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Yep, will be interesting to see how that pans out.

Torn, AAZ on the weekly TF is still above the 52 day EMA. Also when using the Fib retracement it's hit the 0.618 and crossed back over which to me indicates its still in an uptrend and will continue. So yes TA has proven to show in the charts for this share.

However i don't fully agree with your previous post that TA is useless in OIL exploration companies at least not for myself, maybe true for those acutally holding shares i get all the posts for the fundamentals. I still hold the believe that the H&S has formed and the measurement i use points to 12.45 or depending on where you measure that forms the H&S just slightly below 10p.

@torn, since you use charts what is your opinion/thoughts be on a weekly TF if you saw the SP fall for 13 weeks past it's last confluence? Would you playing Long or Short?

mline. thats my point. this forum seems to be very ramp centric. and like Torn said and i. its just another opinion. i see the charts for what they are. Torn uses fundamentals too. I dont complletely disregard fundamentals but as other posters have pointed out. on balance sheet alone a savvy investor wouldn't touch this share with a barge pole.

Of course I'm short on this but just because I think the SP will go to a specific price doesn't mean i'm stealing anyones breakfast or deramping. If i'm wrong I'm wrong and I'll gladly say if I lose a trade and profit.

Would I want this SP to go up. Yes of course it's another opportunity for me and others to make money. Will my trade plan let me...HELL NO! Not until i see agood sign and entry point.

I don't wish anyone to lose money in this game....the reason i share my opinions is simplly because if anyone finds it useful to make an informed decision and make money then great...however as i've said before do your due diligence. I'm not telling anyone to follow what i do.

No offence taken. I really do wish you all the best in your investment choices.

@torn, as i have said in my previous posts. I said 'It's never an exact science'. You just uoted exactly what i said in the past.
I love it how some of you get triggered when i post where I think the SP will be. Like you said it's just an opinion. Yet Mline likes to take pot shots.

@mline, yes is it easy if you know how to do chart analysis.
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/TLW/VjyYxLiR-TLW-Chart-Update/

100% success rate on my TLW trades.

GL

In my original post i said i know what I'm going to do. There was no recomendation to you or anyone what they should do but do due diligence.
You're thinking of scalpers who need to act fast. Like i said to YoungEngineer. I use daily TF not 5 mins.
You're absolutely right i make duds, as i also trade other instruments liike FOREX which has given my success rate a beating of late.
Yep i've opened a SHORT based on my analysis, in profit and to date 100% success on all of TLW trades.

Jul 30
Comment: If the SP crosses SUPPORT2 it now becomes Resistance (R1). A number of scenarios could play out after that.

1. cross back over to become support then make its way back up
2. cross back over then back down again (dead cat bounce)
3. attempt to cross over but get rejected (this could happen a number of times) before it either crosses over R1
4. attempt to cross over but get rejected a number fo times but then fall further down to SUPPORT3 (20.34 and probably lower to 16.11, 12.45)

Volume just doesn't support market sentiment to BUY at this moment.
Aug 18
Comment: H&S forming
Depending on how you measure:
- from the head to the shoulder = 13.90
- or from the head to the neckline = 9.85

@scrodinger. Now you're just showing how arrogant you are. To say you can afford to lose it all. Not all on here can...
btw what does it matter if I'm a spreadbetter? You are also gambling with an attitude of well i can afford to lose it so i'll take a punt right?!

@scrodinger. Exactly that. regurgitating figures doesn't make it better or more palatable. Like you said it's nothing new. except the bigger debt of $3billion. I read the RNS i digest what is needed for my trading plan just like you havev and I have come to my conclusion just like you and many others have.
So good luck to you. I know where i'll be pumping my money whilst TLW sort out a viable plan to get them out of the quagmire. Whilst you keep topping up to lower your average my money will be actually making me money on other stocks/instruments.

This is what i took from the RNS.
1. $3 billion debt
2. Aiming to finalise Ghana deal be end of this Quarter, however they did mention that it still depends on whether they get the money when there are risks to the political stability og the Ghanian Gov.
3. RBL Oct 2020 and Jan 2021. (This is where I will be paying close attention to the SP, especially after Jan 2021).
4. Liquidity for 18 months and their committments.

It goes without saying that there are a lot of risks to an investor to pump money into this share. I will not be making any trades until well into 2021. If the SP does reach back to the major resistance line of 33.5p within 18 months if TLW can survive that long then I will consider BUYING back in. That is just my take on things.

Do your due dilligence! GLA

@JMAX. one of my trading rules is to never open a trade before any news.

@ollyandpatch. If you must have an oil company in your portfolio then I would look at aramco saudi arabian. The Saudi's have moved away from hedging oil and pumped billions into ETF's and other stocks. That speaks volumes for the largest Arabian oil company who used up all of their cash reserves to pay dividends. Yet the SP is going up nicely.
or you could wait and see XOP (OIL ETF) fairs in a few weeks. ETF's are a bit safer but only ones that are NOT leveraged.

@Torna. Glad you made a bit of profit.
It's a dangerous game trying to pick bottoms/tops. It's always worth waiting for the trend to reverse and see it over a couple of weeks to take shape before making a move. I don't care if i missed out on a few extra GBP/Dollars if I'm late to the party. As there will ALWAYS be other opportunities to get back in.

@Saurkraut
If those who have bothered to read my updates. I posted over a month ago where I expected the SP to be.
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/TLW/VjyYxLiR-TLW-Chart-Update/

it's never an exact science, if it were I would be making millions. However my analysis has bought me very close to where I expected the SP to be which has allowed me to setup my entry / exit points to make profits.

Break down:

Jul 17 Comment: SP has still stayed below the major resistance line (Blue) and has also crossed below the weekly TF (Black). It remains to be seen if it will rise to be rejected at the weekly or cross and stay above.
Good opportunities to top up and lower your average, however I'm still cautious on the viability of TLW with it's commitments to raise cash from asset sales and lower expenditure.

SUPPORT1 = 26.40p
SUPPORT2 = 24.50p

Jul 30 Comment: If the SP crosses SUPPORT2 it now becomes Resistance (R1). A number of scenarios could play out after that.

1. cross back over to become support then make its way back up
2. cross back over then back down again (dead cat bounce)
3. attempt to cross over but get rejected (this could happen a number of times) before it either crosses over R1
4. attempt to cross over but get rejected a number fo times but then fall further down to SUPPORT3 (20.34 and probably lower to 16.11, 12.45)

Volume just doesn't support market sentiment to BUY at this moment.
Aug 18 Comment: H&S forming
Depending on how you measure:
- from the head to the shoulder = 13.90
- or from the head to the neckline = 9.85

@YoungEngineer. I dont use 5M charts. At the very lowest Daily.
All my trades on TLW have given 100% success. So yes my chart analysis has worked well for me.

GL

yep it is a pain, but if it's causing a great deal of distress then you deal with it quickly or it will cost you even more to fix.
For me I don't understand why some of you keep pumping more into a lower SP on the hopes of TLW recovering from their humongous debt. Didn't your mother tell you not put all your eggs into one basket?

For me it makes sense to invest in other well performing instruments, let your money make you money. Then when and if the time TLW does recover then you sell some of your portfolio to put back into TLW.

Brent has plateaued at $45 for 3 weeks. It has still yet to reach $47.70 then $50 before it retraces back to $45.

during that period of brent reaching $50, TLW may rise to 23.30 - 24p to then get rejected as Brent then falls back to $45.
or the SP could simply continue to fall as I have posted before and complete the H&S and fall to as low as 12p possibly 9+p. it all depends on how the next couple of days go.
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/TLW/VjyYxLiR-TLW-Chart-Update/

BTFATH1 - I dont hold any positions in TLW....yet. I closed all my LONG positions in July.
I shall wait for my entry strategy before i even consider a Short.

GL with yours too

the amount of regurgitated info that gets posted. You believe in your own dogma.

Once the SP drops below 20 and gets rejected multiple times at the 21.5 then you can kiss your investment, pension pots, whatever goodbye.

The Head & Shoulders has formed it is only a matter of time now that the drop will happen.
If you can get out now with a win or little loss, i would take it.

If you can still make money by selling your TLW shares then I would because you can get far better returns from other companies.
Waiting on a 'what if' (dream) is not going to make you money. If you're all investors then you should take a pragmatic view of your portfolio and reduce your risk.