA sponsor and the cost to build is $310M. Of course the owners might foot the bill and they might go just private and we get shafted on some lousy share offer, but somehow I do not think it will happen. I have a core forever hold on some shares here. The higher price is putting me off at least buying more and I for one do not like getting the mushroom treatment from the company on where we are on a few things that have not been delivered of late. Technically the RSI is over 70 and stochastics have been on 100% for awhile now and it is overbought. If we do not get news soon this FOMO could end. It is not idiocy it is a view on risk.

Without clear news it may be hard to maintain.

Nc10 I was not suggesting for a moment that a fire sale would happen. In case we had a chart decline any new investor buying shares is unlikely to get it on an 8p handle after the increase in reserves in the ground.

On the DFS reserves the floor share price fair valuation became 7p-7.4p range back in the early winter. The valuation range now improves imop to 8.8p- to 9p. Now validates the reward price the directors gave themselves a few weeks back. It can be useful to look for potential floor bottom price (fire sale price) and being aware how far away the ceiling, currently 12p resistance is. Currently sitting somewhere above the middle.

Article in zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/energy-expert-warns-ubs-just-how-many-weeks-hormuz-shutdown-would-send-markets-out-control

All crew survived, but some hospitalised. Flagged by Palau. Happened mid-morning or so.

A drone hitting a totally full production storage site will be like an oil fire last seen in the Iraq war with Hussain. All about if USA can stop the drone attacks.

Https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.6/centery:26.4/zoom:5

Anton

The first casualty of war is the truth. Despite Levett doing her best if I got the surname right, her eyes were telling us it is a BS show yesterday and everyone wonders why plan A of capitulation did not immediately work. It just takes two tankers to go under in the most narrow space and nothing moves in that area for months. If they tried to escort them out it is extremely high risk. How many tanker workers would like to be the guinea pigs?

Tony