Member Info for Tornadotony

What it looks like to me.

Double top on futures around 28.8 and double bottom at 27.2 area. Could well retreat back down again. Tullow to stay around 17.x imop.

If Brent goes under $27 and keeps slipping away its short/ slice play.
If Brent goes above $28 and keeps on going up its long.

Nothing to do with Tullow as its all about the Brent price.

16.57-17.01 you can spot gaps on chart by checking historical data versus what happened this morning.

If it fills I got more from the recent rise and if it doesn't I am prepared to take the loss on the slice. It helps support the 16 handle.

A bit more fun this morning. Taken a slice off to buy back if we get a retreat. There is a gap in the chart unfortunately.

Brent likely to be in a higher low in the chart. Tullow likely to recover and close on 23p as Brent moves back up. Need a CEO appointment which would boost share by 4p if the market liked the person holding that role. I am getting fed up with the delay.

9am

Should be on 17.7p by 9pm.

End with humour investor6!

chart based

downbutnotout

Your a scalper and there is nothing wrong with being a trade scalper and most of the time you share where you do and do not have to but openly do so. Your percentage hit rate is high on my personal observations but like anybody with the odd miss. Your strategy is not investor like but probably chat based and trying to make a living. Scalpers are not stealing other people's lunch although it can look that way by those who think you have magical properties of influencing the share price. Its always fun to have a scalper stock in the portfolio mixed with investing stock. It adds to the fun of managing your own investment but it can create a lot of paperwork if not done in an ISA.

Investor6

Your last response tells us everything about you as a person. No humour, full of self importance and think you have earned the right to have some respect in getting a trading decision correct. People on here make dozens of trading decisions everyday and some have the courageous to post the trade after they do it. Its not to influence or brag. They show as a person what you see and build friendships on the board or humility and laugh at themselves when they got it wrong. So think about it and think hard.

Investor6

An awful lot of bad news has been priced in unless its in SP 500, DOW and NASDAQ where the FED buys the shares. We shall see dreadful figures and yet a lot of USA stock hardly moves which tells us the place not to be is in a bubble of any kind. The advantage of being in Tullow is that it got pulverised earlier on a massive scale. The situation here is that a large upside exists and a lot of folks can take a punt without breaking the bank. Not many shares where the turnover is sometimes 8% in day. The last place to be is on a stock with no liquidity and very little trading action. If you like poker and greyhound racing this is a great share to be in. You can also play it in lock down and do not need to find a bookie.
Tony

Moremash

It could have easily gone the other way with someone making a cash bid for Tullow as they needed an off shore oil field acquisition and they wanted a type of oil as in Kenya and Uganda that hardly exists anywhere else and they wanted a low cost producer in the current market. Things can happen. What you can be sure of is a lot of folks will be ready for the next breakout event and will load up with more stock on a cheap price. If you had more shares I bet you would have sold some at 27p but you did not have enough to part with some. The answer is to buy low sell high next time. Always snaffle at least a small profit and then you feel less cheesed off. Do not beat yourself up as everyone wins some and sometimes they don't. You do have the guts to try and do it yourself instead of some poncy fund who loses your money for you.

nhawan,

Saudia Arabia is reversing 1 million barrels a day which was outside of the 5 million cut shared with Russia. The reason why Texas RRC did not make a decision yesterday was that the big companies pointed out all the smaller players were going to the wall and if the price dropped further it would happen very fast. So the hearing verdict got postponed to 21 April. Drilling in Texas in the fracking fields has stopped. Th oil be extracted is frm wells that eventually run dry and not being replaced. Saudi Arabia and Russia could then count upon another 1.5M barrels coming off market and not returning in 2021. They also know that 4 M barrels a day get shut in up to 30 June when storage is filled up.

A point I should make is that Jubilee field is not in land locked Texas. All off shore fields have a huge advantage over land locked fields with no pipeline to a port. Jubilee and Ten can send oil to any refinery in the world and not to one that has no means to sell what it refines.

To be an investor here you have to be strong. The company is worth way more than 16-17p. Just wait for the right price and fill up the tank to whatever level planned. Oil down $3 bucks and this puppy drops 25%. For the same reasons it can go up 40-50% in a few weeks time. The company has trimmed costs to a $35 breakeven for 2020. We should see those prices again by mid- summer and Tullow climbing back to mid 20's again.

Incessant communications that say nothing that was mentioned before over and over again.

I did the maths on demand side being removed over two years and my calculations gave us reaching equilibrium by August 2021 which gives oil at $50-55 again. The deal created a recovery play over the longer term. Texas RRC made no decision yesterday and kicked the can down the road. It looks likely that shale companies are going bust at an accelerated rate. This removes a lot more oil off the market in 2021 and this time its not coming back on.

Tullow has the means to get to Q2 2021 plus the add on time given from asset sales. The recent rise does encourage more buying at the next low that goes in. I certainly would average off more than I did before. All my average down costs were driven from profits gained on other stock positions that I sold out. Next time I will just add and it gives me more options when the oil price moves back up.

The opportunity was yesterday. Those who bailed got it right. The problem they have is to know when to be back in, as others average down.