Member Info for Tornadotony

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-chinese-lab/news-story/0bc7c4f52892eb2e51e788b8e2e45c07

I must admit its a bit far fetched.

It would have been handy to have an oil fired power station.

https://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5N2C230Y

It has gone through the roof. The last 3 occasions it was this high- USA and vietnam war peak conflict August 1968 and in the same month Russia invades Czechoslavakia. Yom Kippur war October 1973. On the third occasion in December 1979 Russia invades Afghanistan. Just an observation. Something unexpected may break in all of this.

Exxon, Chevron and Occidental oppose prorationing as they want to wipe out the smaller Texas players. Nearly all the smaller companies want prorationing as a means to help survival and support OPEC plus latest deal. They also fear having nowhere to store oil. One of the three regulators is in favour of prorationing. The other two are undecided but one is more likely to be against. In the end it should not make any difference to Tullow as this mainly affects WTI. Whatever the result there is nowhere for the pump oil to go it will just take 5 weeks longer for some companies to go bust instead. I wonder if it matters at all what decision is made in Texas as OPEC plus know their actions commence in May when the USA has no spare capacity left.

Resistance still at 28.1 and 29.9.
Support at 22.4 and 24.35 that now needs to be regained.

CEO appointment should happen first. I believe the question should be asked over and over again at the AGM if we do not have an appointment by that date which is just 9 days away. Its not as if they have hundreds of people to choose from. If you keep people hanging about they won't except an offer when its given. Somebody has to be the best choice.

Original plan was to sell in August. Probably November because of lock downs and issues with International travel.

They either proration and support the OPEC arrangement as Covid-19 is exceptional or they ignore Tump and wreck all the efforts made over the weekend.

Stability is being created and a strong support line is getting built.

The next nws is fro Texas and Oklahoma courts as they seek to proration production downwards by 20%.

Chart free to move shares up

At 23.4p

https://www.tullowoil.com/about-us/

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-forecast-significant-top-ahead

Geographical segregation of areas where no patients with Covid-19 are going into hospital is probably how the UK gets out of a lockdown. I would expect areas with good natural barriers like isle of Wight, Orkneys and outer Hebrides that had small numbers infected will emerge first with quarantine stations and they could try places like this next week or week after. They may then move into mainland areas where they can defend against re-infection. As the days progress the recovery area expands and is probably guided by local NHS data as well as from testing centres confirming an area as statistically clear. It would take around 9 weeks to free up the whole country, but may be best method in the use of resources and being able to mitigate against later cluster outbreaks of infection if they happen to arise without putting everywhere back into lockdown. It also motivates people to maintain social distancing in order to join up with free movement areas. Other methods could be applied but something like that approach would see a recovery map emerge for all of UK that citizens could measure as real progress. International travel would still have to wait.

may for met in penultimate sentence.

Tuesday is an 8.5 hour trading session. I expect the chart gap to get back filled to around 24.25-24.5 area which it could do on a 25p plus buy and sell 1 solitary share at the lower level at 24.25p at uncross open. It may well then move about to Thursday close in London until USA open and later the court ruling enforcing the stop in production where fields are land locked, the local refiner has no capacity to take more oil or there is no available storage facility, they will be ordered to lock in. Once locked in they are off line for around 4 months in total although the court order may be two months as it would take around 8 weeks to get everything running again. This will take out quite a bit of USA oil as at least 40% of shale will have to stop 15 April. Other non-shale areas with similar issues may get the same court order. On the one hand its good news but then we need to find out what price per barrel for the Brent will be agreed. If it is $42 yippee, if it is $35 okay, if below $30 we can all guess what happens to Tullow. This last point is critical and we met know that answer until later in the week. So there are more up and down moves all around on Tullow SP.

I strongly suspect the opening will be around 25p on Tullow come Tuesday and that it will close the chart gap down to 24.25p. I strongly suspect that elements of this deal will still be getting thrashed out next week and that we all have another chance of taking bets at 30p plus if you are feeling lucky. This scenario has a lot of volatility up and down to play for. I recall a court hearing on 14 April in USA regarding the rationing of production as storage and refinery capacity was limited so by default USA will have a shut in volume created by their own lock down actions hitting local oil demand to date.

Left 88% on. Took 12% off at 26.45. Can always buy it back. Just in case it is a total foul up over Easter and I got something off in the mid 20's.