Member Info for tonynorstrom1

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/81/idiots-guide-to-the-london-stock-exchanges-setsmm-0379.html

there you go !

the market maker for i3e is Canaccord Genuity so you can contact them if you dont think there doing there job !

"It normally takes a month or thereabouts for a stock to recuperate the cost of dividends. It has to be replaced with earnings before the sp can move forward. I'm sure we understand that? "

What a croc of fu_king **** - the latest dividend was 0.16p per share - just about every numpty and there aunties grandmother can see that i3e's SP regularly rises and falls more than that on a daily basis - today for example the SP fell by about 0.8p before recovering a little i.e, 3 to 4 times the value of the dividend. Give it a rest - i'm cringing with embarrassment with your obvious lack of knowledge.

Read some books, research on the internet before you come on here and try to educate others - its completely laughable !!

Pirate,

I hold a small amount now - wish I had much more. I sold most for a profit of about 50% in less than 4-6 weeks.

It may still be worth a punt now if you have confidence in the Docs numbers / research - he thinks it could 5x bag or more in less than 1-2 years. I'm tied up in i3e but might look to add a little more - well see.

I'll refrain from further comment since its an i3e board but a few words cannot harm !

Pirate,

I saw that chart as well and sent an email to i3e on the same subject. Eric Nuttall presented data to show that some of these companies could pay out in well in excess of a 10% yield via share repurchases and dividends and I think some will be doing this. This may well explain why these companies are trading on a higher multiple than say a company paying a 5% dividend.

JoeSoap,

I personally I would not ready too much into that. If you look at the number of wells they have all over Canada and the number of third parties they are selling to - If they are giving you July data, thats hot off the press and I would imagine that it would take some months if your are relying on documentation / official records to verify production numbers - therefore you would expect some estimation in providing July figures if they are provided now.

PiratePete,

I agree with you - but I will add one thing because its new and it came out yesterday and Freshair has opened the door again:

GGG admitted that he had contacted i3e sometime back and they had responded to him on this issue of Debt / Equity. I'm pretty sure that the response he got was identical to that received by myself and JAdam - that was that debt was not an option / preferred option due to either cost, availability, timing and over exposure to senior lenders or a combination thereof.

So Freshair's opinion is just that - his opinion - its at odds with what Management has said - he is at the back of the bus with his headphones on and I3e are at the front of the bus in the driving seat talking directly with creditors - as an impartial investor - who should you listen to ?

I want highlight the fact that GGG allowed this conversation to continue unnecessarily by not revealing this information earlier - deceptive imo. My opinion is one thing, GGG's is another - some may agree with me , some with GGG - but I think most are going to go with what Management have to say which would have killed the argument for most then and there.

What is freshair's motive to re-open this discussion now with really what amounts to his personnel opinion in the face of an explanation from management. What has Saprtan Delta Corp go to do with the price of tomatoes anyway ???

Cooincidently - there are some new charts put out on Eric Nuttalls twitter that various metrics etc- worth a look to compare to i3e and help you with a valuation.

It also include debt to FCF ratios so you can see where other Canadian Companies are trying to bring down debt levels to and where doing a debt deal would have put i3e - you do the Math - don't pay any attention to the rubbish here DYOR and see for yourself !

More specifically oil is down over $10 in the last 3 weeks and over 3% again today - in that context i3e has done ok.

Oil will come back and even at todays prices i3e is earning lots of FCF and is still able to increase the dividend by increasing production.

Where is Fasdfood ??? I hope I haven't offended him with the jokes on his forecasts - it was meant in jest - hope to see him back with his latest thoughts on oil .

Well just to add to what has already been touched on - no large sell showing up yet this morning though it is early . Lets see how we close out today. Regardless - I think yesterday was a very good day and flushed out many week hands.

A flood of good news due over the coming weeks / months - remember its a marathon not a sprint !!

Doorstop,

That is operational costs only - i.e. just the direct costs of extracting and processing the oil. It excludes all the items I've mentioned. Also I think you quoted the opex for 2020 - 2021 ands onwards is estimated at about $12.3.

this is on a cash flow basis and not earnings i.e. excludes non-cash items which I dont think is important in this analysis - cash is king !

if your talking about i3e then you also need to consider the price of gas as I3e's production is about 58% gas. Plugging into my spread sheet - this is what I come up with :

$32 WTI
$2.20 Gas

This covers finance, G&A, Maintenance Capital and Abandonment with zero left for dividends and expansion.

If you suspend / cut Maintenance Capital to the bare bone which you could in a down turn - this gives you something around

S27 WTI
$2.1 Gas

so quite healthy and a good reason not to be over leveraged !!

you've also got the Canada effect - I think they have actually been a drag on the SP as there are many historically decent Oil Plays trading at rock bottom valuations so they have a lot of choice . Also im not sure they rate WHI or Tennysons as experts in the Canadian Oil Patch. I think the're much more likely to pay attention to Canaccord Genuity - who by the way should be updating their report sometime soon. I think the 17p valuation you see on Market Watch and others is from an old Canaccord report.

exactly - but if you trade now is is going to be higher of lower at the end of the day - based on past history I would say its likely to fall back a couple of percent. But all you need is something unexpected to happen like Fastfood coming on and saying that i3e wont see 12p this month and all of a sudden it shoots up to 14p - so who knows.

mace66,

There's been a few mini spikes though I suspect that GGG will be looking for something larger. He also has a lot of stock and said that he would trade up to 1m shares if I remember correctly so even trading a small spike successfully will pocket you a nice chunk of change

I've made a couple of small trades on i3e and made a couple of hundred pounds but im also currently in the red on a quick hitter I tried to make on Hurricane - so not always easy to do and certainly very difficult to make money consistently.

If GGG was able to do it consistently - he would be managing his millions instead of talking to us peasants !

GGG,

Are you able to post your trades immediately on execution to demonstrate how effective it may be to trade the spikes ?

Tennyson are also an In-house broker so some may say that they are not entirely impartial - however, after having studied the numbers myself over the last couple of years and researched i3e's assets - my own analysis says that WHI's and Tennysons reports are realistic if not on the conservative side versus the usual broker notes which tend to be more on the optimistic side when it come to forecasting target prices.

Someone mentioned the flow rates might have leaked - did any one notice that Tennyson forecast what these may be - 225 boepd net to i3e versus i3e guidance in May of 150 net. Recently as has been mentioned - the messaging by i3e on these wells has been strange so who knows what he actual numbers may be.

Anyway nice price action this morning - hopefully the beginning of a rerate.

just to be clear and as you probably know - I do not think JOG is at all comparable to i3e.

I agree as I have said previously and as you state below - I3e to use WHI's words is pretty close to the front of the pelleton - not only in terms of its multi bag potential (all catalysts within existing portfolio and largely in i3e's control) but also in terms of down side hedge i.e. current SP firmly supported by FCF, dividend yield and low cost upside. The challenge has been thrown out several times by different people on different platforms (twitter, here, advfn etc) and no one has been able to name a better small cap oiler from what i've seen - certainly not with the same quality characteristics. The down side appears minimal short of an Oil price collapse or some other major disaster, but the upside is significant.

Thanks for the info on JOG (and Parge) - I thought you would knowJOG and would be able to identify the disconnect immediately without having to look into it further - JOG might be one for the future .

Justfencing - care to explain ?

Ron,

I'll take a closer look and let you know. I did note however that they have changed the resource size and CoS between this and their previous report so it hard to figure out where they are coming from. Also why the difference between the target price of 25p and the valuation lower down in the report of 26.5p ?

Their initial report 6-8 months back was riddled with inconsistencies - this one also seems to contain a couple although they dont impact the overall jist of the report.

Ron,

"I'd be happy to listen to anyone that thinks they can argue a better oil company case than i3 at this time, I think they will have a very hard time of it - What a remarkable turnaround, truly impressive."

Well how about this - JOG - i'm not invested and am not pumping it - I know nothing about JOG. However, I did read the Broker note from WHI this morning and noted that their fair value estimate is 622p versus the current SP (122p) i.e. cheaper than i3e relative to the WHI fair value estimate. What is WHI missing that the market is pricing in or vice versa.