RE: Mining Index9 Jan 2022 21:28
chrisneo and other readers,
Pensana was enjoying a lot of momentum and then we had a rather hawkish response in the markets arising from FED minutes and a lot of shares deflated although a few cyclical stocks caught a bid. So fundamentals put a road block in chart moves changing chart outlook probabilities. A lot of the miners were rallying and then were pulled back. The mining index started positive and retreated with the USA open on Friday and this added to uncertainty.
I suspect Pensana is getting caught in wider market sentiment. At some point Pensana need to publish a lot of information they are sitting on. The hydrology works was completed ages ago at Saltend and I can see no reason why it was not shared with us. We are still waiting on COOLA data and when the application is to be filed for Saltend to the DoE. An RNS on the last two would get interest going again. In the meantime the issue of UK dependency on China is in the news and the significance of rare earth supplies is hugely critical and again has caught press attention, but omicron appears to have paralysed a lot of activity here in the UK. We also have an energy crisis unfolding. In my opinion, the only way to resolve the energy price spike sensibly is having an energy based QE programme. The programme should partly fund transition from fossil fuels, but also to phase in energy costs higher over time to the UK public (say £200 a year per household, £100 for an apartment/flat) and that prices go only in one direction and everyone has a chance to manage the change each year instead of almighty inflationary hits in one go. The alternative of hitting everyone for six at the same time as many other areas are making cash calls could lead to disruption in parts of the UK or a significant recession with economic growth sinking a lot faster than current projections economists are hoping for.
As for the Pensana chart we have shrugged off overbought signals but we do not have a clear picture on what it will do next. The only thing I was correct with in the chart of late was that 103p was not going to be easy to breakthrough and it was going to need more time. Its important to remember that chart analysis is only probabilities and sometimes fundamentals can turn chart analysis on its head. if I can get a clear picture of what it may do, I will share it on here. Regards Tony