Member Info for Tornadotony

This may have ben waiting for USA open, I think the SP edges up with OPEC plus cuts in play tomorrow.

Close above 29p is a new ball game here.

181 cases. They need to get a handle on this very fast as it has doubled up in 2 days. Shanta mine remoteness from cities will work for awhile but eventually the pesky virus gets everywhere.

Well done to Austria for being first out on Friday and back to contact trace. The numbers in Iceland, Liechtenstein and Malta are so low could embark on contact trace as well. The following countries will be at e position in 7 days are; Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Luxembourg. Nice to see a country like Cambodia with 97% recovery. A lot of African countries are seeing good recovery rates as well.

For 20 Deramping messages in a row covering the same 3 issues that most people with a brain cell regards as irrelevant to the future price beyond 2-3 days for Tullow Oil.

I know their for there! Before I get corrected.

Austria could go on contact tracing like South Korea and return 80% to normal this week on there data. Switzerland is about a week later and France and Germany could be just two weeks later. I can see a wave of other countries following end of May. The UK is more likely to now do it the Chinese way. 10% out, 25%, 40%. 50%, 60% etc kind of route and build up its contract trace capability. Spain, Italy and Iran will do it the UK route. It has a lot to do with how things are just organised to deal with it.

For personal reasons.

All the oil companies are retreating today and it ha zero to do specifically with Tullow. It will climb back next week as we approach OPEC cuts that now may be extended from 30 June to the rest of the year. The impact of the RNS yesterday was huge. It was mentioned on TV on squawk box as the biggest oil deal this year in one of the evening interviews. It clears the September RBL. The company has a clear pathway to 31 March 2021. All debts due that year are to paid off under the RBL deal.

I have seen a quote of $992M but that was on $70 oil price long term. Baseline cost per barrel was $34. So adjustment to $60 per barrel is $60 on write downs. So $992M becomes $716M. At $716 around $55M is liable in tax so down to $661M. If you take the hedge price of $57 as long term average it will give a figure very close which is $585M.

I have seen a quote of $992M but that was on $70 oil price long term. Baseline cost per barrel was $34. So adjustment to $60 per barrel is $60 on write downs. So $992M becomes $716M. At $716 around $55M is liable in tax so down to $661M. If you take the hedge price of $57 as long term average it will give a figure very close which is $585M.

I have reviewed today's communications and will certainly add more on any future dip in price. I am extremely happy that the Uganda project is no longer associated with the company. I will be more happy when the Kenya asset is sold off. I am very confident the share can move 125% over the coming year to 18 months. Now is the time to buy and hold. The share price is still a basement bargain.

The gap was generated by a material value RNS. On those occasions gaps do not apply. This was true of gaps going down from December's RNS. Hence the nonsense could be applied on the USA close yesterday which helped conceal the news that was coming.

Megla that is a rubbish comment. The RBL was conditional of $1B asset sales the only production assets they have at TEN, Jubilee and 23,000 barrels have other fields are not for sale. Only 2C, 3C assets in East Africa and exploration farm downs are for sale. The company has massively de-risked. On completion of another $425M it has guaranteed its future for years in a terrible market situation.

First of all to sell anything in this market is an achievement. Secondly the value of $560M of 2C resource is the sale price. The best price they could have got would have been say $800M but then a CGT charge of $100M would have been applied. The sale going ahead also provides debt interest savings of $150M over two years. So if they spent another two years haggling it would have lost Tullow money. I therefore feel the company has done the right thing.

The short funds can make trading mistakes as well. Two days ago this was 16p looking like it was heading to 12p. A respected analyst valued Kenya and Uganda sales at $970M earlier in the year and was not far off. (Total bought part of Jubilee for $2.4B). Reducing debt by $1B reduces interest cost per oil barrel produced by $3.

No share value increases as the RB conditions are being met. The company is then sheltered until oil price recovery in 2022. The future debt profile is then remodelled. All the company needs is two years at $60 with $20 profit on say 72,000 barrels a day and that's another billion off in debt.

AGM can move the share price. All my worries yesterday were well disguised. The RNS also mentions farm downs so the intention is to go above $1B raised to reduce debts. As the company reduces debts it becomes an easy takeover target. The share could close at 36p in the near future. It then recovers higher with the oil price.

Essentially it will be around when oil prices recover. This has the greatest value from the sale. Hold for longer term. It also values what they will get from Kenya.

Need to factor this into enterprise value of the company.

Both countries want oil to go up. So as usual it has all risen on hot air.