Member Info for Tornadotony

Media source running around screaming second wave of Covid-19. Sars 1 back in 2003 did not deliver a second wave. secondly testing and contract trace systems are being developed at a strong pace. Thirdly to advocate such a view causes far more deaths not from Covid-19. Equity is being depressed through a false generation of fear. The evidence across Europe is a falling viral transmission rate. A cautious and aware public on the whole trying to keep it low. The USA has also moved up from around 25% recovery to near 30% in just two days.

I like charts with no gaps and seeing those created always being back filled within days.

For writing total garbage.

Tranche 3 on book at 666p. Miners ignoring current metals rally. I am not sure of the direction at all, but staying with titrating in on any pull backs.
I believe many strong economies are coming out of lockdown in June. The key will be contract trace systems and keeping any burst outbreak under control. Continuous testing in the population is the future radar station.

A fact to bear in mind is that China is a quarter of global GDP and is up and running again for the most part. The USA is 44% of Global GDP and the pain felt at the moment is that USA has only just got through a plateau phase. I know UK is 2% of global GDP and other European countries collectively bring the total up further and with time will add to the China total. South Korea and soon Japan add more onto the GDP total. This helps countries like Thailand and Egypt as they at least have a recovery market to sell to despite having on-going issues.

South Korea is under the top 34 countries in cases because they manage via track and trace and it works and demonstrate a success story. Okay some sectors get a bit of interruption but that is not a second wave, its a minor stop and go in some areas only.

Suddenly the bar has got lowered and everything is impossible to do.

The fact is the transmission rate is dropping fast. Lockdowns wipe out nearly 85% of infection. Once lowered the numbers track and trace is possible. The public are more aware now than at the start. Face coverings have a value than none at all. The two metre distance was needed early on as people with symptoms would cough and sneeze in closed environments. Those showing no symptoms could be one metre away especially with a face covering. Once recovery levels in the table below pass 90% the numbers infected in the community are extremely small. The only thing to avoid is large social gatherings. If we get cheap on the spot tests that work accurately things do open up quite fast in many settings.

This is amongst the top 34 countries with highest cases. USA entered because of its importance.

1. China 99.87%
2. Switzerland 94.4%
3. Austria 92.5%
4. Germany 89.5%
5. Iran 85.9%
6. Ireland 80%
7. Spain77%
8. Israel 75%
9. Turkey 72.7%
10. UK 65.4%
11. Italy 63.2%
12. USA 25.6% (North America is 10 days or so behind Europe, I would expect USA to be half way in two weeks.)

HL working on my side but had this temporary problem before. Email them or a quick ring. You should get live prices back again this morning and they will put an order through for you. Current buy around 26.28.

Going in a confident direction.

I answered this issue yesterday in part. However the citizen takes the issue to this organisation attached. https://ulii.org/ug/judgment/tax-appeals-tribunal-uganda/2010/3 I am sure the case against Tullow has no foundation and can be proven by audit trails. The company has regularly published and been transparent.

The article has an error in that the tax dispute back in 2014 concerned only one block that had an exemption of CGT clause in the event of farm down. The Uganda minister who signed the contract on that block was disputed in having the authority to give that clause in the contract and so that mistake was not the fault of Tullow. It was certainly not a corruption issue. The tax authorities did meet up with Tullow and this corresponds to a time when an MOU was agreed to get the Uganda oil developed and for Tullow to accelerate its Uganda investment further and pay the government more for licences. Any differences between $407M that Tullow offered and what was eventually paid was not that far off from the amount disputed. It was a case of getting things right in case of something like what has happened with the remaining sale to Total. What the accuser is seeking is clearer evidence that the Uganda tax authorities did their job correctly. I am fairly sure audit trails would show the CGT allowances for the recent sale is correct. The article of course ignores all Tullow expenditure from July 2014.The company identified in the failed farm down last year that its tax exemption was around $575M hence why no additional tax is due.

In the USA Tullow closed 50% up. I do appreciate its an odd ADR share market and may not rise that much on Monday, but any sniff of weakness and I will just keeping adding. I believe we could see 50p when the new CEO arrives in July and Brent is nearing $40 or at least $35 or at the very least we get there by Q4.

Can I just add that individuals who irritate and pollute the board with garbage are best managed with the filters which is the tag next to premium chat. It is a powerful tool on busy days when all the green filter messages do not drown you with BS and give you a chance to read something useful by those either being helpful or find interesting data.

The farm down on the block from 60% to 30% might attract a useful valuation. Guyana would probably want half as a capital gains tax, but it would easily generate a good sum towards the $1B total. This helps preserve all the existing production assets and supports my view that the share price value should be near 50p once oil price hits $45 a barrel. Keep buying any dips. It looks like Goldman Sachs are holding 9 million shares for themselves as being the voting stock.

Thanks Kernowlad,

I will stay with my titrated buying in as I have no idea how May or June will play out but I like silver and silver miners in H2. Fresnillo is FTSE 100 and its a share that has delivered in the past for me.

Kernowlad I have not come anything that ALMO has said specifically about the mining sector so grateful for any links. I would not invest in the oil and gas sector for sure in Mexico. Just about everything Fresnillo does for communities is what ALMO wants companies to do. I thought Fresnillo was way ahead of everybody on else on that score. Please correct me if I am getting the situation n Mexico wrong.

Not deramping, the issue is not so much with Centamin. It is Egyptian Government. This is the last message from me on the site until Sisi goes.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/05/07/egypt-covid-19-cover-new-repressive-powers

The Centamin mine can be seized whenever they want to do so.

An extremely important support line to hold. First support gave way earlier today. If it bounces off its bullish, but if it doesn't the bears are back in town.

Yellowman On filter. Deramping on debt after it was all explained in plain English.