Member Info for Tornadotony

Gold investor

Whatever happens if you have a 12 month plan on gold miners it should succeed. We all choose different kind of paths to get there, but in the end the results are probably similar if the pathway goes to plan. I hope you banked something in this latest rally and have more cash reserves for what may lay ahead. Tony

I have put all gold miner stock up for sale at a sell limit 10% above current prices. Just in case there is naked shorting going on as they can not use my stock that is in the order book.

Reetech have you realised the absolute essential item/issue missing in that communication and on the company website and university of purdue communications on this.

The share price is currently less than when gold was $100 lower in price. Broadly $180p or 10% less in value on the SP. Makes no sense.

I think in sterling it was equivalent to 1712 area. Despite gold rally last night. The volume is dominated by Canadian open.

Https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Most days Jesse posts the latest on Comex, but if you google Comex warehouse gold stocks you can see it there. Jesse gives options dates as well. Thw warehouse delivered out lots of gold recently. The figure in the attached is at the low seen in previous gold peaks this year. The information of course is 24 hours old and not in real time wherever you choose to get the latest warehouse movements.

I am not running my own book. I invest mainly on a sentiment basis and what I see in charts, Comex movements and people like Jackie Chan who get it right 85% of the time. When everybody hates gold and gold miners, I am a buyer. When everyone is so excited and see prices going to the moon, I reduce and take profits.

Goldinvestor,

If any of us could get this perfectly correct we would have retired ages ago. I actually try to be careful with how I word things. So 140p was a projection based on breaking out above 2500 on Centamin. A downturn on gold and gold miners is coming at some point. I have been very successful on gold miners. Last year 18% portfolio growth added but non precious miners stocks took 7% off with net at 11%. The same pattern is happening this year thus far.

We shall see today if gold breaks resistance or not. The only reason gold has rallied is due to geopolitical events concerning Israel and Taiwan at the same time. Those events overtook anything I wrote before. I still believe however, that gold prices may eventually retreat. My main position is currently on Endeavour.

Https://goldprice.org/

The divi pledge works out the same as the best fixed ISA rates you can get at this time and it is for two years running.

Tibbs,

The issue with Centamin is that it has one major mine with above ground and underground ore and it operates in one country. When everything goes well it is fantastic, but if anything goes wrong as seen in the past, the SP can halve.

Companies with multiple mines in different countries also have issues, but the volatility compared to a single mine in a single country operation is less. Doropo might eventually help, but investors should always be aware it currently has that issue. Tony

Also some over performance. Incredible they still clearing $1000 an ounce above AISC that is likely to go down sharply in H2 and we are 16% of the way through. Added again this morning.

They spent $46M more on inventories. They added $68M to depreciation costs. They doubled the monies on profit share to staff by over 100%. They increased the stock pile of ore by 85%. They hammered the daylights out of the profitability to give a very low level of earnings. The company clearly did not want to look as if it has tons of money available for the new Government to find ways of taking off them.

I have sold out from Fresnillo after making a decent return. The issue here is a political one and how fairly this company will get treated in future. The measures taken have created resilience although they have reduced shareholder returns. I think we all know why that decision was taken. The company is also wary of a return to $23 on silver and a $2000 or so gold price in the accounts and have modelled mine plans in the event of that occurence. It is wise for them to do so.

I am expecting volatility in gold and silver prices in the intermediate term although overall Fresnillo itself as a company is reasonable to good. I wish all the long term holders do well and will only write here on re-entry of positions. Tony

The issue was the bottom line profit was up only $29M from H1 2023. The issue in the background is that cost reduction is not happening at all. The AISC priced in gold is around $1570. I anticipated $45M increase in profit so it is a miss from what I expected. 570p is about right at this time.

Https://cib.absa.africa/sector-expertise/resources-and-energy/

Not sure if this is where the good or not so good news comes from but thought I would share the website.

Https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-exclusive-update-july-27-2024. Just encouraging some caution in having some cash spare in the portfolio. Expecting a bad August myself and we could see Centamin back at 112p for a short period of time if what Chan and others see as coming about. India jewellery trades want to stock up on cheaper gold prices to make jewellery in the autumn and they did not get a good deal back in May. Monsoon season was good and tax arrangements reduced to help the trade sector. Centamin likely to rally hard later in the year possibly as Q3 reports flow in.

Cowichan

The bigger issue is 6 Million ounces of gold dumped on the Shanghai exchange at close of options on the 25th. The big gold traders have pulled out. Not sure you are reading sponsorship of a conference directly. Gold is like Apollo 13 with Houston we have a problem. The precious metals market is looking a bit shaky.

Everything written on a message board should be taken as opinion only. Nobody should make financial decisions on other scribers perceptions and views. The aim is to be helpful and sometimes a negative post reminds people not to put all eggs in one basket and have a diversified portfolio. Having some fear or doubt can curb greed.

I for one believe the funding will arrive. If an African bank consortium will not partly fund a project in southern Africa 40% backed by a Sovereign wealth fund then I wonder if the banks would fund anything at all. If the proposition was poor the answer would have been no weeks ago. Pensana have done everything FSDEA wanted them to do.