Member Info for Tornadotony

Matt
1. Keep an eye on how Trump deals with Saudi Arabia and if he can stop the idiocy of 4M barrels a day being dumped on a saturated market. Absolutely nobody wins as it can destabilise the banks at this critical time and stresses the financial sector that is already under huge strain. This gets resolved this week or early next week. If the dump happens and Trump does nothing he may as well accept a lost election result in November.
2. If over supply avoided the oil market reacts to Covid-19 only. The price goes up $10 or so a barrel from here.
3. Tullow is affected by remuneration RBL outcome which happens before 31 March. Likely to be positive.
4. Covid-19 is likely to be 8M barrels a day off demand. Around half is dealt with. Once over supply issues are resolved it is a question if new measures can be agreed to help reduce production quotas. If they can do this in June we could see $40 oil and the market to stabilise.
5. Tullow has to progress Uganda farm down and sale of Kenya assets. If both achieved the company saves $4 off production costs for having reduced debts. These are disrupted by Covid-19 and need pandemic to abate.
6. Nobody can tell you what future stock prices will be as none of us have been through anything like this before.

jbatch, The Chinese Government said manufacturing up to 75% and services 65% although all restaurants and entertainment places are shut. Happy to read your on the ground insights. Are you in Shanghai? China is probably affected on exports to lock down countries.

A lot of modelling of what may happen is going on. Italy and Spain numbers have yet to de-accelerate. Lets see if it happens this week. A problem in Italy is that the virus has got into the care providing community and made things a lot worse. Spain is following Wuhan approach with mega facilities. UK must plan for this right now. Kit for carers, nurses and doctors must arrive now in the NHS. UK must go in lock down by Wednesday latest.

China is coming back on line. Japan appears to have its outbreak under control. outh Kore moderating and moving down from peaks. The rest of the pandemic is in for a bad 11 days on Covid 19. We should see peaks srting to appear in early April and a downward slopes nearer to the end of the month. May should see a clear downward recovery phase kicking in. Its the wrapping up in June avoiding secondary clusters that will be key. It is sad th the pandemic could not be avoided but it does givei a degree of global immunity. As for Tullowr edetemination any day and then CEO appointment should follow.

I hope a few people can chill a bit. I would not be surprised if world markets call in a suspension this week. New York and London have issues. The market is unreal in that borders everywhere are shut. If you get a bargain it can not be realised. Nothing is working properly. The system if wants to can call a two week/month global holiday and that all contractual commitments rollover two weeks/month. Result is the virus has nowhere to go. People get creative with time they have and accept employers/government want something back later on its called strategic planning. The virus impact builds a bond between generations and I think it strengthens a deeper resilience.

Russia, USA and Saudi Arabia need to accept that around 8 million barrels daily is being lost by Covid-19. Countries still use lots of oil in lock downs as people in homes still need power, food, medicines and hospitals are 10% of the economy working flat out. Libya has kept some off the market but other shut downs are taking out 1 million barrels off and Opec plus has kept off another 2.8 Million a day in Jan and February which USA disrupted by adding around 1 million. The Saudi were under estimating what needed to be done and Russia were waiting for USA to drop their production. USA is now heading towards dropping back around 600,000 barrels and this would be enough to at least continue the previous OPEC plus schedule. If applied across all of 2020 it removes 55% of the Covid-19 demand shock. The issue is that the effort has to nearly double across the board. It is now more obvious how this unfolds. Countries go through two months of going to a peak and then trough (hopefully). As they emerge freedom of movement is restricted within country. It requires the entire pandemic to globally end before uncomplicated international travel to return. The earliest we might get there is August. Aviation is 7% of the oil market and it will lose 3.5% that is not coming back again. Other uses may rebound but some not completely.

The upshot is that complete stupidity of dumping may end very soon as everybody loses. What happens next year depends on vaccine availability and effective roll out everywhere. A confirmatory test showing individuals as Covid-19 immune is very useful in accelerating late pandemic near end phases getting economies fully up and running more quickly.
It does need intermediaries arriving at a stability agreement and this holds for 18 months and normal market forces go into effect afterwards when Covid-19 is not the issue. I think Russia are roughly right on a $45 oil price with variations $5 either way. All producer countries may find they have to agree limits and banks may need to extend covenants on loans for that time frame as everything is so exceptional. The key is everybody knows when the arrangement deal ends. The problem with my thesis however is whether some producers get greedy and do not see a rationed approach as serving a greater good.

1. If the USA decide to slap a $40 tariff on Saudi Oil it would leave a lot of tankers mid-atlantic with no market to go to.
2. USA could decide it no longer wants to export oil and they keep it all for the internal market. This has a huge impact in the oil market once stored capacity drops back. The Democrat party may well be in favour of it. It separates WTI market from Brent to a larger degree.
3. China is coming back on line. Social/entertaining side of the economy remains down.
4. When the covid-19 ends economies everywhere will go into over drive. Most people will want to make up on what they have missed and had plenty of time to think about it. The rebound in activity will be a live for today response and that will run for sometime.

Closed short 106.23

Who has the biggest reproductive organ.

110.74 so half long and half short.

If Total do take it all over they will dilute their shares a bit and we probably will end up invested in their company. A bit like when Barrick took over Acacia.

Higgo I sell my own stock and rebuy it lower so you will only see it as o trades.

Tony

1/2 share pool on short from 110p. 1/2 as long.

Silver up 7%. Its a crazy market. Well done to the HOC bottom buyers.

The company need to exploit the rare earth acquisition they have and up date investors on it. HOC likely to hit an all time low and become a bargain buy so I am not so sure if it has found a bottom yet despite the big fall so far. HOC should do far more exploring than mining this year and expand its life of mine and just aim to breakeven to cover costs or tolerate a loss as future investment. HOC should maximise mine plan operations for 2021 and beyond. HOC should not high grade the mines to make a tiny profit. They have done well in January and February and hope March results still keep it above Q1 2019. Q2 is going to be awful and I am not sure HOC can do a lot about it other than what I have written. I suspect they will reconfigure things for the longer term so buyers may want to drip field if they go in here. Its a good time for the company to do a comprehensive strategic review of its business.

Utter garbage. Its the absolute opposite. As more immune people arise the chances of acquiring the infection from others plummets. The infection will have a 4 to 5 week wave and peter out. However it might come back next winter if we do not have a vaccine to give vulnerable people.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-immunity-test-090033681.html

I suspect they have just taken a load of shorts out on Centamin at 100 or so pence. Now allowing the SP to drop. The shorts then close and SP rises and they rinse and repeat in the market. Each time they drive the price lower depending what they want or see happening with Gold.

If you want to buy Platinum bars at the current crazy prices there is none in stock. If you want to sell Euros for pounds then forget the Forex rate as exchanges added another 10-12% for taking your euros and giving you pounds probably thinking your a European who can get back home. If you want to buy some stock that has very low SP you find the market maker only offers a tiny amount of shares. Its nuts out there.

A completed bottom on the 15 minute chart will be in play. If the SP bounce off 7.5p again it will suggest strong buying support especially if it steadily moves to 9.7p and then breaks resistance and uses 9.7p as new support. I dare not hope that a bottom could be in play at this level but its getting interesting. Just need oil to do something similar.