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Of course it has to be peer reviewed. This however is a phase 1 trial and 90% of them fail. I am sure they will go through the methodology and protocols and say more about the 9 centres. They will examine the gender as well the age cohorts and will want to know underlying conditions in both groups. A lot of these questions can be answered at lunch time. Big pharma will be interested in getting this to phase 2 trial and doing it State side where they have lots of patients in hospital. This is what we want to stop happen before a second wave in the winter.

This makes Covid-19 the same as normal influenza outbreak. I am sure a GlaxoSmithKline will buy them out or want to jointly fund a stage two trial to have a stake. What we need to know this afternoon was steroids being taken by both groups and that no other medicine to that was different was given to the placebo group. The share really move up this afternoon.

Synairgen results may stoke up oil stocks this afternoon. I bought a tiny amount of that stock just to follow what happens.

Had a number of other RNS news that was dealing with but came across this one. I expect to average down on the high buy price so only got a 1000. I want to keep an eye on this as it will elevate oil company and other stocks substantially if it continues to be successful. It was what I call a radar buy. A stage 2 successful trial puts zero on the share price.

Will buy more on the dip.

Ignore the first one
In the 3 April RNS it states hedging income in March was $30M and that averaged realised oil price sold in January and February was $62 bbl. If the production was as expected at 75,000 barrels a day which gives 2.325M barrels of produced in March and if 60% was hedged which is 1.395M barrels would give a hedge profit of $21.50. The average futures price on Brent in March was $33.73 and if $21.50 is added = $55.23 and taken some off the hedge to cover the financing cost for that instrument shows that the hedge does work on a monthly basis. The volumes in the hedge used in January and February allow an upper collar to realise the $62b price. 930M barrels were supplied unhedged and lets say it is $3 loss and the net gain from hedging is $27M profit in March.

The average Brent futures price from 1 April to 31 May was $29.52 and for June it was $40.77. So on the basis of how it worked in March. In April and May 4.575M barrels of oil of which 2.745M was hedged and the gain is around $21 on $35 breakeven. The loss on 1.83M barrels of $7 is $12.8M So the FCF gain in April and May is around $48M. For June 2.25M barrels produced with 60 hedged at 1.35M giving $29M FCF and $5 on 0.9M barrels is $4.5M gain. So from 1 March until 30 June the company generated $108.5 FCF. In January and February the company had different cost data and the breakeven was higher. I therefore stand corrected in my earlier comment in that I now believe it is hedged at 60% per month as originally pointed out.

In the 3 April RNS it states hedging income in March was $30M and that averaged realised oil price sold in January and February was $62 bbl. If the production was as expected at 75,000 barrels a day which gives 2.325M barrels of produced in March and if 60% was hedged which is 1.395M barrels would give a hedge profit of $21.50. The average futures price on Brent in March was $33.73 and if $21.50 is added = $55.23 and taken some off the hedge to cover the financing cost for that instrument shows that the hedge does work on a monthly basis. The volumes in the hedge used in January and February allow an upper collar to realise the $62b price. 930M barrels were supplied unhedged and lets say it is $3 loss and the net gain from hedging is $27M profit in March.

The average Brent futures price from 1 April to 31 May was $29.52 and for June it was $40.77. So on the basis of how it worked in March. So in April and May 4.575M barrels of oil of which 2.745M was hedged and the gain is around $59-$60 on $35 breakeven. The loss on 1.83M barrels of $7 is $12.8M So the FCF gain in April and May is around $48M. For June 2.25M barrels produced with 60 hedged at 1.35M giving $29M FCF and $5 on 0.9M barrels is $4.5M gain. So from 1 March until 30 June the company generated $122M FCF. In January and February the company had different cost data and the breakeven was higher. I therefore stand corrected in my earlier comment in that I now believe it is hedged at 60% per month as originally pointed out.

The price tag of Occidental selling to Total identified the Ghana tax on the deal which blocked progress. It identifies a tax consideration of $850m if Tullow sold Jubilee and TEN approximately. This gives a net spreadsheet value after tax of $2.8B which the RBL and bond holders are likely to note. After selling Kenya assets and the value of the other non Ghana portfolio the company valuation at the current oil price is around 51p. At $55 a barrel the share fair value price is around 62-65p. This of course is just my opinion.

Peter Hug on Kitco sums up the situation to an absolute tee.

I am sure Fresnillo will get to £15 a share and it make go higher like £20. Some investors need to need to consider capital gains tax as they have several winners on the go This will be my last note on the board until I reinvest again. I am happy to run 1500 shares from say 680p to 1018p with all the dips and buy backs. If it does pull back it will be investors like me that will enter for second dippings on a bullish case and help the recovery and next advance.

How strange it appears to have disappeared without trace from Tullow website. I can no longer find 2021 and 2022 production anywhere.

https://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN2360C1-OZABS This happened during the work on completion processes on Ntomme well and that was probably a two week down time. As for 2021 production levels it does include what is happening in Non Ghana fields as well as TEN and Jubilee.

The ntomme well was successfully drilled by 11th May as reported by Kosmos Energy. It was then expected to undertake a completion programme and come on line in the last week of June. I suspect Covid-19 procedures have delayed things before it can come on line. The Chair Dorothy has been quick to publish important news bad or good and that role has probably been handed over 1 July. I suspect the news is saved for the 29th July update so they have something for us to read up on. They also may have delayed to a degree to see if the oil price might perk up.

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJS5eDJRBft14ANzgM34lQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByZzJoOXByBGNvbG8DaXIyBHBvcwM0BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--/RV=2/RE=1594922500/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.hardmanandco.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2020%2f06%2fHardman-Research-Anglo-Asian-June-2020.pdf/RK=2/RS=bXwpqxXFs781sSlIBz.6UdfaEiY-

To generate 5,750 ounces of gold on a 90% recovery rate.
The access to higher grade ore in q4 should guarantee hitting the annual GEO target of at least 75,000 GEOs.
The only real issue is whether the gold price would average high 1700-1800 in Q4. If it does the share has a potential to hit 175-180p. If the gold price is 1350-1450 range than 135p would be fair value. Of course the resource addition replacing the 75,000 GEOs mined out adds further value. Overall it is a buy.

Ghana performance is on par with Japan with a 85.1% recovery rate. Its quite an impressive result and a lot of credit to their health services. They are just 11-12% behind the UK and Germany. Quite pleased Tullow shut the South Africa office.

After reading through the gold ores mined data, I have decided this was the far bigger issue than ore grade in the end as they may have selected areas containing more copper for ease of access and were having to cope with quite a bit on their plate. I will support the management this time and Covid 19 is certainly not their fault.

Roll on 29th July. I hope the new CEO has a good story to pitch.

Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. Its not about holding nerve its about having your exit and entries planned and staying with rules that you have created and learned in the past.

If it dips and takes the buy okay, if I miss the boat so be it. The Covid hit was forewarned in March. The problem is still present for this quarter. AAZ is not alone with a Covid-19 issue being a monkey on its back.

The dilution issue on gold grade could have been supported with more data. They could have indicated how much the shortfall was due to lack of access to some of the underground ore. I think high 120's is about right for the stock until more clarity is given.

Nickel

We shall see. A miner has to average the cost over a commodity price over an entire year. Everyone is getting very greedy about silver. Fresnillo has delivered 4 poor reports in a row. Just maybe they can avoid a fifth. Tony