Member Info for Tornadotony

I gave figures last autumn and was spot on and it resulted in Dan Betts recovering his balance sheet by raising $25M. The fact is that the company has been burning money with plant running under performance. Anybody can go through past accounts and see what the spend rate is which in fact is quite consistent. There is visibility on what it costs per quarter to run both those mines. I am encouraging you to do some real maths here and to view the possibility of having to service $200M debt that could be paid off say in 3 years (The company has to replace mined out ounces through exploration expenditure and that cost has to be factored in) if of course Daniel Betts can run the company with minimal problems and the gold price stays roughly where it is.

What is the remaining mine life of those 2 mines and what is the cost average return to investors over 7 years if debt is spread over that period of time and what it the net profit that you can achieve divided by 800M shares. I leave it to folks to do the proper maths between you over the weekend. The maths may decide what you do next week. I am only encouraging to get out calculators and do what you should be doing. Working with a $200M debt is a defence model to play with here. Daniel Betts has not provided you with all the facts as he may not known them himself. Tony

Yanfolila mining costs are between $29M-31M per quarter depending on stripping rates. Lets assume it is in the average of $30M for each quarter. If production is 20,000 ounces in both quarters perhaps some more in Q4 than Q3 the cost of production in H2 becomes $1500 AISC however the annual $AISC price becomes $1715 for Yanfolila when including H1. The AISC does not include administration costs and a few other items like licences for Dugbe or whatever. The true costs along with taxes and royalties all taken from the profit on gold price sold would give $15M annual profit at the very best and it has to hit production levels and not encounter any more issues until 31 December and they are clearly trying to do high grading to do it.

I leave someone else to workout what happens to the other mine, but at best the figures imop give breakeven for H2 if nameplate is maintained from 1 October. I suspect the annual debt figure will be near $200M. Again someone else can model how it gets paid back as financing cost on top of AISC costs and whether ample mine life years remain to give a return to investors.

I am not down ramping to get an entry. I am hoping to help some of you who are unsure how to work out what the proposition could be here.

Tony

Short term focussed initiatives probably means high grading of both mines. In trying to solve the on-going crisis management is creating a massive problem in 2025. The $153M debt does it include future royalty payments and taxes due to governments. I am not sure if the figure on debt has been audited and what they have delayed in payments which are now due. They will have to provide proper accounts next month and if they are delayed it is a huge red flag.

I do not hold any here so will be brief. The AISC to produce and the price of gold sold tells you everything. The RNS is a disaster and once more it is a continuation of things not going to a geotechnical mining plan. The CEO has made assumptions where he thinks gold is without proper pre-drilling to deliver mine planning and hence what has happened at Yanfolia. Company debt costs are skyrocketing.

I should stress that I am not an expert on how it all works. Anyway you have exactly what was televised.

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-08/anti-racism-protesters-give-uk-respite-after-days-of-riots-the-opening-trade-08-06-lzl8bhuu

Go to 1.13 when Lawal (coloured lady is talking to Anna Edwards. It is near to the end of the presentation.

Source of information was a Bloomberg interview this morning with a corporate bond dealer.

A funding window for emerging market deals in mining commodities especially those helping towards net zero outputs has opened this morning. Funding total available for emerging markets was $300 Billion.

Theo,

The USA markets are putting in a bottom this week, but could move back up once more reliable data appears. The USA interest rate cut next month also comes into focus. NdPr prices are edging out of a bottom in prices. We also have geopolitical tensions going through the roof and the case to have adequate alternative sources for commodities is stronger than ever before.

Pensana are likely discussing issues with major shareholders what to do next. They have been following their wishes in receipt of funds. The AWF could in theory advance another $10M towards the mine building if they wanted to. Pensana have in fact secured 80M towards the cost and awaiting the banks which have had weeks to decide what to do. They clearly have not rejected the proposals as we should have heard ages ago. Instead they are on hold awaiting to see what is happening in the markets and that governments will continue to support an independent NdPr market from China.

Incidentally it would not take much stock buying to drive the share price up again. The share sale volume is tiny.

Hounde expected to improve by 55,000 ounces in H2 with the company having an upper range of 85,000. Assume bottom of target.

ITY will mine out less in H2 in accordance with mine plan and could be 45,000 ounces less.

Mana is consistent and looks like 20,000 up on H1.

We have a new new mine with a target of 90,000 but lets us say they only hit 60,000 ounces well below nameplate. So 470,000 ounces in H1 looks like 560,000 ounces thus far with a total of 1,030,000. The performance of the senegal mine was very low in H1 and has a forecast below 360,000 ounces. However they are expected to perform over 100,000 ounces greater in H2 despite missing target. Despite everything aired by an analyst. The bottom end of the target range is building in quite a miss on production numbers.

470,000 ounces in H1

£22.80 would be a fantastic price in any case.

Added despite the RBC note.

Kando

We might get some small rallies in the coming weeks and hence it is useful to have a position on a stock with lots of liquidity. We shall see where things go in a couple months time, but the time to buy is after a seasonal low is in and it does vary each year like the date of the Chinese New Year. Tony

Goldinvestor

Consider a re-entry late autumn. Centamin bottom at 2225 gold is possibly around 106p when taking into account 17% production increase, more money in the bank compared to last year and higher average annual gold price sales. Anything below 106p is a gift.

I cashed out on the ISAs last month. However, still holding Endeavour as the gold produced in H2 is 34% higher than in H1 in my trading account. (Golden rule be more defensive in ISA holdings as you have no CGT on losses). I tend to cost average buying in slices as stock retreats. I do the opposite during a major rally building profits.

A profit is still a profit and you still got one. Tony

4% of the company shares could be bought back if enough people want to sell at 13.6p.

Cash in the bank and plant and equipment is 11.6p per share. Now just plus 2p for everything else including patents.

That was Jim Curry at Gold eagle.

Curry predicted the stock market pull back as early August to mid August. To be followed by a significant new high rally. The USA data will get revised on next NFP as the July data is heavily impacted by incomplete statistics and relying on averaging on smaller data sets. This occurs as a result of high levels of non-returns both impacted by Hurricanes and those staff taking holidays. Bloomberg warned of faulty NFP and unemployment data days before they were published. The market has essentially responded to poorly analysed data, but traders wanted the current volatility.

I will also be writing less on LSE until October as well.

USA July data is quite often heavily revised and is wide of the mark. Events that triggered a pull back today were a likely false flag imop.

Reetech,

No details on recovery rate and also the grade of ore to be processed.