Member Info for Tornadotony

Twino

Lets say the shorters borrowed stock say at 34p and enjoyed watching it go to 8p and if they closed their short the difference is there profit in the same way as somebody buying at 8p and selling at 34p. Just imagine if the short taken out at 34p does the opposite. The shorter is seeing a loss as the price goes up. So at 41p and facing the prospect of it going to 51p those large short positions are massing up losses. Just imagine at the same time there is whiff of a possibility of a Tullow takeover at a higher price. It is likely that those shorts will want to close and when they do it counts as buy and drives the sock price up further. As more shorts close its sets off a squeeze on other shorters as they buy more and more stock to get out of a losing trade. It the same as buyers who are long trying to sell their stock when the price is falling off a cliff and is overwhelmed by sellers in the reverse scenario.

Jim we only see short positions 3 days later so that was short positions back at 25-26p.

Brent is stabilising and I suspect by just remaining flat the stochastics and RSI could be ready for a higher move up at the back end of this week. In the meantime we have day traders, short position players and new buyers all adding to the mix. It is very easy to be whipped saw out of position whatever is intended. I have a strong cash position for Fresnillo, Shanta and Tullow if they retreat but holding defendable positions in all of them if they got ugly. The logic behind all three is very different but I see 40-60% rise in all of them.

At the moment punished for it. Certainly could not see a 6-7% drop after a strong finish yesterday. Staying patient for longer term. Again PMO gone to the races and they played Tullow differently.

https://www.bourse.lu/security/US899415AE32/266318

Given time it suggests Tullow heading towards 60p.

Can always buy more if it back fil the chart lower down.

Newbie at $60 a barrel, Tullow will want to reactivate a lot of emergency cuts made to get breakeven down from $45 to $35. So $15 barrel profit on 75,000 a day and remove tax we may see $750k net per day. $270M over 12 months as forward look. $400M profit was 140p which gives 94p share price at $270M. However net change in value lost from Uganda sale of say $300M takes it down 18p to 76p. Kenya sale at a better price than it would have got 2 months ago is an unknown. When the company gave FCF as $200M we had a 63p share price so 76p at $270M is perhaps not an unrealistic expectation.

Took 21% off at 39.6p for a small loss. Will buy it back if Tullow retreats. I was seriously overloaded on stock and have to lighten up a bit as a de-risk.

Getting past history correct it was 141p back in early December before the changes to annual production were announced. It fell to 38p which was considered overdone. The price stabilise at 62-64p area. Oil price falling to $50 took the stock to around 42p. Since then a lot of cost saving measures were implemented. $500M income to pay off debts is to be delivered which takes $1.50 off the cost of every barrel produced. Ntomme well also comes on line this month. $35M in decommissioning wells is not being spent. The company if not using hedge is generating $7 profit per barrel which is $500,000 per day. So before they were expecting to make a loss but now is around $60M profit and rising. 60p share price was based on $200M profit or $120M net after tax. So $49 Brent should equate to upper 50's. At some point the company needs to spend money to continue with Jubilee developments.

There is a risk of gold futures dropping back to $1646 next week. Support lines for Fresnillo are at 699p, 681p and the last stonewall massive support line is 573p. We could get a breach of 681p at $1646 and it comes back to the support line as an intra-day move. The gap in the charts would certainly get filled. I do have some Fresnillo shares from my initial buy in and yes I will be adding as it descends below the gap. Whether its all in one go or say two or 3 chunks I will decide at the time. As gold and precious metal miners were falling, oil and oil company stocks has done the exact opposite.

To Mikefreedom

Gold futures closed below $1691 and the next critical support line on is $1646. Centamin support lines are at 3 levels which are 142p, 136p with a major support line at 128p. The resistance line is 155p from which it descended. As of late for $26 move on gold = 11p move on Centamin approximately. The fall in Centamin will be less as gold falls back further. I would equate 136p support with $1646 gold futures. I hold no position on Centamin and await relaxation on Covid laws within Egypt when the pandemic ends. Regards Tony

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Not yet.

They must be getting out of short positions.

695 to 704 Gap last one to close.

What a day.

gap to 737 now closed.

Must have been 2 days ago as the lowest yesterday was the uncross at 25.51

The Brent weekly chart appears to have hit a down channel resistance line. I believe it needs to retreat a little and acquire stronger momentum before it breaks through. A move for next week perhaps. Tullow has used up a lot of firepower around 26.2p and has got nowhere. It may also retreat before we finally see a breakthrough. A gap was created between 24.5-24.9 area earlier in the week.

We have two gaps but most of the 737-746 gap is closed. The other gap is down 695p. Today is a bet on naff Non Farm Pay roll data State side. If the riots have delivered truly poor data this could bounce all the way back to 800p.

I do not fancy betting on good news on Non Farm Pay roll USA data. I suspect the market is not looking forward to it either. It may surprise but with all the riots I can not see it being brilliant.