Member Info for Tornadotony

According to Bloomberg.

We should get a 1 April RNS on the outcome of RBL.

Surprise move up. Missed the trading opps today, but I am wanting to keep all my closed positions and get into the new financial year with a clear deck on the gold side of the portfolio. Only losing positions are being held over to hopefully correct longer term.

https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/opinion/oil-could-start-to-outperform-gold-sooner-rather-than-later-45755794

To the Colonel

The antibody test which identifies an individual as immune and recovered from Covid-19 and rolling it out for population wide screening is also a major breakthrough. It could for example find many millions of UK citizens as being immune and they could be free of lock down conditions other than international travel to infected areas for the time being. This helps those who are not immune as access to some services would be possible.

The company should confirm what ha occurred by Wednesday. If what was said on 12 March was correct than a reduced overdraft is agreed. RBLreduction of $300M with another reduction of $200M on 1 september. Tullow are not the only sector/ industry that are looking to bankers to act in a way that does not help create an almighty depression because of Covid-19. The banks are guaranteed interest repayments to the next RBL meeting. The assets exceed debts in this awful current market. Visibility on September 2020 would only begin to clear in June. The one area that has the longest time frame to return to normal will be the airlines. This sector accounts for 7% of the oil market in the form of jet fuel. This type of oil in large quantities comes from Nigeria.

If CEY goes down, gold will follow and vice versa. I see both heading down until June and we have the pandemic under some kind of control.

https://www.ibtimes.com/oil-prices-trump-administration-urges-saudi-arabia-end-price-war-russia-amid-2948591

Some of the profits I had on other shares have been used to add 20%. My average dropped from 63p to 51.8p so I am on the 5th February company value. I will probably stay with that kind of strategy of adding only through other gains over the coming months. The key news I am waiting for is remuneration being confirmed and it was as planned and whether Saudi Arabia agree with Russia of not dumping anything on a demand crushed oil market. This would then identify a bottom in prices during April and May. Providing Tullow holds on after seeing off quite a bit of production cuts elsewhere already the share price may once again improve in value.

Dorothy should spend some of that salary money buying Tullow stock when allowed to do so. If Dorothy does not use some of her windfall in that way Tullow will tank as it will appear rather self serving and that the person in charge has no confidence in the enterprise they are looking after. I do not say this in jest. I believe some shareholders should make it known to the company. I certainly hope some institution investors would point out that it would be a good idea. £30,000 buys 250,000 shares would mean something.

We shall have large demand destruction in Q2. However the epidemiologists know they only have one shot with all their lock downs. If hospitals and the case load does not abate and the casualties appear to arise anyway with the best modelling, best testing regime, and strong supportive public compliance and all fails then what is the point of continuing with lock down strategies. Instead its batches of morphine to humanely deal with a war zone field of severe casualties who are not going to make it. If the virus has found an easier way to infiltrate populations despite all the hand washing, hygiene and evasive contact with others many folks will say we have all done our best. I therefore Q3 and Q4 marches on as continuing economic destruction with no counter investment impact will be resisted by many communities and the scientific community and politicians should be aware of this. Six weeks is long enough to show if a country is going its recovery or not. So far Iran and Italy are not recovering and Spain is not slowing down. We have 3 red flags showing the virus is not behaving the same way as it did in China and may have mutated.

I therefore foresee economic activity and oil demand returning in Q3 as it simply has to. If the models have worked we might be through it by July but with closed national borders.

Alternative sales process to commence in 2020.

So it does go with Kenya assets.

Company will survive with no losses until 1 March 2021 with assets sold. I wonder how long the oil price would remain low but new breakeven with $1B paid off is around $42 a barrel. Oil could be at that level by next March. A vaccine for Covid 19 should also be rolled out by then.

Other than loan companies and a few in the health sector there are no other hiding places today.

The fundamentals are great and hence I will be back into Shanta. The problem is that various plans the company had are likely to be impacted for no fault of their own.

All the other miners have which suggests unfortunately that Shanta are not taking it seriously. They probably are in fairness but need to put a statement on the website or something.

Markets to now tank everywhere. To test recent market lows that were bounced from before the latest rally began.

For high level inflation we need to have high oil prices. The oil price has been decimated. If anything we are in a deflationary spiral and that's not a lot help for assets. Areas of inflation could appear on essential needs that previously relied on import supply routes that can not be substituted and are not subject to rationing.

The money printing is not inflationary. It is used to fill awful black holes caused by a complete loss of productivity in some areas. It is a relatively short term phenomena. At some future date governments will need to limit other infrastructure plans as to absorb the measures they gave out to companies and people so they had jobs to go back to.

Secondly the help has a gap from need to delivery. This is when gold is sold to meet cash shortfalls in many economies. Gold will be used on what it should do in emergencies. This is likely to pan out with the pandemic phase. The good news is that gold will be in a high demand again in late summer.

Centamin is due to deliver a very modest Q1 report. The share is pricey for what the figures could present. Centamin is most promising from August onwards is how I see it.

Others on here could be correct along with GS. However, I suspect some pawn shops might be busy over the next two months.

The logic for doing so is that a lot of people will sell physical gold as they need the cash to cope with Covid-19 impacts. Gold price to go down and miners to retreat from current levels. Not a Centamin issue.

Now out from all the miners. Will find out if it was dumb or clever later. Made another nice gain on Centamin of around 24p.

Covid 19 may end up putting a spanner in the works. Tanzania Kenya border shut. Will re-enter blow 7p. The fundamentals are good here its just the current situation on how it could impact on the company.