Member Info for Tornadotony

The spread is awful.

Remember the break from 12p with an open at 12.8and then it stayed at 14p and hovered at13.8p for awhile to close at 17p later in the day. So far the action is dead similar.

On the houry stochs move from zero to 50%. Volume is huge at 13M an hour. We are not overbought by any means. I see us testing the resistance lines at 28 .x and 29.65 at some point. The breakout point being above 30p.

No selling to those shorters so far.

I would be surprised if anyone can get an order in at the off.

All the issues that bothered me at the close yesterday are resolved. Tullow is no longer overbought. The hourly stochastics are at zero and oversold. We had a support line down at 17 which has moved up to 23.7p and it was tested and we bounced off. The share is 4 to 5 pennies away from any resistance lines above us. The RSI levels dropped 18 points. I hope this is a good position for a rise tomorrow.

As for the CEO position, I presume they have zoom and carried out a virtual final set of interviews. They were close to appointing someone on 12th March or had a short list. They must be close to giving us a name fairly soon and I would expect it before an AGM later this month.

It held quite strongly with 25% of the daily volume in the last hour. I am all in by the way and hold all my shares for tomorrow.

5 hourly now clear and one hourly stochs now on zero. Deck is clear to have another go higher.

Resistance lines 29.9p and 28.65p
Support line at 23.8p established. A support line at 25.6p was being formed but we need the close above that level to keep it.

Brent overbought is disappearing just the slow stochs indicator on the daily overbought otherwise neutral.

Tullow daily RSI is neutral at 59. 5 Hourly RSI on 72. Dropped 14 points since late afternoon yesterday. We should soon lose the overbought signals.

If I am right than we could bounce back and forth a couple of times to 27p which day traders like a wash and repeats.

Could well be the bottom around 25.3 ish. We have another 3 hours of churning. I would be surprised if we got 20p this side of easter.

Now 75 apologies I must have viewed the daily RSI which is now 61. Still another dip back takes us low 70's and we should be closer to not being overbought early afternoon.

This is great and exactly what we want.

Do not be to surprised if we see 24p again later this morning. It may well churn again. I would not expect a break above yesterday's close until USA open or it would be short lived. The 5 hourly RSI was down to 77 when I last looked. Really need to see it around 60. 85-86 was way to hot yesterday. I much prefer having a support line at 24p than 17p.

This is all normal moves. It was fully expected. We will have a better view of support and resistance areas for the stock and it will be less overbought.

Expect this for 5 hours or so as we become less overbought. If you want it to go higher it needs to cool off a bit. 24p looks like strong support.

Mr Tibbles
First of all I do not have perfect foresight on markets and nobody has that quality. What I wrote this morning was instinct opinion. Perhaps I should not comment as much as I do.
As for Covid-19, Prof John Newton from Oxford was with Health Minister the other day in one of the daily briefings. I briefly worked on a project with him two decades back. They have excellent people working on the problem in far greater detail than any of us are being made fully aware of and they are more competent than myself. I should emphasise healthcare staff continually professionally develop to maintain their competency and skills. Anyone who has retired for a number of years would feel like they are Britain's last hope on a recall unless they were out of practice by a year or two.

Those going into the Nightingale hospital in London are away from their partner and families are required to stay in a nearby hotel. It is not just the issue if they have the right PPE, have up to date competency, do not have health issue themselves or looking after someone who is vulnerable and needs their attention, but also having the emotional bravery to take on a challenge knowing one mistake could harm a work colleague, patients as well as themselves. They are all heroes going into that scenario. I certainly could not do what any of them are doing.

Second resistance level is at 36.35p
First resistance is at 30.23p
38.2 FIB 13 week low is at 28.4p.
First support line is at 17.64p.
Pivot point is at 23.76p. (Where support may be developing).
40 day moving average is at 23.8p.
38.2% Fib from 4 week high is at 21.2p.
We also know we have a gap in the chart between 24p to 25p.

Overall around 24p has a lot of indicative support elements in the chart. Above todays close it only get exciting again if Tullow breaks 30.2p. I share this with the board so you know I am not shorting/ ramping but give a picture where we might be and the zone we are now in.

First of all both Kenyan and Uganda assets are involved in the raising of $1B to pay off debts that need to be paid as part of the RBL agreement. A well informed analyst following Tullow for years stated that in the current market where so many other assets are up for sale that around $968M would be earned through the divestment of its West African assets. The rest probably is a partial farm down to 30% from a Guyana block. That is your $1B result from two major assets and 1 smaller deal probably also with Total.

Getting rid of that debt stops the company going bust. However they have $1.9B debt remaining along with leasing contracts and decommissioning costs. This company is not earning much on free cash flow and survives by selling assets.

The remaining Ghana assets is probably worth $3.5B but after removing all the liabilities and tax issues we are lucky to arrive at a 60p value (more likely 50p) where Sam bought most of his shares as the true upper end valuation of the company. To get back to a £1 relies upon an oil price of $70 a barrel or maybe $75.