Member Info for Tornadotony

Fleccy

Looks like Miliband did not read the small print by all accounts. Oil sector may be sending in a £20B to £40B bill to decommission wells in North Sea to Treasury. Make decisions in haste things end up in courts or amassing huge tax payers losses. Reeves will be having fit. Miliband ignored all advice and took his orders from just stop oil. The mistakes and incompetence is mounting here.

It looks like a rally is about to get started. Certainly won't be selling going into the close.

If the gold price exceeds $2460 for the remainder of this month on a modest rally, Centamin could spike to around 147p as earnings over the year could exceed $1.1B.

Entered into a position on this one using some spare cash.

Just gone the highest over the past month. Money going into some of the UK gold miner ETFs.

Excellent paper Hogsnipe.

TGL

I am wondering if the AWF could proceed funding the whole project once off take agreement prices are agreed. The banks appear to be interested in AI only despite the fact that the data centres to support them will have massive electricity demand in future years. Again it suggests that AI is only fad if the companies requiring materials to support them are not being funded.

Recovers upward advancing support line. It has traversed intraday on previous occasions. At this time rally is holding in Centamin and other mining stocks that have been doing well. I am expecting some fairly positive reports from gold and silver miners this month. Forward guidance they give as always will be important.

Autonomy, it depends on the share price. As the price goes higher and if you hold a big position, then selling some of it it off is de-risking. Having an exit price on what you are happy to achieve is always a good idea. It is like tipping point. If you are happy with what you got take the cash. If you believe having a go with the Q2 report if it gives a higher SP exit than hold on with the gamble. Everyone here will have a different idea on risk and reward and only you can judge what is right for you.

Https://www.st.com/content/st_com/en.html

Https://www.bing.com/search?q=st+microelectronics+santa+clara+california&cvid=cab046fc461c4565ab8bfa39e45d1dcd&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQABhAMgYIAhAAGEAyBggDEAAYQDIGCAQQABhAMgYIBRAAGEAyBggGEAAYQDIGCAcQABhAMgYICBAAGEDSAQkyMTU2NmowajSoAgiwAgE&FORM=ANAB01&PC=HCTS

Steve was not so much on goods although chicken eggs were up 55%. (Lots of other food processing were down along with transportation costs). Service costs for supplying automobile parts and machinery parts were up 3.7% and were 60% responsible for the signal. It looked temporary to me and not indicating a new trend to shift opinions on a September rate cut. Excuse for quick wash and rinse by traders. Centamin uptrend still holding.

Forecast Centamin share price before report, based with on-going chart uptrend not changing is around 140p on 24th July.

The average gold price sold in H1 is likely to be $2215 per ounce (give or take $2) We should expect 225,000 ounces minimum. Perhaps 235,000 ounces maximum. I will run with $1375 AISC with anticipation of it closing out much lower after H2 with more ounces mined. This gives $840 per ounce profit margin minus 50% - 3% Royalties and - 7% lets say for Capex not included in the AISC. $13M non AISC Capex off. $176M revenue with $5.2M in Royalties. Leaves net profit at $85M or 8.1 cents per share or 6.28p per share. Annualised say 12.5p per share gives 125p at 10 PE rate and 150p at 12 PE rate. Although gold is red hot in this part of Q3 it is most likely to be near the H1 average price in Q4. 160p incidentally requires gold staying above $2300 for the rest of this year as well as hitting production forecasts and the pound not appreciating that much against USD.

Looking forward to Sunday England vs Spain final.

In the meantime on RBW.

Reetech 0 - PI RBW investors 2

Scorers Tornadotony from the penalty spot. Smartpunter in open play breakaway move.

The macro market looks risky for NG this autumn imop, but it looks far better by spring 2025. The share is currently overbought. At some point it might fall back to fill chart gaps that go all the way back to 890's. The hype may evaporate eventually and then its earnings data from electricity use that will reveal if a recession is going to happen. If the data says no recession then doubts fade but some scribing on here about risks are possible correct but more likely for other reasons.

The issue is how much Capex spend is going on as an extra $50M was needed to reduce AISC costs by $200 per ounce in 2025. I have reduced to an equal weight holding and booked some profits. 36-38p does look a top area for me the RSI is approaching overbought have just hit 70 and slow stochastics are on 94%. Rally has less than 4 weeks to run and peter out next month. Would be great to know exact day of Q2 report. Expecting all precious miners to be in a serious downtrend by October. Anyone missing this summer rally should get a good entry by December for another 2025 rally. Gold is putting in a glorious top before everything hits the fan.

California based fund holds 3.16% of company. Same State where STM I believe have a production plant. Not sure of previous holding as we just got 3% as being crossed. They certainly believe in something.

Centamin reports 25th July and it is Quarter 2 plus H1 compiled together. Gold Options expiry is also on 25th July and so a lot more action happens possibly later that day. Gold in the meantime is seeing very little activity at Comex since the 18% pull down, but has tended to go up along with USA stocks. A higher valued pound give 5 ounces for under £10,000. It is important to bear in mind that Centamin SP is priced in pounds and currently has a headwind of a stronger currency and hence some of the resetting we see in the share price on USA open.

Reetech

You will do anything to spray manure on this company and the whole sector. Especially if the share price edges up a little bit. Your only motivation is to please your Chinese pay masters. Everyone can see China is having an economic war with the west. Rare earths go into military kit like fighter jets, ships, drones, missiles in huge volumes. Hence the desire to limit that independent supply. After 80 years some of us went to Normandy to remember our family members who died in the liberation of those beaches. Some of us value our freedom highly and are so happy we do not live in a suppressed country like China. I thank God RBW exists and is an asset that may prove critical in maintaining our way of life. Whatever you put on here will not deter people like me calling you out. Tony