Member Info for Tornadotony

Another mistake as we hit 797p. Whipped saw out just what I did not want to do.

Rationale 5 Hourly stochastics on 100% its approaching shorter term overbought. I suspect large gaps in USA market in the sector as a whole will need back filling this afternoon. Gold miners tanked State side yesterday.

Sold off at 787 with profits from 685. If it dips back will buy it back.

We finally have a gap, a very small one to 36.14p sell to 35.50 buy in the charts although the uncross price was higher than the last sell yesterday. Technically might be ignored, but I doubt it. This is a buying opportunity although my 34.14 entry after all buying costs was not a good one today. The link with USD was broken when Brent broke $40.2.

Since I last wrote on the subject. USA recovery overall has improved to over 44% up 16% (UK now 90%). Montana and Hawaii are above 90%. We have 22 States between 65-90% recovery matching most European data and that includes Texas that may need to tighten controls again. 11 States are between 40-65% with the most impressive gain being Illinois at 58%. The state with the greatest difficulty with just 4.2% recovery status is Arizona where citizens ignore social distancing and this has nothing to do with lockdown policies. Georgia at 6% was awful before lock downs eased but has stayed the same. Maryland 12%, Colorado 14%, R1 14% Virginia 16% and DC 8.2% are real laggards. A number of big states range between 24-30% that weigh down the rest of the USA. Los Angeles remains a major problem where as San Fran and San Diego are on top of it. The USA overall is 5-6 weeks behind UK although 7 States are near or have surpassed us.

Garbage in and Garbage out.

Gold being held for USA open this afternoon.

Oil for many years has operated as an inverse to USA dollar strength. The dollar has dropped in value considerably in the past month and again yesterday. The FED last night talked don the value of the dollar. Therefore regardless of supply and demand issues at present the oi price goes up if USD goes down. This creates some inflation in the USA which the FED are desperate to avoid going into negative rates. So I have just added.

After yesterday, The Democrats may be rubbing their hands. If they get in oil goes to $100 a barrel easy.

https://www.bourse.lu/security/US899415AE32/266318
Bond up over 6% today. Somebody spotting what a great bargain it is.

A word of caution in that Gold has again formed a higher low if it pulls back from here which then looks like a triple top as well. The rise tonight was caused by dollar value sinking and gold behaving like a currency. It could take off tomorrow or pullback it is a coin toss. We will have a better idea before the London market opens tomorrow for a gold breakout or a retreat.

I added 25,000 at 11.03 near the close so my average is now just below 12. I will be a heavy buyer on a SP retreat. A few days ago I expected gold to fall back and so far it has not obliged. Remaining patient as I captured profits between 7-9p on Shanta last year.

Nothing vulgar about £29,000 gain in just 12 days.

I suspect it will be 17-18p trading range by Q4 of 2021.

So far we have only seen a higher low put in on gold and it remain a higher low to 1750. The miners are all tucking under a resistance lines in their respective equity share prices. It appears set up for the FED meeting to decide how gold now plays out. I have 10% of my portfolio invested in precious metal stocks. Still awaiting a decent dip to make it 60%.

To MaverickD

There is no gap in the charts between 32-33p at all. The only gap was 30.39 to 31p which is 0.61p and is under 2%. Tullow only respects gaps in value above 2% in its charts where a breakaway move has occurred. This happened around 7-8p it arose around 12p area when it broke out and the same happened on 30.39p. The same also arose around 24p-25p area when it jumped to 29p a day later. Tullow respects gaps that are over 2% to back fill that are not generated by an RNS notice. The above is fact so do the research.

I believe the blocks will sell for around $400M if the whole lot goes. They may need to throw in some plant and trucks that are on the property. The rest of the $1B met by FCF. The company will then be a lot leaner and highly focussed. Any Guyana block farm down would be spent on drilling. We then have the excitement of finding something and adding new resources. It would be this phase that is more likely to get the company back over £1 a share again.

Bareneccessities

For Tullow there is a long history of ignoring any gaps of 0.65p or less. The charts have them frequently and they often do not back fill. Secondly any gap caused by an eventful RNS as last November and December has to be ignored. When these two factors are taken into account we have no gaps in the Tullow charts. To check gaps http://uk.investing.com search for tullow and then pull down the history tab and use the calendar to have all historical prices on tullow and you can check for gaps. I have saved you the time but you have source to double check.

Olly

Say oil does go back to $100 a barrel as the USA government has increased its annual expenditure by around 50% while Trump has been in office give or take $1 trillion. The UK government is likely to devalue with them especially if no deal with EU in a few months time so no issue of Tullow denominated in another useless FIAT. Lets say Ghana and Tullow manage to keep increased costs to $10 a barrel because of this. Lets say net profit per barrel is $45 and $30 after taxes. So 70,000 barrels a day is $2.1M profit net and on the year the company earns $766M or lets say 50 cents a share or 40p a share UK money. At 5PE it would be £2.00 a share. So it is possible for Tullow to be £2 a share because that £2 is not worth much. You can imagine the UK and USA inflation rate at $100 barrel for oil. Will it happen or not is a wait and see.

After the huge rise yesterday we have an inverted dead cat bounce. I have tried thinking another name for it like air turbulence drop.