RE: Oxford vaccine worked in monkeys an mice.15 May 2020 22:03
Toothache,
I have done a lot of research into this and I alerted my local MP that the death rate was likely to be 0.35% of all infected patients and that I expected the event to be around 3.5 times that of an influenza breakout providing similar measure were pursued as in China. A typical winter influenza breakout usually results in 9,000 UK deaths despite influenza vaccines as the efficacy in some years can be as low as 25%. The current death toll is more or less what I predicted. The point you have made will be clear when excess deaths in nursing homes are examined. A high proportion of those who died had less than 12 months to live as the average life expectancy overall is about that time but this has a very wide variation of course. Younger dementia patients would be expected to live a lot longer but those who lived independently to a very old age usually are under a year or so as the last place they wanted to be was in such a facility. So doctors will have a fairly good idea on whether months or years of life were being lost by Covid-19 or not. We shall soon be in a situation where covid-19 deaths are well under 100 a day, yet those dying because of not being attended by the NHS for other illness will be dying in larger numbers. Hence the need to get out of lockdown and back to normal services as best we can is vital. The loss from other causes would be low at the start of lockdown but its now growing larger every day. I suspect that crossover is the end of May. Overall I would say the UK death figures are not far from the truth on Covid-19. What is important is the impact of economic depression on young people and all the life years that might be lost if we do not get the coming moves over the next few weeks right. Having looked at data in London tonight I was encouraged it was still good, but some outer counties have seen more positive test results and possibly a disturbed R value. I need to see more data, but I am sure many more experts are working hard to guide the process. What is important is for politicians to really listen to evidence and act appropriately upon it. Overall I believe we are winning and doing so in a lot of countries. We may see set backs, but resilience in managing through it is key.
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