Member Info for Tornadotony

What I object to is the "my babies not ugly" brigade (Made me laugh)

Parsley that is so true for so many boards. If your making money just be kind and if you lose here and there its all part of what happens when investing. Folks should not all become keyboard warriors and just respect one another as we share one thing in common. We make our own management decisions on our monies and invest and trade that fits a method that works for us as an individual. Most of us do not pay some hedge fund manager or broker donkey to oversee our funds and deliver a high costs bill for what is often a loss or trivial gain on a portfolio.

This would show a bottom has formed on the 5 hour chart.

Conflict is usually not near mine assets. It tends not to affect the share price. AAZ has retreated before the next report due within the next two weeks. I suspect we are bottoming out and should be near a production growth phase.

I would say your calculations were fairly spot on.

1. Shareholders were mentioned in the same sentence as host governments between 7-7.30 mins. Had a mention with others later on. So we were identified as part of the stakeholder community.
2. They are showing the value that exists in the company to get the offers they want and that's in everyone's interest. Rahul gave a hint when he commended Kosmos what Shell paid for their farm down assets today. So any buyer knows what Tullow expects to receive and they are open to those kind of offers. (Looking for $200M from several exploration farm downs.)
3. They fully expect Uganda completes but in Q4. Delivers $500M when it arrives and $75M next year on FID.
4. They are finding ways to save an additional $150M in savings than existed before the last RBL meeting in March 2020.
- This can either be spent on SE Jubilee development and increase production or it off sets assets not sold but retained. .
5. Kenya is on pause and being re-evaluated as to where it has a low cost delivery element. This is vital in the discussions with the Kenya government that a project has to be exploitable in a low oil price environment. I also makes it more attractive to farm down.

Reducing costs $350M is on par of saving $12.5 a barrel off production costs. In 2019 Revenue was $1680M and the savings now allow revenue to drop t0 $1330M. The $500M once paid over reduces interest debt per barrel by $1.50. So annual sales need to be $1290M to deliver 2019 like profits but then adjusted to the lower production. In essence the metrics changed with oil prices at $63 are managed down to $49 a barrel. If we get oil recovery to $53 a barrel that is $110M extra profit that could not have been generated in 2019 or 2020. At $61 the profit is $330M on 75,000 barrels a day target. Lets say recovery improvement just maintains the 75,000 target. So the need to do an RI that yields precious little is not necessary. Between extra savings, farm down of some exploration assets, Uganda sale, Uganda FID and perhaps earning an additional profit of $75M they can pay off $1B in debts next year.

For me the ideas and hard work they are putting together should give the banks the opportunity to extend out their debt repayments. The company through better management is adding 18 months of life in production. If that efficiency is recognised and the company is allowed to move out a lot of debt repayments by a year or more and the company is supported in developing the SE Jubilee to maintain consistent or slightly improved production and the means to reduce gas flaring through other developments than I can see how it comes together.

Tim,

I saw the move on Kenya as being very different. They are exploring if it can be profitable at a lower oil price. It opens a different dialogue with the Kenya government. I can see a strong argument on how future debt can be repackaged. Good luck on whatever you do.

Tony

The target recovery is 5% or 90M barrels of oil. If they only got 3%, that is 60M barrels, which is the entire annual production for TEN and Jubilee this year. On the annualised basis of field life that is at least 3,750 barrels of oil extra a year. With additional gas management improvements, I can see Tullow hitting 82,500 barrels a year and this really helps the whole budget and with cost savings on top it looks good.

I listened to the call presentation and very impressed like others here.

That's a much better heading

I have managed patent portfolios.

Synairgen has patents granted for using their beta interferon in COPD patients and asthmatics against typica cold bearing viruses and the coverage is USA, Europe and Japan.

A filed patent is not granted. It is important to file in key markets asap. The time taken depends on anyone challenging the patents as they can show they have a patent for that use already. Anyone filing on a later date has the lost the argument for originality supporting the patent innovation. So filing is a very important step. The company has 12 months to modify their application providing they have more supportive data. It is therefore likely that patents should get awarded late in 2021 if it is all straight forward which incidentally is most likely.

I bought more this morning and have contacted the company to question patent market coverage.

Tony

It helps give an idea of what a farm down would bring in from some exploration assets.

Just need to keep rallying for a few days to complete a bottom formation.

China is now likely to stimulate its home market, where by a fall off in overseas exports is replaced with promoting consumption amongst in populace. Certainly air traffic within China itself is up. China has not got an issue with providing Africa governments with loans on oil infra- structure development. They may also give loans to oil companies. So if western banks invest less in oil it could be replaced by other Asian banks.

I have read it through several times.

The takeaway is that Uganda sale is fully expected to go through. Ntomme well is operating fine and production minima elevated to 73,000 barrels a day. All the costs in H1 clarified. They consider Suriname and Guyana as key assets. hey are seeking farm downs in the coming months on exploration assets. Dialogue with Kenya asset on-going. All options on the table for time being. The Uganda sale in the background would make it more constructive. However the key is demonstrating to the Kenya Government is that it has to be profitable to extract. It needs the Government to change VAT laws on the oil sector which they only recently introduced as it inhibits development.

The liquidity base lines are on some horrendous cases on the worse scenario. The base case becomes an issue on April 2022 notes management. If $1B sales pursued and met that actually gets dealt with. The issue is whether they halt sales at $575M and seek an alternative. The additional savings being found reduces risk of increasing more on debt.

Like with most oil companies the future is dependent on the oil price. At $60 a barrel the company is lean and mean and gets out of trouble. At $45 in 2021 there are a lot of challenges.

Clearer picture on technical chart.

Gold taking off again back up to $1938. I strongly suspect AAZ has put in a higher low. We should have confirmation by Friday.

I want to hear what Rahul about attention to detail (TEN needs a lot of it), handling of situations in Kenya and getting the Kenya Government on side of the importance of perhaps a bigger company leading the project and Kenya delivering policies and actions that also make it attractive. About getting Kenya officials away from macho them and us and working out what is best for all with Rahul using quality diplomatic language. I am looking out for the possibility that may get into some alternative perhaps greener energy projects longer term in Africa near the end of his talk. I do want to hear more on Suriname and Guyana but also a lot more on Ghana which is Tullow's home ground on how Jubilee and TEN are being run to their best ability and he gives more info on the latest Ntomme well. I hope he can enlighten us more on production profile at least for 2021. Overall I hope he comes across as a linker understanding the business financial side, the geology, the engineering, the ability to converse wit governments as well as other oil companies. I hope he has a really great pitch tomorrow that shows what he is doing in the near future, intermediate term and a vision where the company might be in the longer term.

As some of you may know I have worked in medical sciences and research for most of life and the best discoveries were quite often relatively simplistic as others could develop and use the innovation, they offered a different healthcare pathway than currently available and so were disruptive in the market place, they were patentable or the know how could still be protected, they had a big impact on the patient (customer) such as they had vastly reduced risk of mortality or significantly less morbidity, and were probably less expensive and safer than other alternatives available. I just feel synairgen scores high on most of those criteria if not all and they are likely to have a strong route to market.

The key for the company is ensuring they have the right team on all the elements to deliver success. They also must remember that 100% of nothing = nothing. To get to the end you have a percentage of something that de-risk the journey to get to the end in the fastest possible time.

I put an order on for Shanta, the shares just go back up again. At least I have rebuilt my AAZ position. Just can not get cheap Shanta shares. Its impossible.

I just read the RNS again and can not believe where the SP is on that news. Someone has thrown the baby out with the bath water.