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Tamle I can't find any other interview. Thanks for letting me know it was another oldie.

Responding to cluelesstim

I recall the Tullow CFO explaining in a presentation just before or after RBL 6 month approval that if $1B in sales was achieved by the spring of 2021 that the $1B goes into RBL paying off in debt and that in return the RBL covers the $300M bonds that are due in June 2021 and that a $300m new repayment is scheduled several years later as part of a rescheduled RBL payback programme.

Cluelesstim

Hence why news of Kenya sale is so important. Once it starts to work through the bonds are to be paid that are due in 2021 under the RBL. A new arrangement is also worked through on later bonds through RBL rescheduling but that wont' happen until March 2021 at the earliest. If debt is being reduced by $900M and oil recovers say to $50-$55 a barrel, the company would have an adequate income to pay back all remaining bonds.

reduced more than 5% in last line. Word omitted.

Looking at the entire FTSE 100 and how BP share value has been cut after the fall in gold price, I had assumed that the yield would be readjusted. I suspected they would amend it to 22 cents net for 2020 which equates to a 5% yield on a SP price of 350p. The company is selling quite a few assets and some of the money from those was in part for dividend payment. Taking the sale of assets and loss of income projected in 2020, results in a 400p share price. Debt repayments remove another 30p to give 370p and taking away 22p divi if retained gives a target of 348p. Another factor may be Mexico debt repayments due in Q2 that take off more off the target price but that would still be around 320-325p area.

BP requires the oil price to be above $40 a barrel and so far that is holding up. Like it or not a 5% yield or better is only paid out by a small group of companies in a Covid-19 affected market. The key is not losing all the divi or it being reduced than 5% yield on current share price. All the above is my opinion.

https://cruxinvestor.com/videos/pensana-metals-asxpm8---diversified-supply-chain-for-chinese-critical-to-this-thesis

The resource and reserves in the ground plus the plant and intangibles give a value of 21.2p. However serving the hedge loses 1.6p = 19.6p
The rest is forecasting what they will earn in the second half against what they may spend in developing assets. A lot depends on whether gold stays around the current area for the coming weeks. The longer it lingers near $1900 the more likely Shanta can take out 18p.

Depreciation is a more appropriate term than devaluations in my previous. A bit late in the day.

To dotlink and others in how to value a gold mine.

After excluding the current years output as mined out, the company has around 500,000 ounces of reserves gold.
This is valued at $100 per ounce or $50M.
The company has 4M ounces of reserve silver so lets say its value is $4M.

The resources of gold are 1,300,000 ounces and these are valued at $30 per ounce = $39M.
The silver resources are 10M ounces and so another $5M.
The above is $98M and the company has $29M on its balance sheet. This gives $127M.

The company has a functional production plant an its typical value would be $100M allowing for a lot of depreciation to date. So the money in the ground, balance sheet and plant value the book at $227M or £177M or around 154p a share.

On top of all this we have to forecast what is the likely profit in the next 6 months of ore that we have already discount as being mined. The company has given revenue targets but lets say it 37,000 ounces of gold and the AISC is $800 and the average sale price was giving $800 profit and $600 after government take and royalties. This gives an increase in value of $22M on the balance sheet. This adds 15p to the share price and gives us a target of around 170p on a gold price average of 1600 between now and 31 December. Those of us buying see 20% increased value.

I am now far happier for the Irish project as 125,000 ounces of gold resources at $30 = $3.75M and AAZ spend some time plus $2.2M to have a claim on it. If the irish dream is a lot more than a bottle of Baily's cream or Jaimeson's Piper whisky and we really do find a million ounces of resources coming to the company and 125,000 of resources becomes reserves than this company will be worth a lot more than the projection above.

I have not included copper and assume its value helps off set plant devaluations.

1. We want to be updated on Ntomme and a more detailed discussion about TEN recovery in general.
2. Jubilee has some good news to recap on, but the strategy of future development at a later date needs to be discussed.
3. The non Ghana oil fields may have continued to hit their targets, but confirmation is a positive we like to hear.
4. The process to complete the Uganda sale is given a run through and hopefully no trip wires on that one.
5. The Kenya asset sale is the elephant in the room and could move the share price if Tullow have several bidders.
6. The company has achieved the positive operating cash flow that is hoped for.
7. The Suriname drill is still provisionally planned for.
8. The CEO gives a well thought out plan and vision. This is a critical mover in the share price as it creates the future story of Tullow Oil as to why someone should be an investor. I have no problem myself in Tullow Oil becoming Tullow Energy.
Tony

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/south-central-america/2020/guyana-s-deadlock-chills-the-investment-climate

Courtesy of oil news 24/7

The NAV without Barrick acquisition and resource above consumption mined out must be plus 30% from start of the year. On top of that we have say another 33% on top of the whole new resource pie. Take us from 8p to 10.4p as the NAV increase add on Barrick etc takes us 13.8p. Of course some debt paid off etc takes us to 15.4p. So the old 8p is now 15.4p. The company is now earning bags more money and if gold stay around this level in Q3 it goes to 18.4p. I kid you not and it takes into account hedge.

Looked at recovery rates on 18th July and compared them with overnight figures of 22 July.

New York 66.4% recovery up 5.7%
New Jersey 69.3% recovery up 6.7%.
Texas 54.3% recovery 1.8% up big change of trend.
Illinois 89.3% down 0.9% but climbed 11% the week before.
California 31.8% recovery up 2.7% first move up in weeks.
Florida remains a basket case 11.8% recovery down another 0.7%
North Carolina 76.4% recovery up 6.2%
Overall a lot of States have gone into plateau phase and a number are moving up and down a percent or so.
USA public are responding to the death rate and starting to respond in preventing spread. Florida and Maryland stand out as failures to make any recovery and show no sign of it.

Tony

https://cruxinvestor.com/opinions/tag/pensana-metals/

I hold Shell, BP and Tullow which are all priced in the UK currency. I believe they will all rebound. Take Tullow now earning $9 a barrel from its unhedged oil and it clear around $30M from it hedged. The upshot is that Tullow are making $38M a month. Broadly in line with the FCF they generated in 2019. Yet its a pound cheaper a share than in 2019. Yes they won't have Uganda asset but they at least drop $575M off the debt pile. If you account a loss of Uganda at 22p off of last year's share price this is still 75% down. Take another 22p off for Kenya and it still only a third of 2019 prices taking 140p as a base. Okay take off the problem with TEN but add some back for more in Jubilee it still should be above 60p. Its crazy being down at 30p. The company is meaner and leaner and not getting any credit for it.

Its not that tough if you buy on a retreat and sell on a major advance. Trying to catch a bottom or a top is a fools errand. An RNS can appear anytime and some USA pharmaceutical company buys the company and being caught waiting for an ideal entry suddenly is not so clever. As long as you invest sensibly its okay.

So I have averaged my pool down to 163p. Support line at 168p gave away. I am not sure if it will test the 139p support line. Certainly clearing out a lot of overbought signals. If it goes lower, I will keep buying.

As an ex Hummingbird investor, I left this company because of how its run by the Betts family, in law relations they are married to and their conduct on insider arrangements is a bit dodgy, how the company pays themselves with 1p options on quite a major scale is a me first company, how in the documentation the board can award themselves significant amount of shares to the directors and Chief finance officer and change the criteria or justification of how they are awarded would do some African governments proud on how to feather their own nest. I can go on with all the serious incompetent errors Daniel Betts has made and is a law onto himself. I will never invest in Hummingbird resources ever again until Daniel betts is fired. They are a bunch of Mali cowboys and if they said it was daylight outside, I would seriously draw the curtains and have a look myself. I have no confidence in what goes on in Hummingbird Resources at all.

Since that time Covid-19 has seriously taken off in the America's and Africa. Everything is running slower especially if it has anything to do with Kenya.

Copper is going up as well. AAZ also produces copper.