Member Info for Tornadotony

1. China 99.9%
2. Switzerland 96.8%
3. Austria 95%
4. Germany 92.9%
5. Ireland 92.8%
6. Iran 83.3%
6. Israel 83.3%
8. Spain 80.2%
9. UK 78%
10. Turkey 77.6%
11. Italy 73.2%
12. USA 29.6%
(25 USA States above 50% recovery) Only Iran has not moved up

14 days of positive results. The number did not appear.

The reason being that I have monitored Covid-19 recovery rates in the UK for some weeks. This data comprises days of positive test results plus all Covid-19 patients in NHS hospitals. The UK recovery profile improved from 75.7% to 78% in just one day. I have also monitored test data in 32 London Boroughs and they have fallen by 70% in the past week or so. The R rate is well under 0.38 and the lockdown has worked well. Evidence for relaxing lockdown is strong. Lloyds is a recovery play.

The following chart gaps in share prices have been created on Lloyds SP charts.
1. 32.08-32.24p
2. 41.16- 42.12p
3. 46.66-47p
4. 54.38-55.35p
5. 56.06-56.55p

Another 9 States have moved into an improving recovery status. The largest is Texas which has managed to hit 62%. My cut off is 60% patient outcome on positive test results. The total number of States controlling Covid-19 on par with European countries is 20 amongst those who present data revealing recovered patients. I would predict a stronger move in USA recovery data next week. They are finally getting on top of it and are three weeks behind Europe overall.

One correction on the previous the $500M is probably $64 oil.

Will
The short positions would reduce well before then. USA events and Kenya sale closes out some of the short positions. Bond repayments look most likely and Tullow production looks really stable on a 5 year outlook.

I suspect the hold up is the following reasons;

1. Awaiting Uganda Government approval on sale of asset to Total. Hold value 1p.
2. Awaiting USA to evidence it is getting on top of Covid-19. 11 States have achieved a very successful response but the largest is South Carolina. There is a major issue of different states not reporting data in the same way so no one has a clear idea of progress. There is a serious problem in LA but they have things well under control in San Diego so within States there are issues. Price impact on Tullow and oil is 8p and $5 on Brent.
3. CEO arrival is worth 2p and they probably gave 1p already on his announcement.
4. Sale of Kenya assets would add $125m value to Tullow equity and is worth 7p.
5. Farm down of exploration assets to complete $1B debt repayment target 3p.
6. Oil recovering to $50 and Jubilee field development restarts add 5p.

The above gives 50p and future rises depend on oil discoveries and continued oil price gains. At $60 a barrel the company earns $500m which allows for more drilling and repayment of all debt in 5 years. The company in that scenario is worth 105p.

I am not sure if Barclays is going much higher. May try another entry if it dips. Its the unemployment numbers that are starting to cause me a little concern.

Fresnillo if it goes back under 700 handle it will be an all out buy including selling your kitchen sink for any shares. you can get. The company is in the middle of building a new mine. Funny things happen to miner stocks when constructing a mine. They either get hugely over valued and then sink like the Bismarck or Titanic 3 months after pouring out new precious metals or they get toasted beforehand being totally unloved and skyrocket a few week into new production. Fresnillo is something you have to sit on in your portfolio as a 5% must have imop. As for HOC its a roulette play as the amount of reserves and resources they actually have is uncertain and a lot of assets do not have clear access to water rights.

The market is bipolar. One minute its everything will get back to near normal and the next its the public behaviour has changed eternally and we have a massive depression and economic collapse with unemployment in the stratosphere. Countries like South Kore, China, Australia, Switzerland, Austria and Germany have recovered from Covid 19 by over 90% and climbing. USA on 29%, France on 50% have a way to go. UK was 73.3% yesterday which is just 2% or so behind Japan. I am sure confidence will return when various systems of monitoring the virus in the population go fully into effect.

Got answered as I wrote the question.

I noticed a dividend payment date on 27 May. Does it go ex divi that day or was it taken off off the divi qualifying date in April or did the government cancel bank divis entirely which is what I thought they did?

Gold and silver are holding up and I am not sure if we have any more downside for today.

Will buy back when at least one of the gaps filled. If we see sub 700p again l be all in instead of titrating in the buys.

Kept in consolidation. Eventually it will move up.

If BP holds its current gains at 321-322p, Tullow should close above 26p if it repeats what it has done in the last 5 daily sessions.

The forward PE is 6.65 times earnings if quarter 4 Brent average spot price is $37 barrel. Tullow is undervalued and is not the only share beaten up this way. Folks either believe all the negatives and stay in their cash positions or they are optimistic and see the green shoots and have a belief things are going to get better. For the brave there are profits to be made.

Lowest and highest buy of the day so far but have a below 29p handle. I am seeing a third of shops opening up in my area. All restricting 3 people max at once. Estate agents also running with two or three people. Economic life is beginning to recover. I doubt if Lloyds will be below 33p by end of June and could be upper 30's end of July. Does need avoidance of a second outbreak but worth a punt.

Will probably average it off on a dip. Long term hold.