Member Info for Tornadotony

https://www.stabroeknews.com/2020/07/10/business/suriname-closes-oil-drilling-deal-for-later-this-year/

https://trendsnafrica.com/2020/07/09/kenyas-efforts-to-seek-debt-relief-from-china-hits-road-block/

If CNOCC wants the Tullow and Total blocks the Kenya Government is certainly over a barrel.

The development of the mine will fully examine all the energy and water requirements and adequate pumping/remedial measures would in place to prevent/reduce the risk of flooding at peak rainfall months.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/450152/global-reo-neodymium-oxide-price-forecast/

Significant recovery in Northeast USA being maintained especially New York and New Jersey. (14% of USA economy).
Midwest remaining static with some large states losing 2% recovery status which happens in a lot of countries upon passing into plus 80% recoveries. Kansa and Nebraska now improving. California, Florida, Arizona Georgia and Texas all remained on a plateau of where they were 24 hours before. If they can steady the ship over the weekend the surge may be abating. West Virginia and Tenneessee is slowing down the surge in their states. Colorado Wyoming and Arkansas showing strong recoveries. A problem still exists in Idaho and Oregon. There is a chance USA in its troubled areas is starting to bend a curve.

Breq

They have two figures. The cost of the mine which is your figure than a higher figure for processing locally. As for transmission they have two sources where one has some capacity. However, in Africa a lot of mines manage their power off grid. I am asking some logistic questions. They are aware of the risks of any mine flooding so I would expect plans on how they manage to pump water out after heavy October/November rainfall.

I have priced their gold asset in Tanzania at $7.5M and they may get more in this current gold market.

Same price as it was $27 Brent. Seriously oversold and now back in 12-23 March dip. This is crazy. It makes no sense at all. The USA northeast is on a strong recovery, Midwest is stable. There are problems elsewhere and USA will need to get on top of it by next week.

735,000 tonnes NdPR with a commercial revenue value of $41,000 per metric tonne. 35% of resource conversion rate is say 240,000 x $41,000 = $9.84B revenue over 5 years. We do not know the cost of production. The cost of mine is $270M and may be more as they can not fully rely on local grid transmission for all their needs. Mine life on a 35% conversion rate is 5 years. If the next resource report delivers actual reserves and a higher resource quantity the mine life could be over 10 years. That report is due by 30 September. If anyone has a source of costings on production from another country outside China, I would be grateful for a link.

Are we really going back to $33 a barrel for Brent! If we do then the price of oil next year will go through the roof. I will be interested to see how OPEC respond. Will production cuts remain in play after this month.

Now that I have a position I have requested details on access to water supplies, energy supplies, damage to pit designs by November rainy season and the like. I am happy to share the response here when I get it.

I am pleased that a new Angola Government is actively dealing with corruption and its interesting that Angola may wish to join the Commonwealth as expressed in discussions with Boris Johnson last summer.

Slift

Pensana will have an updated mineral resource by 30 September. Of course it is a punt and hence I limited my risk to around £2,000 with 10,000 shares. The prospectus does give many substantial risks, but outside China this could be the 2nd largest source for the three rare earths they are mining for. Since April I have banked £4,000 on Fresnillo and £1,200 on Shanta. Its not the end of the world if I lost all my stake on the new company. However, I have a hunch that this is the type of project that will find money to support the project later on. I have avoided the Hoschild's (HOC) Chile rare earth project as it is in the middle of nowhere and the products in Angola have a route to market via a nearby port. Chile also has an immense shortage of water that prevents many mining projects from getting off the ground and that is why HOC may not be able to get anywhere with that asset. Finally I sometimes take a small punt to motivate deep research on every aspect of the project which you are doing on Tullow and kindly share with us. Regards Tony

This will be an interesting buy when it hits 550p. The drop today is just the start. I am not so sure Ofgem are bluffing. Reminds me of Centrica.

29th when we hear the CEO message. I hope the company can get involved in some non-oil projects. I bought a small amount of Pensana where the project is based in Angola this morning. If Tullow can widen its energy remit it would be a more futuristic company to invest in if it had partnerships with the likes of Pensana. It would also attract green budget monies.

10,000 to hold. Interesting story and will see how this all unfolds. Can average down or buy more on rights issues.

I am watching at the moment but with Brent at $43, I would expect the share to be near 315p. Not sure why Shell and BP are getting kicked further down.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-pipelines/end-of-an-era-series-of-u-s-setbacks-bodes-ill-for-big-oil-gas-pipeline-projects-idUKKBN2491MK

Do not want pipeline projects across land.

Emeraldcarrots

The API yesterday was 2M barrels added hence why oil stocks slipped back. They expect EIA data to be similar. However, this is USA data and not global. The lower API data tells us that the USA public is listening more on virus prevention measures. The benefits of that behaviour do not materialise for another 10-14 days. So the rise in storage under EIA and API is actually a buying opportunity when normally this would be a negative.

Remains in a strong recovery on Covid-19. This includes New York, New Jersey, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Maine with Massachusetts and Pennsylvania quite stable with high recovery rates. Delaware and Rhode Island have minor setbacks and this has a lot to do with open beach crowds. This part of USA accounts for 14% of all activity and is running at European level recovery rates. Midwest has by and large stalled with small set backs. this part of the USA can improve and catch up with Northeast. Parts of the west and especially the south have issues but the public is starting to respond.

So in response by USA public of reducing the spread of the virus, the API goes higher as public compliance to reduce infection increases. The covid-19 impact has a two weeks lead time for any benefit to emerge. So we have a short term negative on the API number but are then more likely to get a positive result later on. Hence today is a possible buying opportunity with more data to confirm what the API told us yesterday.

Has a bottom between 180-190p. It could then bounce and settle to around 220p. The 6th of July RNS does set out some elements of the strategy I wrote about before. It needs a follow up RNS to stabilise the share price giving a time frame of actions to be completed and new measures being taken.