Member Info for Tornadotony

The comment on JPM Morgan was after 1 April 2020.

Interesting to note that a head of mergers was put in place by Dorothy before Rahul arrived at the beginning of the year her name was Anastasia Deulines and was internally promoted. A lot of speculation is going on that a lot of mergers may happen in the industry in the next 12 months. It is something to have in mind in the background. It may come to nothing of course.

I note Paul McDade has returned from a long sabbatical and clearly has a sense of humour with some of his skills listed in Linked in. Incidentally he worked at that company for 17 years and clearly has taken a hit for what happen in TEN last year.

The RNS prompted to check a few holdings. Contrarius Investment Management (CIM) bought 59M (4.2%) shares in Tullow between June 2019 and June 2020. They had no record of sales according to FT source in that time and we have 37% institution investors plus Sam and his company groupings and we are not alone. Around 40 million shares were picked up above sells in May and June and a lot of those involve JP Morgan and 3M by Merryl Lynch and helped us to 38p. The biggest seller was Goldman Sachs at 10M shares and they got out 30 June 100%. I therefore would see any future RNS with GS as a buyer as being hugely positive for Tullow. We also note if we have a seller it is possibly JP Morgan as they held 2.9% of Tullow but never trigger the 3% above or below marker.

I have looked through every source that I could to see if there was any negative news on Tullow anywhere and I found nothing. What I have discovered is that our CEO has a significant staff resource at Tullow that he has to interact with. Some staff are working at home. I noticed how some female staff at Tullow had to give time for home schooling children and you realise just how important it is that UK children do go back to their schools next week as more effort can then be given to the company and focussed behind Rahul on what needs to be done. The CEO is an intelligent person dealing with hundreds of issues and people and he is paid well to do it. Unlike Paul McDade everyone Rahul comes across is new to him and he has to work out quickly where the weakest and strongest points are in the resource of personnel around him. Lets give this guy a chance and see if he delivers on 9 September. If Ntomme-9 is running great, if we get a clear finishing line on Uganda and have a lot of positivity about what is going on in Kenya this share has to move up. Knocking a fiver off oil assets sold per barrel in a currency that as night follows day is going to deflate in value is likely to reverse in six months time. We should not get distracted by it and instead look at the other risks.

Overall do not let the slide in Tullow wreck your weekend. Next week could be our El Alamein and the general get his resources operating on an effective plan. Lets hope today was our darkest hour.

ntomme-9 has to be operational as no RNS was issued to say it was not. After flow tests and approval they need to have production metrics for 9 September so it must be on line.

I would not be surprised to see a big pharma investor or a fund acting on their behalf is how we may know what happens next. September is a good month for it to happen.

Filling up. I can not believe how dumb some investors are here.

This is incredible.

Tullow drop from its peak of 38.16p to 27.8p is the same as BP, Shell and Exxon. The further drop to our close yesterday matches the drop of smaller oil companies. PMO was matching Tullow's pullback up to its recent RNS action then dropped 15% lower from its respective peaked. All oil companies peaked the same day as Tullow. The evidence shows a sector wide response and events are not that specific to the company.

https://constructionreviewonline.com/2019/07/ghana-to-commence-phase-one-of-new-pipeline-project/

I think it had to do with this project.

For Tim

https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/World-Bank-pressures-government-over-5bn-Eni-gas-817225

Every investor takes their own risks. None of us control the market. The market logic on valuations can be irrational.

I am sticking with Tullow. I believe the drawdowns in USA will increase, I believe China is ordering their winter oil stocks and The University of Colorado hurricane predictions of a record number in the Gulf of Mexico are proving spot on.
I believe Tullow assets after debt are worth more than the current SP . One further point is that Spain have said no to another lockdown. Politicians know they can no afford national halt on everything so the nadir energy demand has passed in my opinion. What happens to Tullow share price I shall wait and see.

The last time down here Brent oil was $35. It is trading way below a fire sale price. I am playing the longer game on this one.

Slift

I can be persuaded and it all depends where there is a market for what Tullow have. Tony

Tim

I remember reading that it would take 2-3 yrs for Ghana to build the pipework to export Tullow gas. Hence we got a 3 year forecast. Tony

Slift

Kenya needs a much bigger oil company to realise exploitation of the discovered oil. I favour Tullow getting out of East Africa. I favour keeping Suriname without a farm down. I support a farm down in Guyana to another oil major (Keep stake at 25% and Tullow is not the operator).

They will be concerned of France and Spain second wave. The risk of NHS wards filling up again could be 8 weeks away. We could have 100's of people desperate for the product. The window to be ready is fast approaching.

Put them in the order book for the price you were quoted for.

Cleared the way for a nice big rally.

Org30

On peer review no as multiple sources will not know other comments.

So far no rally and a gap above in the charts. I still think this rockets up. Nothing has really changed for earlier in the month.

Lyndhurst hope you got near the bottom. Remember you can use the filter for the baby Gretas.