Member Info for Tornadotony

Not the fracking one's of course.

Uncle Sam may hopefully become Uncle Joe come November and ends USA fracking. Oil prices going up on the Biden poll news. If Trump and republican governors keep messing up buy oil stocks.

how should be home.

Biden is leading Trump by 8%.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2020/03/16/icymi-joe-biden-promised-to-destroy-the-oil-industry-last-night-n2565015

If Biden can hold the lead and keep adding to it, then buy Tullow until the cows come how. Oil would be above $100 again and the green agenda becomes very cost effective.

Tullow bonds moving up. As tomorrow is our last day without the new CEO, I believe several days of gains could be on the cards.

730-750p reload range for me. One bad week is all I ask.

Fortunately I titrate positions in but the severity of this drop has surprised me. It was intended to be for long term. The idea this share won't see £15 again assumes covid-19 has no end when it does. All pandemics eventually end.

Holding my lot. This will go to 21-22p eventually. If it shows 9 or 10p ever again I will probably pony up with 500,000 buy. No fear of pull back as it would be a gift.

Seduced into banking some profits. Still have some to run with if it goes higher.

The following States have dropped in recovery a cohort of 3 States are presented first as 50-100 cases was enough for their positions to change quite dramatically. I should comment that countries have often dropped 3% or so because of an outbreak incident and have gone onto recover. Note Oklahoma, Nevada (Vegas) and Texas.

Montana 79% down from 90%
Hawaii 84.3% down from 93.2%
Alaska 66% down from 68%

Oklahoma 74.9% down from 87.2%
Alabama 54.2% down from 64.8%
Oregon 39.4% down from 49.8%
Texas 58.3% down from 66.8%
Idaho 81.1% down from 89.2%
Nevada 71.7% down from 78.6%
Wyoming 77.6% down from 83.9%
Utah 55.8% down from 60%
South Carolina 49.8% down from 54%
Kentucky 28.5% down from 32.5%
Vermont 84.5% down from 87.5%
Missouri 26.1% down from 29.2%
Arkansas 68.7% down from 70.2%
District of Columbia 17% down from 18.2%
Florida 22.6% down from 23.4%
Louisiana 83% down from 83.7%

Those that improved first.

USA recovery data by State
Recently improved. Reference UK is on 92.5% recovery rate
Illinois 81% up from 58.6%
Iowa 81.3% up from 63.5%
Arizona 15.6% up from 4.2%
Nebraska 68.3% up from 57%
Kansas 63.8% up from 54.3%
Wisconsin 81.3% up from 72.5%
New Hampshire 83.6% up from 75%
Michigan 81.2% up from 73.6%
Colorado 21.8% up from 14%
Pennsylvania 81.3% up from 75%
Georgia 12.3% up from 6%
North Dakota 93% up from 86.9%
North Carolina 70% up from 64.2%
Indiana 81% up from 76%
South Dakota 87.8% up from 82.8%
New Jersey 29.6% up from 24.8%
New Mexico 49.4% up from 45.5%
Washington 36.2% up from 32.3%
Connecticut 29.4% up from 26.4%
Ohio 28.5% up from 25.6%
Maine 83.2% up from 80.4%
Mississippi 79.6% up from 77%
Minnesota 92% up from 89.8%
Massachusetts 89.9% from 88.1%
Delaware 65% up from 63.2%
West Virginia 73.5% up from 72.6%
Rhode Island 14.9% up from 14%

No Change is within 0.2% of last figure; Maryland, California, New York, Virginia and Tennessee.

Do you want to see the data? tick recommend and I will put on after 5 or so. I compare them to a couple of weeks ago or so.

First of all the oil and gasoline demand within India is sharply increasing despite strategic reserve refills as it was sharply lower weeks ago. Secondly China demand plummeted in Q1 and recovered to 90% over Q1 shortfall in Q2. Chinese use of cars is going up sharply although like everywhere else jet fuel is down. Overall the rate of growth over Q2 to Q3 is far less and may just be 2% or so but it is still vastly higher than Q1. China also has a lot of small tea pot refiners and they do buy in bulk at different times of the year. Once again an over simplistic picture is given to a wider consumption assessment for oil demand in an article put on by AlfaMale for us to reference and I appreciate it is added for us to read and analyse.

The problem in California is LA which has not been tackled properly from the start. Arizona never had a plateau of cases at all. Texas has an issue and they are working on it. Florida has opened up and ignored really basic measures. The republican governor is now being ignored and local government are now taking action. This is all part of the first wave that has either been mishandled, was never under control at the start or is having issues with air conditioned environments. All the situations can be recovered and taken back on track, but it shows the rest of USA and other countries how not to do things.

If gold is rising its for other reasons and not Covid-19. A lot of poor journalism being pumped on Covid-19 of late which is doing very much as expected. Over half the countries in the world have either recovered or approaching first wave recovery. Some parts of the globe are having a first wave and some are on a plateau that has to fall. USA data is improving again.

Garbage being pumped out on Covid 19 to drop Brent price. Facts give different evidence.

I have gone through the data of 213 countries and its garbage being pumped out about Covid 19. Around 127 countries are recovered or rap approaching that point. The few African countries, Centa and Latin America, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh are all late to the first wave and managing through it. Despite USA set backs where the recovery was 47% dropped to 44% and then has managed back to 50% is not the reason to drop Brent price.

Reason bored of the repetition

First time I have bought into Shell. As Brent recovers hopefully Shell SP will do better.

The key issue to bear in mind is that gold has to be at a high price for sometime as companies report quarterly earnings. So miners can be a laggard or move in advance depending on the impact of what they may earn. This can also be influenced by the host country currency as in Russia if it suddenly appreciates as miner costs for AISC go higher and their shares can drop. Some miners have to pay higher taxes if gold goes very high depending what they agreed in the host country for the mine. It is therefore very complicated to explain and not all mining shares behave in the same way. Another big factor is H1 and H2 annual production may not be split 50/50 some are weighted one way and some weighted in another direction.