Member Info for tonynorstrom1

GGG,

I thought EPC Contract Signature was the big milestone and that 10p was being forecasted ? Why is the SP hovering around all time lows - what is the market seeing that others are not ?

The other thing is that I think Investors here have sky high expectations - not every RNS can be a blow out - were going to have some news along the way that falls short of expectations.

I see pretty high expectations from for the upcoming H1 report - people need to remember that the latest acquisition closed the 3rd week of August and that H1 covers the period upto 30th June 2021 - so were not going to see the production numbers in the financials. The most interesting things to come out of the report in my opinion will be:

1) Year end cash and perhaps a post period update
2) Post Period comments on the acquisition although it wont be any different from news already released in RNS's and Company Presentations.
3) Update on costs which will make FCF estimates easier.
4) They may address the dividend also which may disappoint some. The acquisition affects H2 reported next year where we will see a significant uptick in the dividend.

I think one of the biggest things happening in the short term is the re-pricing of the Gas Hedges - I don't think most people realize yet how big this will be - It should add - $10 to $12m of additional cash flow - similar to adding 1000 bbl/day of oil !! Put that in your pipe and smoke it !

We also might get an update from WHI to put todays RNS in context - I'm sure they will have a positive spin !

Pete,

Its good - I wouldn't say its great and also on balance I would say it was expected. Its also incremental so whilst we may not see a nice jump today - it helps load the spring for a jump on additional news.

"You're out of your league here, GS, and you're wasting my time and the time of everyone else on this thread. If you're not intelligent enough to see I have no incentive to lie to you............."

Couple of comments Scotty:

1) No one here knows what your true motivations here are Scotty - whilst some may agree with your posts (or at least in part), don't presume you speak for everyone.

2) You have got unnecessarily personal with a fair few fellow posters and their crime - not having the same opinion as you !! Not very tolerant, not very mature - you might want to take pause for thought and have a reset !

3) Whilst much of what you post appears to be well researched - there are clearly areas in your knowledge around the investment case here that fall short and are not facts as you often want people top believe but is merely your opinions.

Anyway - the 5th test starts tomorrow - have a good weekend and play nicely with the children !

TSSZ,

I personally have few if any doubts about i3e - they continue to deliver, however, I continue to have significant doubts about your forecasting abilities - bring back Fast Food !

I agree Tomhuk - they could make these RNS's clearer. So it looks like the Martens Hills Wells are 238 bbl/day gross, 119 bbl net to i3e or 60bbl per well.

If you go back to the 5th of May RNS - this is where they first discuss these wells and stated that similar wells in the area produce at about 150 bbl / day.

This is the same RNS that says they are planning a drilling program (own acreage) in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022 so we should hear more details about this shortly.

So overall a very positive RNS exceeding Management expectations even though it looks like the Marten's Hill Wells may have fallen a few barrels short of what they might have forecast.

Seeing that i3e are not giving us anything to discuss how about your thoughts on this:

If you were looking to invest in a exploration / development play rather than a Producer - which stock would you favour and why out of:

1) PANR
2) JOG
30 RECO

"Jay refuses to take taxis in London and has an Oyster card" - well f_ck me, shareholders will be glad to hear that - wonder where the rest of the $6m goes. What a f_cking stupid comment !

"Many of the stocks your thinking of fall into that bracket ?" - I own a few shares in PANR but the shares I'm typically more interested in have positive cash flow as well as significant upside potential. They typically wouldn't be bragging about Oyster Cards and be measuring themselves solely against 88e.

"PANR's overheads are two-fifths of b^gger all." - The're not huge granted but I wouldn't call $5-6m insignificant either when you don't have any operational cash flow which was the original point I think GS was making.

Good luck to holders her particularly LTH's.

Good list Tomhuk

1) Clearwater production figures
2) Wapiti drilling update
3) Simonette update
4) Alberta plans (at least some of the 80 wells brought back online, if not a small drilling campaign)
5) Interim financial results
6) Dividend date and amount
7) Serenity Farmout (this month marks the end of Q3)
8) Clearwater Program (own acreage)

I added No 8 - we should hear at some point a development plan for Clearwater outside of the Farm-In agreement they have with an existing partner.

12:49

Scott - what's it like to know everything ?

I think it was pretty clear what GS was getting at with regards to the balance sheet - plenty of outgoings but little sign yet of anything coming in. There maybe less than 10 fulltime employees but there costing the Company $4-5m annually.

Also your comment on risked valuation doesn't mean too much - there are cash flow positive Oilies out there at a 1/3 of broker estimates about to payout shareholders in excess of 10% in dividends and share buy backs so its a reasonable question for shareholders here to ask when old Jay is going to deliver for them whilst he is drawing his $500,000 salary.

yes - I think TSSZ needs to stick to the day job !

I agree Bartle - she's fan daby dosy !

Freshair,

I don't think you can assume that because the CFO has not responded to you - he agrees with you - its a bit of a stretch don't you think? I'm not at all sure what you are trying to say - its a bit of a ramble if you ask me !

As far as CF / FCF is concerned - of course for us its an educated guess since we don't have access in real time to the actual costs - however, i've been modelling their CF for some time and my figures seem to match with WHI - so I think i'm in the ball park and I stand by what I have said previously !!

Great deal and now they are earning pots of FCF !!

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=7e3aa718-dda3-4eb5-8a64-e8693f79dfa4

Interesting article - it discusses the court ruling and some of the potential options including the re-purchase of bonds which is playing out now. It mentions that in an orderly wind-up scenario, bond holders are forecast to receive back about 76% of the value of their bonds - if correct HUR's offer is pretty fair and should attract significant interest which I think would represent a reasonable outcome for all.

Was the projection correct ?

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=7e3aa718-dda3-4eb5-8a64-e8693f79dfa4

Great to get a little bit of main stream press and some buying interest. Did a good job of highlighting the risks - did not really say too much on the upside catalysts aside from Serenity and that it is in acquisition mode.

What about the rapidly increasing free cash flow / dividends and the potential transformative drilling programs in Canada i.e. Simonette with the potential / drilling sites to double current production or Clearwater which is the prime acreage in Canada !

Lyndon,

The fundamentals here are ultimately what will determine the SP - this unfortunately for you is something you appear not to know not much about (along with Seenosense).

And FYI I have a few shares - not too many at all but a few. I too wish LTH's well and hope their research and entry point is much better than yours !

Senseman,

Are you sure you didn't see any light - you must have?

Senseman,

Don't embarrass yourself by talking about something you know little about - how can the SP be 2.5p if bond repayment is not at risk - stick to rounders!

Senseman,

What's your take on the amendments to the bonds offer. A chance for you to add something constructive rather than your nonsense on the SP / MM's.