Member Info for toothache

Scrodinger, agree with you that it's stilll an uphill battle for TLW. Whilst others have taken the opportunity of buying in when it was low.
I have a strategy that i stick to that doesn't allow me to make an entry until all the criteria is met. I don't mind turning up to the party late as profit is only profit once you've cashed out and in the bank.
Well done those who bagged a bargain!

@scrodinger. That's very unlike you to be negative. ;) I've been playing around with some chart projections (weekly/Monthly). Yes the SP is still well below the 52/200MA however yesterdays postive day is a good sign. There is still the hurdle of going above the 50% Fib retracement then the major hurdle of the previous ATL of 34p.

But I did a 4 year projection on the weekly TF based on it's lowest and made a channel. Now take this with a pinch of salt as I don't know where the SP will be I'm only using the trend line based on the above. The SP is closing the GAP on the 52 MA which is what you would expect after the huge drop of Nov 2019. So lets say for argument sake that the SP just stays within this upward channel then by mid 2025 the price could be at the bottom of the channel of mid 67 to the top of the channel of high 87p. Economists and even the OIL & GAS industry say that they are looking at long term for things to start to go back to normal.
But whose to say that it won't spike up to close the GAP of 131p before that?!! Wouldn't that be a dream?!!

@scrodinger...Just read in my local rag that the first in the world Hydrogen fuel celled bus is coming to West Midlands in April 2021.
hahaha. I was wrong to say that 'it won't be next year'!!

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/TLW/VjyYxLiR-TLW-Chart-Update/

Currently the SP is between the 0.786 -0.618 of the Fib tracement. Who knows where it will go from here.
For me I'm looking for the SP to go above the 0.5 of the Fib line for it to make a higher low to even consider opening a Long. Price action I would like to see a close above 20p to then retest the resistance of 19.4 and get rejected to then go above the 22p to start looking at Long entries.

It may just range between 14.2 - 17.4 for a number of days/weeks/months. Which IMO is a good sign that the SP is plateauing which means a reversal is in the wings.

GLA

@scrodinger. There is always going to be an element of risk when dealing with volatile materials. Being a chemical engineer you will also know that Lithium is also highly volatile...granted not on the scale as Hydrogen. It's all about containing and harnessing the emense energy to release it at a stable rate.

Just look how far the human race has developed in the last 100 years, more so in the last 60 years. The rate of pace in technology has grown exponentially. Hydrogen is used in a number of data centres as backup power rather than heavy batteries, that need replacing and are prone to damage due to irregular power spikes.

Virgin Galactic is working towards hydro powered flight. It won't be in the next year but give it time when its passed quality and safety regulations then it will be skies the limit. :D

I wasn't singling out any particular country ( i guess i was suggesting more developed countries). Whilst you're right about India not having infrastructure to adopt Tesla right away thats a given. Not evevn UK can do it. But it's interesting that you mentioned China/India as they are considered mass manufacturing export countries that rely on cheap labour. But if demand is low then the whole supply chain will be affected especially in the transport of raw materials / and final goods. Shipping whether by air or sea freight relys on fuel.

Right now, Royal Carribean are liquidating stock because they've had to cancel all of their cruises, which heavily rely on fuel contracts which they can't fulfil. Airlines too.

@scrodinger. I dont think anyone is suggesting that oill will be gone. As like you said the amount of other by products made from oil will always be in demand. However when it comes to mass transport and companies now taking a view to lower expenditure. Whether that be more remote workers, leading to less office space, the knock on affect to other businesses is going to take it's toll. Some business / industries will see opportunities to captcher the market and technology is only going to facilitate that.

For those who have been keeping up to date with RR. Then you would of read of some not so great news. Which will almost certainly have an impact on the OIL industry.

@masood7....I see no reverse H&S on any TF.

It's all conjecture, "if this" or "when this" happens. fundamentals play a part but it's all based on best or worst case scenarios.
The only rule i have is dont open a trade when there is an RNS or some kind of fundamental news about to break.
How many of you bought in at around 50p only to topup to lower your average? You need to see a SP above 35p to probably see breakevevn or a little profit. How many bought over 100-140p. How mcu do you need to topup to lower your average and then see the sp reach a level to see breakeven or a return? Are you willing to wait 18-36 months?
How is that portfolio management when you're not reducing your risk only exposing yourself to more!
Never trade on 'Hope or Feeling'. That's always been a moto that's been drummed into me from my mentor.

GLA

Sorry not Vpn pred text was meant to say GPU'S

Are you talking about the sale of ARM to NVDA? That was news just this week which had little impact to the SP. In fact it's not a foregone conclusion as it has to pass scrutiny and approval from a number of countries GB being one of them.
Most that non organic rise you're talking about is from the sale of Vpn's from lockdown as gamers have been online and upgrading. Bitcoin miners have had little contribution to the SP due to ever increasing costs to mine due to splits.
NVDA have just brought out their Ampere GPU's which I'm sure will be a big hit as technically it's far better than their top line 2080 line-up.
AMD has been a competitor but not just in the GPU sector but taking on Intel which it has been leading in the consumer market. I also hold positions on Intel too so you could say that was risky since they are a direct competitor but Intel shares took a nose dive due to issues with their latest chip and Apple ditching then for ARM.
However Intel lead when it comes to server based CPU'S they are far more reliable and easier for Virtual server setup.

Doucher. I 100% agree with everything you said. especially the it's just an opinion, and not advice neither am i an expert.
I play both the Long and Short game. So yes I made a profit from AMD & NVDA then closed my positions to then open a Short on AMD as i see retracement on this and I am already banking profit on it now.
Some may say i post predicitions, I say they are profit targets as that is my trading strategy. Those buy the CFD, i don't i simply trade the spread. horses for causes really.

Scrodinger. The fact of the matter is this...
Your investment goals are different to mine.
Besides I was replying to Nickel about his charting of oil. So go highjack someone else.

hahaha...you make me laugh Scrodinger. It's making for some popcorn reading. It's just an opinion not a prediction...
'Probability' does not mean a certainity. Just in case you were struggling with the English context/meaning
Yep you're right in that we are all GAMBLERS...AGREE WITH YOU 100%.
Let me put it in laymans terms as you don't seem to grasp what I am saying.
If you want to pile money into a share and let it drop and then put more into it on the hopes that it will rise maybe 18month or even longer as one poster said 3 years to see a good return then that's your choice. I said I would rather spend 100K on a share that will give ME (not you or anyone else) a return in a shorter period of time. i.e. AMD , NVDA.

GLA.

Scrodinger...it's a resistance line...nothing else to it. if it crosses good but whose to say that it won't come back down? If you read my posts carefuly I said it was below the resistance line. I said it's a probability that it could go down further...and I still take that same view/position. Even if it goes up to 21p as that is also another major pivot point which the SP could get rejected a number of times before it comes back down.

I dont claim to be an expert...you just like to pick and try to find faults to stregnthen your argument, if that is what you wish to do with your time then be my guest. But piling more money into a flailing share price isn't going to make you money.
Some of you may want to hold onto 100K for 3 years but I don't when i can make x3 in less than 6 months just by putting into AMD, NVDA back in April.

I'm using Daily TF, only interested in the opening and close for the DAY! Hourly is pointless unless you're intraday trading.

Nickel, not according to my chart. the BRENT OIL price is still below the 52 & 200 MA. It remains to be seen whether the 52 cross over the 200.

yep agree that its below the resistance line, mine however is at the 16p mark.
FYI = U.S. Industrial Production YoY was 0.25% lower than previous.
It certainly is a cliff hanger...don't get me wrong the price of TLW share is tempting and to let FOMO to get the better of me would be broken rule in my trade plan.
I would rather turn up late and leave the party early if it means I know how good the party is going to be.

Torn, on my charts i have 16.11 - 16.25 since it has been rejected to cross back over the past 4 days would be a clear signal to me that the probability of it going further down is high and to reacch it's intended measured target of 12.45 thereabouts.