Member Info for Tornadotony

Not name calling anybody just injecting a bit of humour from a locked down world. I was hoping somebody would create the handle and give us all a good laugh.

I am just waiting to hear from a POOforbrains name handle.

There is a lot of garbage models and poor science out there whether on global warming or Covid-19. In fact only 14% of all scientific papers published are competent science. It is therefore important to weight peer review papers that have proper controls as more valid evidence. The Grenfell fire happened becomes of incompetent modelling. It will be interesting to know if the Oxford researcher in question has ever produced a high quality research paper with a high citation index in other published works.

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50 Cargoes of Nigeria crude are stranded. Iran has 25% of its wells off line. Saudi Arabia has ne oil field on lock down along with Kaz. North Sea rigs are producing less and some like Enquest are cutting production Port of Houston terminal suspended as key worker had covid 19.

60 barrels of brent = 1 ounce of gold. Something is not right about that equation. We have never seen a ratio like that in the history of oil charts.

Some profit taking and gold overbought earlier so we may edge back before going up again.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/russian-oil-producers-fail-to-answer-call-to-pump-up-output/2-1-780149

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/230422/tullow-cuts-maersk-rig-in-ghana/

Lets see what happens with USA open. There is a massive gap in their charts. I would expect a rather big back filling operation. I could be wrong of course.

Silver just dropped 20 cents. Be careful as this is all rather temporary. Grab some profits where you can.

Closed at 673p.

115.8p closed at 136.04p. Retain earlier holding. Could see pull back to USA open

My bet is we close at 12.5 on the buy.

Just a small average down to 51p odd.

not for now

Added on Shanta this morning.

Coronavirus cases are appearing in very low numbers. The company needs a policy and plan to protect contractors and workers and everyone learns what to do and now be penalised for self isolating to prevent infection to others. The only saving grace is a younger workforce that hopefully will be spared complicated cases. If they have to shut down, the gold is still there and in the ground. Perhaps a bit of higher grading or ore stock piling would give quarter to quarter cover and manage 2-3 week lock downs. Being a small company with less staff than many it should be easier to avoid problems.

Now 2% of my portfolio.

Managed to add at the off. Centamin 12% of portfolio. Added on Shanta as well and now 2.5% portfolio. 65% still in cash.

If we take a 0.35% chance of mortality which is probably the minimum. 1 million infected people = 3,500 deaths and 145 beds occupied per NHS hospital. At 3 million those figures triple and so forth. The numbers infected every 3 days double unless a major effort is made to block transmission. If we disrupt this for 21 days we can get the infection rate to peak an see a downward recovery. Another 21 days would in theory wipe out transmission to current observations in China. In the meantime cleaning crews need to be very active. All of Europe has to recover together to get past this and hold to vaccine arrival.

South Korea now in a recovery phase with 20% drop from peak. Iran is currently forming a peak in its cases and awaiting evidence of recovery underway in the coming days, deacceleration of cases has occurred. Italy has yet to show that it has peaked and awaits deacceleration of new case load.