Member Info for Tornadotony

Debt increases to $183M. Last chance saloon Betts has taken another gamble at the table. No mention of ounces likely to be produced by end of year. The incompetence of running a mine is just awful. The CEO is beyond hopeless.

Holds no positions in Hummingbird myself, but feel for those taken in by Daniel Betts. Never invest in a company where the CEO gets the position on family connection and not competency.

My core holding is not for trading and awaits quarterly reports. If Endeavour does drop below 1725, I would move back to a major overweight position. It is something I would only do on a FTSE 100 or significant FTSE 250 stock.

Thanks for correcting the divi date, Slowly dropping to 30p as the pound goes up.

I do hope there is an RNS funding LJ this week. Otherwise it is a pattern we have seen before. It is the best time for LJ to be funded.

Https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=33.84&From=CAD&To=GBP

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EDV.TO/

Close was 1877p in Toronto. UK side will be gapped possibly higher unless the gold options trading in China brings down the gold price. Toronto trading is hotter after after 14:30 Canadian open on most trading days. Endeavour can buy stock in either market on share buy backs. Endeavour behaves in a similar way to Fresnillo. Stamp is an extra 9p or so headache, but hence trade sparingly on this one. What is hopeful here is that production on the gold is much higher than H1. If it goes into 1700 handle it is a good position to buy and hold. We get our 30 odd pence dividend on Thursday paid out into accounts. Tony

Steve

1847p was hit 7 minutes after Toronto open to close chart gap. Could have traded the move, but busy with other things. Core holding in Endeavour retained. It had doubled in size on the way down to 1508 or so. The halve I bought was sold after getting dividend around 1840p. Amount held on doubling was risky and I needed to halve to recover some losses on another stock that got messed up in August/early September. Overall delivering a profit for 2024/25. Core is in a great averaged down position. Tony

In the title.

Gold options expiry 25 September. Also triple witching as we close quarter. Expect lots of actions and quite often, but not always, it is best to sit on hands.

Gold options expiry is on 25 September.

Significant amounts of gold ounces has gone into Comex yesterday (usually not good for gold).

We shall see how this all unfolds in the coming days. PMIs suggest recessionary environment is unfolding.

Centamin is probably a safe hold with a bid actually in place.

It is expected that the Scheme Document, containing further information about the Transaction and notices of the Court Meeting and Centamin General Meeting, together with the Forms of Proxy, will be mailed to Centamin Shareholders as soon as reasonably practicable. The Centamin Meetings are expected to be held on or around 28 October 2024.

By 28 October , holders should be able to judge if it is a good deal or not. A lot can happen in 5 weeks like a global market equity crash.

Thus far a break out awaiting validation with a closing price.

The canary in the gold miners is whether the FED cut is suggestive of a heavy downturn in USA. The beige book is flagging a possibility along with Powell's avoidance not to go into unemployment data (which may be false just like job growth numbers that eventually had to be corrected. The FEDEX data today is yet another red flag in a slow down which is picking up a slow down across a lot of industries that use FEDEX trucks for deliveries. Many sources are talking up the USA economy as they always do but multiple evidence is arriving in data being reported by CEOs. The latest trend is no more hiring.

Gold miners do feel like they are being shorted as a hedge with gold rising higher. If this is so it was a tactic deployed in late summer 2011.

Hi Tibbs

Zero hedge reported data in the beige book on the USA economy after the rate hike. The beige book provides forward looking data from 11 Regional Federal Bankers. The results have set the alarm bells ringing of a major recession building up that may well involve significant unemployment. Hence the reason for the 0.5% cut in USA rates. Powell avoided answering questions about USA unemployment. 7 out of 11 USA regions are seeing no economic growth and several are already in recession. The 4 areas delivering growth are quite modest and the trend is negative just about everywhere and hence why Goldman who knew the data predicted a 0.5% cut. The outlook is a global recession building up as both China and USA are heading in the wrong direction regarding economic growth.

Gold is doing the usual pre-crash and as things unfold we could see stocks including gold miners and gold retreating with it. The assumptions for late next year could still be favourable for gold and the miners, but it is possible that some CEY holders may wish they took profits when they could. When pricing in gold to everything around us gold is at or very near the previous high peaks on gold in the past and were then followed by severe down turns. The centamin board may well be seeing an outlook that is similar to those giving comments on the data in the FED beige book. I do not think the Centamin Board are lazy they spent years clearing up the mess of a previous CEO. Tony

The question is whether the current move higher on low volumes is real momentum or based on a few people taking a punt on hope. We should apparently know next week. If it was a slam dunk I would be buying, but we have been here so many time before I have stayed at current investment levels.

Hard to see who is buying gold to go higher. Not sure if folks what their homes are worth in gold ounces. It has dropped hugely since January. For 340 ounces in the UK it buys quite a nice home. A bit like the 2011 gold price peak.

The offer for Centamin is a good one. The issue some are not taking on board is that Anglo Ashanti need to recover the purchase price and offer margin to their shareholders who take on future risk. When you add a 20% return margin per annum it delivers the kind of proposal that was submitted. The CEO has delivered a great package of prospects outside of Sukari, cleared up past problems and presented an excellent selling prospect. It would be challenging for CEY to hold a 160p plus valuation over the coming years. Hence why they took the deal and ask you guys to accept it. 2024 and 2025 will be be the best years to sell a goldmine business imop.

Took a chance that they may get to 99% plus purity with a top up buy. Averaged down by 0.25p. Really need that economics report to make sense of numbers. Could not find the discount applied at 96% but suspect it is a lot. Hence the delay.

Thanks for explaining the CIC update more coherently SP. Still on my first coffee. In some respects having 10% more reserves in the previous RNS has been nullified in having a delay. It looks like the last chance to get to purity on what they are putting together. It is a third time lucky kind of shot. I sense they can still do it. They also have a less pure product route for the market at discount pricing for secondary processing elsewhere. I dare say other funders wanted George to go on the proposed route and it makes sense to me. Tony

The USA process only achieved 96%. They have six process upgrades planned to get over 99%. Six months delay. Whatever the result later on has to be the final product.

Dasut

USD RSI daily 32.9 and stochastics zero (oversold) weekly 31.4 RSI and 9.7% stochs (on oversold).

Gold RSI daily 66.3 and stochastics 72.4 (overbought) weekly 85 RSI (heavily overbought) stochastics 91% overbought.

Betting currently is dollar clobbered and gold goes up. Things can get overbought longer than expected and same with oversold. We either get 0.25%, rates go up, gold goes down and USD goes up or it is 0.5% with continuation as we are or they sell the news on gold and rally with USD anyway after a 5 second spike up to take out stops.

Gold miners in general need a pull back so they can power up in October as we await Q3 reports. God knows if it will happen and positions remain overbought.

Oops not to be so overvalued in third line.

The 1970's in USA, gold ran well ahead of USA shilling house price index by over 300%. It took all the way to 2001 for gold to match up with USA house prices. The banking system was quite determined for gold to be so overvalued ever since. The relationship changed in 2001 with both USA wages of top 10% of earners and the annual growth of national debt clearly being added into the shilling index . Just adding in National debt to 1 January 2023 to the shilling index gives a gold price of $1702 per ounce on 1 January 2023. The top 10% of the population had wage growth of 26% since 2001 (probably above inflation). This gives gold fair value at $2144 per ounce on 1 Jan. 3 additional factors together for this year probably add 8% giving us a value for September of around $2315. per ounce. I therefore believe gold is getting ahead of itself on dollar terms. This does happen periodically and gold at some point will retreat. The times to invest are usually when gold has fallen behind on value as it was back in January.

If we assume debt, wages and house prices increase 8% per annum next year this would give a gold price of $2500 for close of play in 2025. The gold price current rally is in advance of value is not suggestive of a recession, but more towards increase debt and a value higher than 8%.