Member Info for toothache

Reza1,
Oil is due a retracement to $37. However i see it closing the gap of $45.

GG ,
The article also goes to mention that the publicised inventory of china is shrouded in mystery. 80 Days since last Sept is not much. This was before the Pandemic. Much of these reserves are for state emergencies. If say it does increase their reserves it means they have more resources for their vast army, and their incursions into 9 dash U-Line of other SEA waters. They have just secured a nice glut of cheap oil for such needs.

GG, This was strategic on China part. Why not BUY as much oil sitting in VLCC at record low prices ready for when their manufacturing industry is starting to pick up? They will easily burn through that as the supply chain requires it.

Jzzj, grow up!

GG, I agree TLW isn't immune but then what company is? Especially in these times. However i see the SP just taking a natural retrace when traders are locking in profits all the while looking at resistance/support levels. Now would not be the time to BUY/SELL but to just sit and wait if the SP closes below 33 and then see if it then gets rejected and goes further down. (based on 4H & Daily TF).

From what i have learnt and understood as a trader, is that the SP doesn't like to stray too far away from the 52MA so it will spike up/down then consolidate then reject/cross all the while respecting the trend until it starts to platteau if its been in a long downtrend which TLW has been since end of April and starting to show signs of a reversal.
Brent is on course to close the gap to $45 (for me thats a given). It will probably reject / dip. Then who knows what will happen as OPEC members decide to reduce output based on the global demand as more and more business are filing for administration. Job losses increase. Car & Aviation industry have already job cuts which will lead to orders on BA & Airbus to be cancelled or delayed. RR have already announced job cuts due to lack of interest in engines.
It's not over till the fat lady sings IMO.

GG,
IN Jan on any TF then the trend is down. That still holds true for Weekly & Monthly. The next big resistance level which the SP reached but rejected was 40p, then next levels I have if the SP breaks the 40p are
R1/TP 1 - 62p
R2/TP 2 - 68p
R3/TP 3 - 79+p If it can break and close and keep over this level for it become support then traders will look to set TP at 132p (not immediately of course)

GG,
The Daily nad 4H TF charts that i use for my TA. TLW SP has been respecting the uptrend and evevn the Pivot Points. It could go a number of ways as whilst traders are simply taking profits on swings.
1. Consolidate on the 33p up till begining of July then bounce up
2. Dip below 30 but bounce straight back up respecting the trend line that i have on both of the TF's i've mentioned.
3. Your scenario of going even lower, but who knows when and if it does. The charts on these TF's at the moment don't support that line of thinking. However if you're looking at Weekly or Monthly which if you're an investor you look at long term then it shouldnt be ignored.

Someone scoffed at my first post of that the SP was at a critical resistance because i looked at the SP from 1999-2000 when it was at it's previous ATL before this low of April. The SP has crossed but is now dipping below that resistance. All i see are posts regurgitating the same RNS but traders will and do pay attention to the charts (The charts don't lie, whether that be an uptrend or reversal)

Retest resistance of 24, if rejects then as earlier posted will go to 21.30 at least.

If the SP closes below 24 then rejects the resistance of 24 i have an expoected target of 21.30

You will turn to the downside....

Torna, You raise some very valid points of non Covid related deaths. Which model do you follow? A draconian one of SEA countries or that of Sweden and the Netherlands to a lesser extent whereby they like to go for herd immunity. My real worry is all those Dr's, Nurses, Porters et al as they are experiencing not just the nuber of cases and deaths but the daily sight of the way patients are dying. Gasping for their last breath. PTSD related deaths of key workers are going to be another statistic.

That is good news Tornadotony that the results produced antibodies. I do wonder though why they didnt take a ground zero patient or any patient for that matter to harvest the antibodies? I'm no Trump! So its got to better than pumping disinfectant.
I also question that number of deaths caused by Covid, as they (NHS / ONS) that Dr's were putting Covid on the cause of death on the certificate without confirmation of a test. This for me raises a lot of warnings, in that it falsely represents the true numbers, that the symptoms are flu like which Dr's are using as a reason to put Covid as cause of death when the seasonal flu kills more than Covid. So what % of deaths are seasonal flu which is a Corona strain and what % are this Covid 19. In addition the ethical reasons behind it, god forbid we had a H. Shipman and negligance was the case and not Covid. I see claims against the NHS when they have been true heroes.

xel123,
The word 'could' is not a prediction.

Share the same sentiments WinningF. It certainly isn't nice to lose money and that's were it gets very dangerous bc your emotions can make you do silly things. Like you say...learn from your mistakes.
Like me i also trade the swings, not so much now as the RR is not worth it when the SP is consolidating so tightly. I don't care what others thing as I've put most of them on filter. lol
I have no problem having a discussion/debate if they bring something worthwhile to the BB. But if you're just going to throw insults with no incline of any info to backup your assertions then...they should just move along.

GL to you too in yours. I've had a couple of good days with intraday FOREX

WinningF,
I think it will be lost on those who are not willing to be open to a difference of opinion but also on those who have bought in below 20. It all depends on where others have bought in. Like you i came in at 8p but i closed all by 1 of my longs. Then shorted at the spike and opened another long at 17p. I have 1 short and am willing to hold it for a further drop. Then wait for a good price action to open more Longs.

WinnngF,

I thought thats what i said in my post? That Shorters will close their short positions to buy back in to go long. I get that a number of traders use automated bots but they are simply setting orders at a particular SP level. Once they've closed out their positions it's simply to have liquidity to load up again once they've made their profits. Hence 'sentiment' has changed to the opposite.

WinningF

Not sure why sorters would close their positions would mean a drop in SP? If they close their positions it means they are willing to BUY in at a low price to see the SP go up right? It would make more sense to hold their shorts and see if more Shorts are being added.
For me it's all about cashflow and whether the assests can generate enough cash to fulfill the RBL. Positive news on the output of new fields will most definitely spike the SP up.

WinningF / Laidback
I also was of the impression that 20p could be met, however I'm not so sure. I earlier posted that 22.77 was going to be the bottom of the range which it hit at 22.68 (thereabout), there is major support at the mid 23's and i believe it will retest that. So a good opportunity to Buy back in again. Whether it will cross and close the 23 is anyones guess but if it does then i support the idea that it will retest low 20's.

Why wouldnt he sell them after Divdends were stopped. He still has a majority of his holdings so he thinks the price will go up further.