Member Info for Tornadotony

The Chinese moon festival starts on 1 October to coincide with a full moon.

The oil moves in August and September are being massively influenced by China. Parts of china have experienced flooding and temporary problems, but they are exhausting significant oil stores they bought back in April and May when prices were low and hence why we are seeing a very temporary fall in the price. USA consumption may well pick up in a week or two if their driving season still has an uptick.. The China demand consumption will be looking to place new orders in September. Some are from the tea pot oil refiners who buy for six months use, but the spring supply overhang will be gone and hence forward oil prices next month are higher and are the major driver for oil to move up. The moon festival dates will mean the country has a shut down week of holiday and providing there is no outbreaks of Covid-19, I dare say the Chinese will make it a good consumption week.

I therefore believe Tullow should recover in price later in August and hopefully through September. I will drop the company a line about Ntomme well start up and encourage them to let us know when its on line.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2020/08/07/iraq-pledges-to-deepen-oil-output-cuts-in-august-september/

Support line are at 25.1 and 26p and resistance at 27.9. I suspect Tullow is being led by moves on oil which is I believe following earlier backwardation but the future price of oil is looking higher and apparently is in contango for September. The line is to hold and add on the dips if possible. I can not see an obvious chart pattern and hence why we see Tullow following BP and Shell which are also following oil price. I would expect BP to have stayed up as it offers a divi next week but the market is ignoring it.

After further research I have noted that as gold has increased so much in price, there is now a strong trend to buy and sell platinum jewellery in the retail market. This trend has come strongly into play in recent weeks. Additionally I have looked into the reserves and resources of Sylvania Plc and I have concluded this is very good share to hold in that regard. The share operates at a huge discount because of the challenges of operating in South Africa.

If it pulls back sharply will buy back with the longs closed acting as a 30 day short position. If wrong, I will be out, but my opinion is that a retreat to support lines is a more likely event in the absence of real news. Looking for 188-190p.

Had me in stitches.

Lets face it, if he sells the Kenya assets for $20M more than what Dorothy or anybody else could achieve, then we got a good deal. So we judge in 12 months time.

Gina was on Bloomberg last night on an interview forewarning a big rotation into energy stocks could start today or next week. The energy sector is massively undervalued compared to the 100 PE rate of quite a lot of sectors that are momentum driven. Those sitting on oil stocks should hold them.

Up 50% in two weeks. This has impacts downstream on items that incorporate silver.

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/commodities/gold-price-investment-physical-demand-falls-coronavirus-pandemic-price-jumps/2037506/

I decided to close off on Shanta today and it will probably now sky rocket. Banked a very good profit from around 11.75p to near 16.6p. If the opportunity arises for second dippings late in September I may be tempted if I have not bought a house or a new car. Stay healthy mind, body and soul.
Tony

Tedjames

A total of 3 posts in gold related area. I have been trading in this are for many years.

Lesson 101 on gold. There is a physical market and a paper market. The paper market is driving the gold price and is levered about 100:1 for every ounce of physical gold. Physical buying of gold is collapsing in may parts of the globe. Physical selling of gold in recycling markets is probably now taking off and it can soon equate to 30% of the entire gold miner production. Paper gold holders will evaluate when to take profits and exit and then transfer that wealth that has not increased like gold and in fact those other assets may have deflated in price because of the pandemic. The point I am making is that inflection point could arrive any time. When paper gold markets sell the drop is very dramatic.

If Gold hits $2350 an ounce it will buy more of any UK asset then at any time since it came off the gold standard bar a short peak in 1980. Anyone scribing gold to go higher is suspect without a thorough credible explanation why as we have many other assets of depressed value to buy than gold. One could argue that $2100 is a more realistic gold top as huge amounts of gold above ground can be sold to buy something else (not bonds or shares). Until those other assets inflate gold is likely to hit a top.

I have seen a lot of drill results over many years and bar one set of drill holes identifying a decent outcrop most of the results were mediocre to economically poor to extract. If the share is going up its gold price holding up. A point to note is that most production is in Q4 the Q3 results were unlikely to be that much better than Q2. AAZ could well retreat if the gold price drops back. It could then rise again on better production later on if that happens.

I strongly suspect the oil price next year is being hugely underestimated. I can see oil above $55 a barrel, Tullow acquiring more hedge if they want it at that price and hence why the thinking behind actually doing a Suriname drill. Tullow share price back on 50p when it hits as the company would be earning $180-200M a year FCF. Kenya sale probably working through around that time and Uganda proceeds banked and net debt reduced by $600M.

I have to say I am quite concerned with the behaviour of the Kenya government of late and all might not be well on the deal going ahead. The Kenya government may now want a large piece of the pie. The behaviour of Trump over Tiktok has set a new tone of stupidity and what is actually legal on acquisitions and transfers.

Tiny profit taken but have changed my mind. Will come back to this one next year.

As for Platinum it is vital to note that the market for diesel cars has dropped dramatically after they were found to be polluting. Platinum prices collapsed afterwards. Its main market is now jewellery and bars. In 2018 there was excess platinum on the market for sale. It is less popular in jewellery because of it high melting point and difficulty to work with.
Overall the new normal is gold to be higher than platinum. I wish folks well here.

After finding support at 188p it is now testing resistance. I won't be to surprised if it eases back to 192 area. It may act in a range until we get some news or influencing event.

To Stoodio

Regarding the situation for your cousin, you may want to consider looking at Creo Medical speedboat device. Microwave technology as opposed to radiotherapy, chemotherapy etc. Not sure of the latest on that device, and how relevant it would be, however if there is a clinical trial going, what is there to lose and the very least it would remove a lot of pain if and when that situation arises. Best wishes to your family under the circumstances. Tony

This is most likely to take off soon. Platinum has hardly moved up compared to gold and silver. Just a matter of time before penny finally drops.

No I have a AAZ as my copper play but thanks for letting me know.