Member Info for Tornadotony

Yellowman On filter. Deramping on debt after it was all explained in plain English.

2nd tranche at 675p.

The value of 2.3B silver ounces resources 48M reserves and 38M gold ounces resources and 8.3M reserves after all net debt gives a minimum takeover value of 735p based on gold and silver in the ground only. Its necessary to ignore the PE rate on this share as the company is growing, but mainly as it has a very high takeover value because of the huge amount of assets it actually owns for future development.

Started to build a new Fresnillo position. Longer term play 10% in. So can average down but have something to sell if FRES go near 800p.

adamwenn100

Seriously, if your budget is around £2,000 just buy National grid shares after the annual dividend and get in mid summer late June/ early July when there is little electricity use. Avoid AIM and FTSE 250. Do not trade them just buy and hold and avoid dealing cost. Your budget is to low to get out of trouble its one of the safest plays if that is all the resource you have to risk.

In the end enough holders dumped to prevent a breakthrough. The gap to 24.9p perhaps a clue this was going to be a futile rally as I speculated at the start of the day. I was hoping to be wrong, but the gap over today and tomorrow is likely to be back filled. Next time we may hold 27p or do a lot better but unlikely to be today.

Houston we have ignition sequence all go. All systems are go for the long ride up. No short circuits to report.

I am not sure what the order book on Tullow looks like but my bet its full of buy orders. If Brent goes higher and breaks $30 a barrel the potential FOMO comes in like the ocean tide. Shorters perspiring with leverage margin calls then awaits as this puppy moves up 10p maybe 20p if Goldman Sachs also piles in. So we can all imagine a direction it could go. 50% cance of us being right some of the time.

Toothache stop reminding us that the dentists are shut.

Equates to 26.7p so hence why we might be parked here to the afternoon.

Just in case it spikes down to close gap. If it happens the rally is for real if we get a really sharp v shape move within 60 seconds. I hold a shed load of Tullow already and I want the rally to break 29p and go much higher.

24.8- 29.91 previous close.

I am hoping they avoid a gap with one share 24.8 sell. Otherwise its a waste of time rally with another pullback.

The energy sector as a whole is already bombed out. A number of oil shares are meandering near a bottom and just bouncing around a bit. If any uncertainty exists in the general market then its inflated value stocks with next to nothing income that get hit next. The area to lead an economic recovery is likely to be the energy sector. If the world does not use energy it stays in depression. So if you see no future and feel depressed that is an investment outlook you then have. If you believe things will improve and the human spirit, talent and hard work will get us out of trouble then you invest.

Yellowman

Its like saying that everyone with a mortgage will have the bank seize their home if they missed one payment. The purpose of selling some assets was to reduce the equivalent of percentage of your main asset which for Tullow is Jubilee and TEN. So if that home owner sold one of two cars and said accept the cash from that sale to meet 18 months repayments the bank would have no reason to seize the house.

Those assets have a value to Tullow of $3.6B. Total paid $2.4B for Apache share of Jubilee if memory serves me correct earlier this year. So $2.8B debt $200M decommission debt and $1B leasing and other debts. = $4B.

$575M assets being realised and farm down of certain exploitation blocks and Kenya assets = $1B
$250M non Ghana production asset remains. $3600M Ghana and TEN. $850M + $65M spent on decommissioning this year plus any cash they have remaining end of year.(zero but covers any oil sold below breakeven Sept-Dec 2020). So the company is worth more than its debt by $915M. So its like having a house with a 68% mortgage. The RBL exercise agreed to clear any debt payments due in 2021 as deal of accepting cash from assets sold in reducing overall debt.

Also where can banks get 7% interest debt repayment so they want Tullow to succeed.

I suspect we have strong support above 20p and the short position looks a bit crowded. If we get some buying pressure this could move the SP up next week. If Tullow was 33p, I could understand a higher short position than what exists now.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/04/09/does-donald-trump-have-dementia-we-need-know-psychologist-column/3404007002/

PE ratio is pointless. The company hedges are likely to ensure the company is breakeven in 2020. At $45 a barrel between September and December 2020 it would earn $260M profit. So the big issue is what will be the price of oil by Q4 2020. The company trades below the sum of all its assets after decommissioning, debt and all leasing costs by quite some margin. Tullow is fairly safe to own below 50p.

Should invite some volume. Could go back up again. Similar action to yesterday but 1p lower.

I am looking to see where the bottom will be on Shanta. I believe it will overreact on the retreat down and give a good buying opportunity.

Brent retesting 24.9 and lets see if it bounces again 3rd time. T
The real downturn is in precious metals. Gradually millions of people are selling gold as they run out of cash. As for oil and oil company shares, they are already crushed. The place to earn big on shorts will be the precious metal miners. I am not sure why some outfits bother with oil companies when the are 60-90% off their highs. If oil does not recover then nothing recovers and that suggests lockdown lifestyles for two plus years. I can see huge mental health problems in society if that arose.

On the one hand he claimed it would be left to market forces for USA companies to resolve oil production, but now he wants to subsidise the frackers with interest free virtually loans. These loans to go to companies that would go broke without Covid-19. Hopefully someone with a live brain cell can block loan access.