Member Info for tonynorstrom1

KingSuarez - thanks

Decent presentation although there are a couple of errors. On the valuation for example:

1) It assumes 40% Oil which is incorrect - its about 20-22% Oil with the balance of what they assume to be oil is actually NGL's. Makes a difference as NGL's sell a significant discount to oil - depends on the composition but can be 50% or less.
2) TAX - no tax for a couple of years due to accumulated tax losses / tax pools
3) Actual Decline rate is closer to 7-8%. 15% is the reserve consultants estimate / model.

Also a couple of positives they could flag to further highlight the investment potential:
1) North & South Simonette planned developments that could potentially add 30,000 boepd
2) Canadian LNG plant coming online in a couple of years that should improve gas pricing

Also other minor typos such as the placing for Cenovus which was done at 11p and not 7p

Cenkman,

No they didn’t do a huge amount of hedges when the oil price was flying - they hedged at a market rate in accordance with there hedging policy - had you paid attention during the podcast - you would have known this. If your aunt had b_locks she’d be your uncle but the dividend is what it is!

Also they CEO was switched out about 2-3 years ago - gentlemen’s name was Neil Carson which with your extensive research you should have known.

Why would you in invest and then post negative stuff - makes no sense.

Well assuming that there would be no concerns about how long $200 oil would last and whether this could crash the world economy - which there would be; then you expect the SP to move up in line with profits / FCF generation.

$200 oil would more than triple FCF so it would not be unreasonable to expect a similar rise in the SP baring the concerns raised above.

Cenkman,

Couple of comments:

1) Your post makes little sense to me - you've obviously spent some time in in researching what appears to be in your opinion "dodgy behaviour" but then go on to say:

"I've only been invested here for several months and don't know the whole history but I am hopeful and have belief that we will do well - share price upside from here."

If you think Management are dodgy - then pretty stupid to invest in my opinion.

2) "They released an rns on 23 February saying they flow tested the Noel Falher gas well back in December. They made no mention as far as I'm aware that they intended to do such a thing prior." The're not obligated to run planned operations past you in advance - there are certain rules about disclosure but this is not one of them !! And further is not an example of being less than forthright with communications - there are several reasons why they may have chosen to do this for the benefit of all. They did offer a little bit more about Noel in the recent POD cast which you might have caught if you paid attention and probably provides some explanation.

3) I did say that if you look at the history from 2 years ago going forwards to today - they have delivered on pretty much everything they said they would do an more. Pre this date is basically the failure of liberator and the consequences thereof which included the requirement for re-pricing of the loan notes . This was not their finest hour - but whether it constitutes dodgy behaviour or not is another question - it also has to be noted that the CEO was changed at this time which was probably a result of this.

Pirate,

If you ignore the spike near the close the day before, the SP is really not much different from the day before.

Bruce,

I saw metal monkeys post and responded to it. It looks as though date of the reports does not explain the difference in reserve valuations as the Cenovus report is the later of the reports. The answer probably lies in development plans - I could not find any information on i3e from there reserve reports - maybe a question for i3e.

Mac,

you dont think the SP has broken free of its placing price (up 25%) and is now trading on other factors. I've not seen any large sale selling to speak of and we've churned through a lot of shares since the placing.

The institutions that participated in the recent raise are pretty much the same guys that backed I3E all along - I think they see much more value in i3e than 11, 12 or even 14p - would they not have sold all their warrants by now if they were interested in flipping shares for a couple of pence.

Bots - perhaps you didn't understand the question - the share price has done well but has it done as well as it should have done given the rise in oil and gas prices not to mention all i3e's incremental news and the fact that most including i3e Management consider it undervalued relative to peers. THE ANSWER IS PROBABLY NO !

Just for giggles I took PTAL, I3E & KELT and plugged them into the interactive chart on Hargreaves Lansdown and looked at the performance over the last month - here's the results:

i3e up 15%
KELT up 35%
PTAL up 40%

You may want to get your rose tinted glasses recalibrated !

sorry - here's the links:

https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1gkq3ia-I3.Kel%20REV.jpeg

https://keltexploration.com/q2-report-5/

Someone on the CEO website did a quick comparison of KELT v I3E. Both companies have similar production and product mix and revenues - so on the face of it a good benchmark -see link below.

From the attachment KELT's market cap is over 3 times that of I3E so the jist of the comparison was that i3e is grossly undervalued by comparison- however, taking a look under the bonnet. Refer to page 18 of KELTS Q2 report and you will see:

Opex = $7 (i3e = $8.50) Does not sound a lot - but calculate that over a year and KELTS OPEX is about $9,000, 000 less than i3e.

now look at G&A - KELTS = $7,300,000 approx per year i3e = $19,000,000 approx per year ( I doubled the half year figure)

Combined that's about $20,000,000 more in FCF that KELT has to put towards development and dividends - does i3e deserve the same valuation ?

WHI had to reduce their estimate for FCF and dividends in there 27th Sept report from the numbers presented in their 27th August report due to underestimating i3e's costs. This is the problem in my opinion - the brokers have been behind the curve estimating costs and hence overestimating profits and dividends. I'm not sure their the only ones - I suspect i3e have had similar difficulties and the Cenovus financials are not yet included!!!. So whilst production and revenues are clearly rising - I dont think the cost base is yet fully understood and how much of the Cash Flow tranlates into FCF (profit) and dividends.

Pirate,

If you go back to that time - equity raises and the SP prior to the jump in SP to GBP1.28 were done at the 20 - 30p level from memory. The run up in SP to GBP1.28 was in part due to over the over exuberance of shareholders. Management then failed to deliver on the Liberator project due to drilling a duster - but should the SP have ever been at GBP1.28 ?

Cenkman,

Reference to your comments on SP performance - I have my own thoughts which I will share, however to address your comments:

1) "I remember I read something about the management were dodgy in the past" - this accusation has certainly been made but not 100% accepted. If you go back about 2 years - most will say that i3e have delivered on what they have promised and more so I would say their reputation is ok / good though a very few might argue differently.

2) The criticism on how the deal was funded was covered in the question and answer session at the end of i3e's podcast a couple of days ago. In short they said that there was insufficient time to organize bank debt and even if there was it was not desirable to do so. You either accept managements explanation or you don't. Listen for yourself and make your own mind up - i'n my opinion Management funded the deal correctly and made the case that since the shares were worth more post deal than pre deal - in effect shareholders have not been diluted, contrary value has been created.

3) "Oil and gas prices skyrocketing and our oil and gas production has substantially increased in the past 6 months/year - yet our share price is going nowhere." - this is not entirely true . Google the chart 1m = 14%, 6m = 24%, 12m = 239%

Hasiba,

Its the BOD's responsibility to inform Investors if there is an issue with bubble point that could materially affect the value of the share price - what is the issue with the RNS ? What would you be say next year if they shut the well and the Management said nothing ?

Interesting comment on the bonds - I would have thought a good opportunity for bondholders to de-risk further and the company to retire further debt at a discount - only someone has said the bonds have actually gone up !!

I don't necessarily rate the website - but an interesting article all the same.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/know-i3-energy-plcs-lon-082055407.html

no - not really. I occasionally sell a very small portion with the view to buying back and earn a bit of beer money - but other than that no - I dont have the expertise to trade.

thanks Ron - your numbers dont appear to tally with what's shown on this site - for example at 9.04 & 9.05 - they show a couple of buys at 1,300,000 each.

Walkey,

What do you make of the G&A expense - they upped it from $3.00 to $3.75 - this equates to about $23m on an annual basis - is that competitive ? How does that compare to peers - let say KELT ?

Ron,

A few chunky buys showing up yet the SP is down a little - is their a big seller in the background - what do you make of the price action ?

GGG - did you get to hear the podcast yet - what did you make of it ?

Your right Pirate and you don't really know the motivations / agendas of people posting here but you do get a sense of who is posting worth while information and those that are out to pump the share for purely selfish reasons whether the information is correct or not.

MissAnneGrey is an interesting case - first couple of posts were pretty measured and sensible and garnered quite a few thumbs up, then as you say a slip of the tongue cast doubt on whether she was 25 year old beach babe or a 50 year old Investment professional. Then there were a couple of very unlady like posts a few weeks back and now were talking about whether Tomhuk has boobs or not !

All very confusing !! I wish we could stick to FCF !