Member Info for Tornadotony

On zero for 5 hr and daily and the weekly is just 10.

If gold holds 2370s Centamin corrects to 126p area. If gold retreats to 2335 then Centamin holds 121p.

BT has no real experience in scaled up manufacture. Things can go horribly wrong between a pilot operation and a full routine assembly line and he knows his limitations. I suspect he will be NED on a few other company boards.

I sat on my hands this morning. I chose not to be trading in a chaotic gold options market. Fortunately my entire portfolio is running equal weight where as back in March it was double the size I hold now. It is disappointing seeing some winning positions disappear, but the miners in general are well set up for H2.

Crooty the H1 results do not include the $52M gold sold in July at far higher prices that was part of the 119,000. It was in the region of 15,000 ounces. Q3 is going to be a huge quarter with sold prices for July equalling or above Q2.

Closed in China and closes in USA later on. Hence the games played on gold price.

Oops 2.25 cents divi.

219,000 ounces. 45M free cash flow in H2 with delayed gold sales in July of $52M of gold produced in Q2. The results are very much in line with my expectation. 2.5 cents dividend declared for interim.

Theo

The 250k was to deal with cost issues in UK. It may for all we know be paying for Saltend staff costs that are separate from LJ. We are overdo a presentation at some point to clarify what is going on. Let us assume the South Africa bank / credit control agency says it just does not what to risk market failure because of Chinese pricing influence and the west is sitting on its backside. The Angola shareholder will say they have had enough and instruct Pensana to do a deal with China and sell them all the reserves and resources and cover mine build on a long term fixed contract. The shareholders would get bought out on a private offer as Pensana would delist. The price could be roughly 20p under Vwap or whatever for the past year. We would have to accept the offer or lose everything. MG would probably vote in favour of 20p delist. It would take 6 months to work through and allow some holders here to manage PRE losses against other portfolio gains. Not sure how you managed your HZM loss, but I recovered all the monies from that episode and gained far more elsewhere. If this one goes under I expect again my portfolio to deliver high single digit returns like last year. You take the hits along with the wins as it is all part of the investment risk. Tony

SP average was 566p in H2 2023. We shall know in a weeks time if earnings when doubled up for a 2024 estimate are plus $90-100M higher than what was generated for all of 2023. It may not be a stellar bottom line but it sure beats the pants off last year. In addition we have not had any exploration reserves and resources upgrades yet. When the company earns $300M it is worth 566p and when it was earning near $600M it was probably averaging over 900p. It is therefore quite reasonable to see the share around 640-660p mark. 15,000 ounces were probably impacted by rainfall. Those ounces remain at that mine and are not lost and being mixed with higher grade ore in Q3 and Q4. Most mines outperformed last year but 2 key gold mines performed worse and both are expected to do better in H2. We shall see what the impact of the peso has been, what cost efficiency measures have been achieved and how well they delivered on sales of silver and gold. Like in a football match at half time and score is 1-1 and we lost the lead. Everything is still to play for in H2.

Theo,

As you said to have experience with getting finance, am I correct in thinking that a no answer for funding is something that would not be subject to delays. Getting money approved for expenditure probably has a lot of administration and decision making mechanisms some of which uses external sources. What we do know is that the proposal has probably been with the banks for nearly 4 months. Also funding could be approved in principle and still has months of contract agreements having to be cross checked between solicitors.

Hi Theo,

The 28 March RNS clearly states the risk of non-funding. They also state they may have to raise additional funds as requested by the bank on what they asked for as a condition for having funds. They also emphasise their time lines may extend on what has been communicated to us. I therefore would expect a clarification RNS next week as to where they are with the banks. The £250,000, I believe was for the UK end of business costs. The money may have been made available as a decision outcome has been delayed.

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/rare-earth-metals-market-size-213000560.html

Theo,

It also says they are finalising arrangements for funding the mine project. The banks asked them to do a load of things and from what I gather they worked through the lot of it. It seems a huge amount of time wasting to ask applicants to re-cost everything yet again if they had no intention of funding the project. They also found more resources during the process. China would fund the project tomorrow if they could have all the resources.

Can not base it on averaging analysts projections for a quarter. The fact is the guidance is unchanged. They are mining high grade gold ore in H2. Overall the performance over 2023 is going to be better especially for silver. I still feel fair value is around 650-660p. H2 earnings report will be key next week.

I should add gold income was higher in Q2 over Q1 for Fresnillo this year despite lower ounces.

According to my maths, silver revenue is up $76M in H1 over last year. Gold revenue is down $31M with net revenue increasing $45M plus higher output on other metals. However, gold production has a higher output in H2 to look forward to. We do know costs on AISC will have gone down especially on silver compared to last year. 650p range is where Fresnillo should be imop.

Over the past two weeks or so an additional 350,000 ounces of gold was added in Comex. Yesterday a net 143,000 ounces was withdrawn from the Comex warehouse removing 40% of the build up. Someone is buying gold again and a lot of it.

Tibbs,

My putting on that article was like setting a hare running and I have to admit your response is like a greyhound coming out of the traps in lane 6. Tony

PS I despair with all politicians serving the elite and themselves. That includes both Labour and the Tories with both Johnson and Blair at the same billionaires parties at the same time.

If funding happens what happens to the share price?

Nothing or does it rise 100% as a full bagger.