Member Info for Tornadotony

$46.25 on futures. This is way above the forward curve price. They are holding above $51 a barrel and doing better than breakeven.

only gold not old in previous

It looks as if your right for today. I am not that optimistic for the sector myself. I do hold a chunk of AAZ that I am not trading with. It is my old left on precious metals until reloading time.

Possibly last week of September. No hurry until underground gold is available.

Put more orders on the book in case they want to kiss 180's again as a double up. In a response copied on here the company gave end of summer 21 September as latest deadline not end of this week. Suggests peer review deadlines next week and Panel agreement week after. Company informed a week later.

As someone with a higher degree in immunology, I could not believe the Synairgen share price was going down today. The finding of re-infection in Hong Kong makes this product very important.

It would be nice to have July and August production data.

I could not buy myself at that level. I have waited for this move for ages. All the overbought signals washed out. Now ready for good news later in the week. If it retests 178p I double up.

216p short closed 196.6p added at 188p. Piling in. I can no believe our luck. This will be sky high end of week. Massively oversold.

Tim

I read it in an article a few days ago but it does not contradict what the CEO says. Total can not control the speed of Uganda approvals on works they have to deliver hence time lines of FID vary from Dec 2020 to August 2021. Tony

After paying the tax bill to Uganda which I thought as $15M, Tullow receives back $15M from Total for 2020 expenditure in Uganda. Total expects FID in August 2021.

Becoming a regular pattern of down on Monday and very strong rallies on Thursday or coming into it.

Ha ha ha,

The chances are between 1 in 4 or 1 in 3. Otherwise its not much of a prospect.

Harel, I agree with your comments. Its still a wild cat, but the geology on that part of the demerara plateau gives Tullow a real chance of a find.

The Uganda sale has a contractual end date for the deal to be fully completed by 23 October. This was accepted by all parties, so that S500M is paid off in November at the latest. The FID at the latest in Uganda is August 2021 so that gives another $75M off debt by that time. The Kenya restart to FID makes it a more attractive asset to sell or farm down in 2021.

I double checked that Liza was 193 Km off shore and Goliathberg site was 260km but nevertheless its in the Demerara plateau and remains Tullow's best prospect in that block.

H Tim

The Apache find was in Upper Cretacious Santonian Classics within Campanian sands on Demerara Plateau. Marcel on block 45 next door to block 47 was Cenomanian Canje formation source rock (Turonian organic shale) and they found 109M barrels of oil also in Demerara Plateau. Goliathberg I block 47 is upper cretaceous it has a depth of 1900 metres and distance to shore is similar to Liza discovery off Guyana. Its not the same as the other two discoveries to the south but has a very interesting geology and I would not be quick to right off prospects. If Tullow hit oil it could be a big find. I believe the company compare the rock formations as similar to West Africa discoveries. So there is some hope. Tony

My preference was conversion of 2C to 2P in Jubilee and TEN. Perhaps if they find oil in Suriname they might sell the whole block and get closer to $1B asset sale target. In fact off loading $1.4B debt and getting it down to $1.5B total debt would elevate enterprise value on the equity side.

The Ntomme-9 flow data is what I mention few days back from the company. The key point is that it requires Ghana Government approval after reviewing flow data to go live. As everyone probably knows through any dealings with public servants everywhere is that we have delays in their automated systems, staff working or not working from home. If anyone thinks having lots of staff working at home is great I suggest thy survey the customers to find its a God awful service and that applies to any outfit that had a call centre. The service arena is the pits because of Sars 2.

I attach a website from Latvia that on Friday publishes the infection frequency affecting travel in Europe. The latest sea of red is what has depressed oil stocks last week. The one good piece of news is the death rate is not dissimilar to normal influenza at this time. https://www.spkc.gov.lv/lv/valstu-saslimstibas-raditaji-ar-covid-19-0 Look for August date in English.
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So where is Tullow going. Well the 55p scenario is 6PE at $175M cash flow and 37p is 4PE at the cash flow scenario I mentioned this morning which is $53 oil price at 75,000 per day annual production. August was going to be a low point until China buys in September. Nobody can be sure how this plays out, but on the whole I buy low and sell high and I am staying with that rule. If you believe oil is dead in the water than you believe massive and prolonged deflation and never getting on a plane again.

First thanks or the info on Ntomme well. I am fairly sure it goes on line end of the month which is not that far away.

I believe that an oil price of $49 per barrel in 2021 generates 175M cash flow per annum on a production target of 82,000-83,000 barrels a year. The share price should be 55p in thee circumstances. At 75,000 barrels but at an oil price of $53 a barrel the $175M cash flow is achieved. So either improved production or a better oil price than currently envisaged gives quite a decent value for the company.

If we are lucky enough to see Tullow hit a decent find in Suriname I could also add to 2C resources and increase the share price by 20p on current levels. Overall it does not take a lot for things to be quite favourable for Tullow. What is key is not to waste any resource and financial outcomes that may be gained.