Member Info for Tornadotony

The events of this week have reminded many of us of all the impacts the pandemic has inflicted upon us, our families, friends, neighbours, wider community and across the whole country. It reminded us of the sacrifices and hardships endured in previous conflicts such as World War 2 and how many did not have the chance to see a grave of a loved one lost in conflict. Covid-19 brought it own brand of suffering and our nation still battles to heal from it.

Synairgen is preparing its results amongst a lot of controversy. However by contrast the results of the clinical trial potentially offer so much of what our nation can be proud of. The values include innovation, the integrity and the honesty generated from good science. It offers the potential that we are all desperately hoping for to give our medical teams a tremendously useful asset that restores our previous way of life as it was before Covid-19 in that we do not see plane crash levels of fatalities in our hospitals every night inflicted by this viral disease. The impact is way above any financial political transaction commentary in that it actually contributes to our emotional healing process within our nation and many others globally who lost so many in the pandemic.

I feel privileged to have the opportunity being a share holder here and having a tiny part of whatever happens. It reminds me of how real success involves so many people all putting in a collective will to achieve a significant goal. The incredible energetic power to drive for success is not found everywhere as it requires good quality leadership and the remarkable real intelligence that drives it is of course to reduce harm to not just ourselves, but to others when its in our interest to do so. All the best Tony

Rich

You and I are investors with a 2023 vision and outlook on Shanta. CD is looking at things from a trader entry point of view and he has valid points as we have in ours. I am sure he will let us know when he sees his entry point and then he will be a Shanta investor again and will then be telling off other traders as if they are stealing his lunch on their short term moves as Shanta value goes back up again.

Prenut to give you a more polite reply,

The company actually need two locations around Saltend. The company has to attract funding from sources that are trying to follow ESG criteria. Recycling magnets at some point is quite possibly now part of the project package and that is what a chunk of MG money is getting spent on. Dept of Environment was not applied for in December and if there were issues then moving to another site could be the answer and prove more expedient than addressing other options. The FEED designs were probably including new innovations as nobody wants to build a white elephant so they are responding to whatever they need to consider with new present knowledge. As for the risk of not getting planning approval, well I think its less likely especially if someone from DoE says they are far happier its further away from the Humber estuary and having it in the open farm area is a better and safer option. The chances of getting approval are therefore not necessarily negative. Tony

The closing price on my triangle today needs to be around 193p or a little higher. If we move back towards 202p by the end of the week the chart is showing an ideal time for an RNS to break the pattern on Monday as the 198 -202 range is where resistance and support collide. Any closing price going to high or closing below where we are now invalidates what I am seeing. Its all very tentative.

The appears to work. We have a triangle that appears to be completing next Monday 7 February on the daily chart. The chart for 19 January was messed up the day before. No guarantees that something similar happens again. The test I put on shows a triangle break on good news.

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=EOyaWk44&id=F283C7ACF38CC6628E124F2D0F8490CC0CFD0A6D&thid=OIP.EOyaWk44553VaZpmZA-sEwHaE_&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fimages.moneycontrol.com%2fstatic-mcnews%2f2018%2f11%2f5.png&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.10ec9a5a4e38e79dd5699a66640fac13%3frik%3dbQr9DMyQhA8tTw%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=513&expw=762&q=triangles+in+stock+chart+analysis&simid=608033005570500931&FORM=IRPRST&ck=C4AC3631BCB7BF635EE6A36B6052B562&selectedIndex=4&qpvt=triangles+in+stock+chart+analysis&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

Good RNS.

I believe NAV was 12p last year.

The key in all of this is whether Eric his team have been accurate with their Luika reserves and resources. If the reserves are 3g/t then quarterly outputs are between 18,000 to 18,800 ounces per quarter and that run rate lasts for 5 years. In addition they have 550,000 at 2.17 g/t remaining. If we take 40% conversion as being end of life mining rates we have 55,000 ounces for the the final 4 years at Luika. The experience in mine plan being used now identifies how that models out. If they blend use of lower grade ore in between high grade ores (as in 2022) an average emerges of 65,000 plus 32,000 from the new mine giving a 95,000 to 100,000 spread over 6-7 years. Year 8 would be the final for Luika mine complex and would need to coincide with WK start up. Overall, I would see this model recovering Shanta back to 12p and those years with good gold prices of seeing the 18p target I mentioned earlier.

This is copied of course.

Dear Anthony



Thank you for your continued interest in the Company and we are aware of the concerns you have raised.



We agree that the Yorkshire Post article is misleading. In short and without going into detail , the company has full approval to develop the project at Saltend.



The additional land that has been applied for provides the Company with additional development options which accommodate the expanded scope of works as you point out.



As you would expect no decision will be taken on the new land until all processes have been completed.



Kind regards



George Zacharias

Company Secretary

Redhill

I think your right. When I looked at shanta with its West Kenya $20M asset with 107,000 indicated ounces and a lot more to eventually follow, Singuida with over 200,000 ounces with 7 years supply plus the same again at depth worth at least $26M pre production with $19m profit run rate or so and then we had new Luika working through at depth with the prospect 240,000 ounces plus another 120,000 to be developed from a producing mine , you can see a plus $40M profit operation for quite a few years. I never believed the broker targets of 32p, but I could see 18p plus with a good gold price. To see the prices pushed down this low is pricing in failure on everything. Hopefully the share price can recover again from down here.

On the mining we know that after Shamba is mined out Eric takes ore from Elizabeth Hill and then a couple months later we get to the BC Pillar. Hence the volume weighted production by quarters that were given.

What happens to Odey shares. When the prices are low enough I presume other entities take up the stock. Quite a few may have been taken up by PIs. The whole company could be bought out at this price.

thanks Redhill.

Redhill I can not find your data, how many shares are listed as owned by Odey. Can you please tell us.

From what I can see it has not changed of late. In fact they added to go from 11.65% or so to above 13%. At a peak years ago it was 24% but dropped when Barrick got 6.5% as the West Kenya asset was acquired. Two keys pieces of news to arrive. The first concerns Luika reserves and resources additions. Hopefully the reserves grow more than an additional 45,000 ounces at a very good grade and more resources are identified. If the reserves grew to 75,000 ounces that is very positive news for 2023 and delivers a clear route to production levels recovery. The second is additional VAT rebates. If the Tanzania Government agree on off setting against future taxes for the remainder VAT owed this would recover the share price very sharply and accelerate Singuida delivery.

Really great to have your input this weekend. Thank you so much for sharing with us. Tony

1. Global custody goes up sharply and Vynben disappears. Vynben is a former Director who resigned in June 2021 and may have liquidated their personnel equity account and put into Global or Global bought the assets as Vynben sold off. Its a personnel thing as Vynben was their pension pot and he may be simplifying his own business. So that change we should not read to much into it.

2. New State street is our new 5% holder.

3. When Jims buys sharply, usually a million or so shares, look at what is happening with short interest on Ortex and consider adding to Pensana if the short interest is retreating.
Tony

I have asked for clarification from the company. I suspect the article has confused what the company are doing. I believe the plan to make NdO at the original Saltend site stands as the boats from Angola unload ore at the dock and then have it all processed to NdO as we all understood. The company had not applied for environmental approval last month and I suspect its to do with the second application that stores huge volumes of chemicals further away from the Humber river estuary. It then allows quick environmental approval at the first site and they call off supplies just outside Saltend industrial park. I then suspect the finished NdO product goes into a modest truck and is delivered at the magnet facility being proposed. The original plan was to have the magnet project developed from say 2026 to 2028. This part 2 element is critical for Pensana to meet ESG criteria and for its funding to chances and terms of financing to be significantly enhanced. Hopefully the company will explain it better and what I have just written is accurate and correct.

I would be happy with a very short RNS that says the schedule in the diary for updates is listed on their website.
That investors should assume things are broadly going to plan against a published schedule in outline form unless they identify any major problem and an update RNS gets issued. The company would also give regular update on financial bottom line numbers at the agreed report times. These should be done every quarter.

The RNS would be easy to do and it would only take a week or so to agree it with everybody if that had not done so already.

Tony

drunkinftl and other readers,

The USA Government debt is 31 Trillion dollars. Your comment may be referring to the FED balance sheet which they say they may tighten. To give you some idea I believe at a rate of 4% interest, the repayment of debt interest annually by Treasury is equivalent to the entire Defence budget or Medicaid. Essentially USA is probably in default at 4% interest rate hike. At 2% its still at a nosebleed level with a lot of Democratic party programmes going to the wall. So the total number of hikes may be just a handful. QT removes liquidity in the financial system and that is extremely difficult to do as was seen a few years back with the repo rate. So the Fed is between a rock and a hard place and hence all the confusion in the markets on what they can and will actually do.

First of all there is no short position as I checked on Ortex after Eric gave his talk. Shanta does not have a history over the past two years of any shorts taken out.

Secondly a huge amount of sells are actually buys. An institution somewhere is selling out through the market maker and taking what they can get for Shanta shares. The main holders have held firmly but FIL and Blackrock were sellers. Some holders like CD also pulled out at various points. As the price drops the RSI and slow stochastics have crashed.

Other stocks like Fresnillo and Polymetal also got taken behind the wood shed today as well and lined up with Shanta.

Those buying into Shanta need to consider this is investment territory. It has good prospects and we have a tough year to get through. Quite a few holders will have this in the bottom draw.