Member Info for Tornadotony

To Kees Dekker

Every hospital may have a different cohort of Covid-19 infected patients with varying age profiles and different underlying morbidity of other clinical issues not related directly to Covid-19. So the more frail the group is being treated the higher mortality when compared to another hospital that has a generally fitter younger group of patients being treated. As a consequence survival stats will have a significant range from say 25-90% mortality in ICU. The variance does however formulate ethical protocols as to who should be prioritised on the basis of best chance of recovery and giving a palliative pathway for those who would not benefit from the intervention.

There is one important issue that I have to mention which a virologist would be quick to point out. Normal influenza has incubation phase of 4 days and the infection rate to other persons is 1 to 1. The infection rate of Covid- 19 is double at 2 to 1 and the incubation time table can be high as 14 days. It is for this reason why we have lock downs to breakdown this transmission rate.

I should add the approach of dealing with Covid-19 was having more Nightingale operational set ups away from existing hospitals and that Covid-19 suspect cases all go to prepared isolation units. The lack of testing that has been on-going is a reflection of the decimation of pathology testing services that have gone on for the past two decades in the NHS that was done to save money. The mentality has always been there is no value in normal test results (in the heads of politicians and administrators who does not know what it means for somebody to know they no longer have a disease, or that it has allowed a more definitive diagnosis through other tests). This stupidity has allowed NHS workers not having access to resources to be tested in the current situation.

The views of John Lee are correct. I have expressed these on other LSE Boards and my background is that I was a qualified immunologist. I speculated the actual mortality rate of Covid-19 as being 0.35%. The life years saved in what the government is doing must be compared to life years being lost by doing a lock down programme. I would expect an additional UK wide increase in the rate of suicide caused by economic issues as well as isolation issues. Over two months this could exceed 400 UK lives. The loss of life years on disrupted cancer treatments and cancellation of clinical out patients monitoring, diagnosis and on-going therapy across all diseases is likely to be far higher and could reach 10,000 in a 3 month period.

It was for the above reasons that I am a very strong advocate that the lock down has to end by week 6 or 7 as the knock on fatalities will emerge and could exceed those being lost by Covid-19 and surpass lost life years by a considerable amount. I support a lock down on all international travel outside of UK for much longer.

Hi Tony,



Yes, we will do a press release when it is complete.



Process at the very tail end now so should be in the next few days. End March is usual timing, but is does sometimes run a few days out.

Just got the above.

I am not sure if others are experiencing issues with banks over the past two days but I have. Everything is on a go slow as they appear to be overrun trying to deal with the consequences of Covid 19 lock down on businesses and people.

Have not taken any positions this morning on Centamin or anywhere else. Waiting for USA open and coronavirus news. Critical to see Italy and Spain get to plateau very soon and edge towards recovery phases. Russia and SA talking is good news on oil front. Tricky trade scalping opps exist but I prefer to watch today.

118p looks about right for USA open this afternoon.

Could be a quiet open we shall see.

Its not business as usual anywhere. We could an RNS at 1pm. The company were offering up half the overdraft arrangement and a guarantee to meet all interest payments to next RBL. It makes sense to kick the can down the road until September. The company has not dipped into the RBL draw down monies at all.

Just a $1 off if that. All sides are talking. Small fall in Brent is demand side effect.

USA may withdraw its military presence in Saudi Arabia. Not a bad idea as the rest of middle east bar UAE will desire to throw the kitchen sink at the Saudis. Very interesting day tomorrow awaits. Alarm set early. Also hoping Tullow delivers some good news.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-03-31/Gold-silver-and-platinum-all-look-bad.html

It may not gap at all in the first 60 seconds or you get a daft spread of a buy at 121.8 where they buy 5 shares on A trade and the sell is 119p or something like it. Things can change dramatically overnight. Saudi Arabia is a couple of hours before UK open. If oil has tanked as the Prince dump 5 million barrels per day into the market and force 15 million barrels of production to go into rig lock ins elsewhere (where an oil field can not sell oil to the local refiner as they in turn can not sell the products refined from the oil) and sets off a chain reaction than gold is going south in a big way as Iran, Iraq and many other countries will sell gold to support their economies as they earn practically nothing from their oil. If the Prince does nothing and says they are adding a little into the market and sets a floor price say at $28 Brent on futures than gold may well stabilise and be back up to $1610 and Centamin does very little tomorrow. I must stress what anybody does with their shares is their call. Everything I write on here is just my opinion which I share and can be wrong or correct. If you read Bubba's comment on Kitco today he is spot on with my own view and I only just read his article a few minutes ago.

All the best. Tony

This could well be on 110p tomorrow and if that does not hold we could be on a low 90's retest with gold way back down again by Friday or early next week. Good time to catch a falling knife is on a double bottom. Well you all know how I will play it as I will put entry trades on here if it happens.

If Saudis have a change of heart and do not dump oil tomorrow and the price holds then gold edges back up. So if you bought your relying on a certain prince not being stupid. Basically a further crash in oil pulls down the banks which in turn pulls down the whole market as it symbolises a collapse in economic demand for just about everything than groceries.

Opens up downtrend to next support around 110p. Fres get getting hit very hard along with a few others.

Having another go at 124p. If this fails 121p could be tested.

CEY getting sold into at 124p and is not looking particularly strong. It failed on a double top around 127p area earlier this morning. A question of whether support at 121p holds or not. The physical gold market barely has a pulse and of late is propped up by paper gold investment buying. Just needs a couple of banks to off load physical gold to support populations and gold can be back down 1450 before we all know it. The CEY price would find support at 93-94p if that arose.

It may be only 2.35 cents but this company badly needs the cash. Additionally support programmes/loans from banks that may support the company would be denied if they pay out dividends.

Both were correct in that 22.x was spot price and 26.x was the futures price. They are in contango which means that traders are buying higher oil volumes in the futures market to store. It also tells you that demand is collapsing further in the spot market because of all the lock downs in countries with Covid-19 and that the spread in the price from futures has widened. Furthermore oil refiners have less demand for oil products they generate and they do not want to take more cargo deliveries of oil. This in turn may force some oil fields in particular areas near to those refineries to shut down as transport of oil to refineries further away makes the processing of oil uneconomic at current prices. Where this occurs it is referred as a rig lock in. The number of rig lock ins is now climbing.