Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Some nice catalysts down the road - i.e. added pipeline capacity reducing price differentials and not to forget Canada LNG which has got to be supportive of gas prices.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Surging-Oil-Exports-Lead-To-Largest-Canadian-Trade-Surplus-Since-2008.html

Pete,

I think its about time you pulled your trousers up - we've all had a good laugh !

All still looking very good !!

DOPW,

What dates have we missed ?

Regardless of how good any stock looks - its not a good idea to have all your eggs in one basket - something can always happen that's not expected.

That said - I dont think any of the fundamentals with i3e have changed - the 6 month chart as someone mentioned earlier still looks strong. The SP is still undervalued compared to many of its peers. I thinks its just a case of churning though some stock.

Also i've not seen any significant sells - so none of the "smart money" looking to get out at these prices.

1st dividend due to be paid out day after tomorrow, another chunkey dividend to be declared in September and barrage of news due in the coming month or so - some of it likely to be very significant.

The share has to move higher !! Patience required !!

Are we still on for 13p today?

13p in Canada today is impossible - no chance.

you've got more chance of being struck by lightening twice !

oh and point #5 - by September i3e will have paid 2 dividends. Many of i3e's peers are not paying dividends and some are resuming payments from September.

As per i3e reports Net Operating Income (NTM) = $75m

WHI believe that this number will be significantly higher due to the futures curves used by i3e in their estimates. I've adjusted for this and estimate NOI = $87m

If i3e were priced at the bottom end of the range per the graph below at 2.2 x CF = (2.2 x 87)/(1.37*1200) = 11.6p/share

If i3e were priced at the average of 3.0 x CF = (3.0 x 87)/(1.37*1200) = 15.8p / share

If i3e were priced towards the upper end of the range per the graph below at 3.7 x CF = (3.7 x 87)/(1.37*1200) = 19.6p/share.

Given that:

1) i3e has lower than average debt
2) better than average growth prospects due to acreage size relative to revenue.
3) better than average reserve life
4) Multiple transformative projects - Clearwater, Simonette etc

there's a very good case for i3e attracting a significant premium relative to the peer group i.e. in the 4.5 to 5 x CF range.

If i3e were priced at 5.0 x CF = (5.0 x 87)/(1.37*1200) = 26.5p/share.

I3e will reprice otherwise the laws of physics have broken down and the laws of physics never break down !

https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1420725027549368325/photo/1

Good interview with Eric Nuttal - gives his thoughts on valuations (EV/CF) and also debt and where Companies are trying to get this to as a multiple of FCF. Also gives he thoughts on some of the best Companies in the sector which he is buying.
Useful to compare to i3e and figure out where we sit - I think we sit quite well.

i3e know Eric pretty well I think and will probably be talking to him again.

https://t.co/6PosazpUw8?amp=1

https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1420725027549368325/photo/1

you might have to retype eric nuttall (one word) to activate the link

"@Drjimjones The dividend was an essential part the restructuring of the company, the reason they were able to raise the capital to enter Canada in the first place. The acquisition is extremely accretive to fcf, nav, etc etc this complaining over what is a very good deal is silly. The weakness will be temporary imho, artificially induced from the PP… just run the numbers. If your only evaluation data point is share price on a day to day basis you are not investing. "

https://ceo.ca/ite?7d15467b2e4f#:~:text=2021%2C%2001%3A14-,%40Drjimjones,on%20a%20day%20to%20day%20basis%20you%20are%20not%20investing.,-13

this RNS relates to 53m options at 11p - so fare enough - the Company will get £5.5m to add to the coffers albeit that existing shareholders are diluted by an additional 53m shares.

You will also note that in the notes there is reference to an additional 75m options issued
5p (previous placement) - so when these are exercised there's an additional £3.75m to the coffers at the expense to existing shareholders of a further 75m shares dilution.

Kane,

Isas is correct - these are options to buy at 11p per share - nothing has been bought and contrary to what an earlier poster said - they indicate no confidence or otherwise in i3e or its share price because they are issued at zero risk to the employee i.e. if the shares never go above 11p, the employee is under not obligation to buy and will just let the options lapse.

In fact what happens in many cases is that if the shares move above the exercise price ( 20p for example) - there's often an arrangement where they can sell the shares first, pay the option price and pocket the difference (9p per share) without having bough them in the 1st place !!

Hence the term pigging at the trough. There's way too many options and this is where I think quite rightly (imo) the BOD / Management should come in for some criticism.

What about this Parge - any thoughts on this ?

I think it will be around 0.22p before rising significantly for H2

Any thoughts on this Parge - looking at some of your past posts - you should have something insightful !

MissAnneGrey,

Odds appear to be that the farm-in partner is Repsol Sinopec. Modifications on the Bleo Holm are supposed to start last month with drilling in Q1 2022. It does seem late now to kick off a Serenity drilling program in 2021. You would assume that any drilling would be coordinated with Tain which might put it in Q2 / Q3 next year. The only information in Fandangle's post that appears to be new and specific is the timing of the drill although i3e have previously said that drilling could be 2021 or 2022.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/228325/repsol-sinopec-pressing-ahead-with-tain-development-in-north-sea/

I recall that very well - but that was clearly a mis-type and I think was corrected in subsequent updates !

Harel,

I agree with the porosity but flow is also linked to the viscosity i.e. if the oil is "heavier" than expected, flowrate will be lower.

How do you read the RNS - do you thing we have way too much time on out hands and are reading too much into it !

Performance over the last month on a couple of tips shared here a few weeks back by regular posters:

RECO = -4.19% (positive reports - potentially the biggest oil find of the last decade)
NCCL = -14.5% (decidedly shaky - deadlines slipping and no to little news)
PRD = - 69% (this supposedly has great management!)
i3e = -9.8% (Coiled spring in my opinion - getting ready to pop !)
EMO = +25% (Doc's No 1 pick - he's up about 600% in 3-4 months and he thinks a lot more to go!)

Joe,

I agree there is something not quite right about the RNS causing you to try to read between the lines. The omission of "pleased" in the opening line of the RNS I don't think is a mistake.

Majid talks about being pleased with the drilling operation - so on budget, schedule etc but no mention of the payback period as for the Wapiti Wells lower down in the update although the RNS does go on to say "These Marten Hills and Wapiti wells are expected to add very profitable incremental production and cash-flow to the Company's portfolio".

Oil is there, porosity of the sand is good - so is the flow rate meeting expectation ? Oil quality in the Clearwater varies significantly across the play from Condensate to Heavy Oils - perhaps they are looking at some enhanced recovery techniques ? So probably a good update but perhaps not as bullish as some of us were expecting.

The WHI report is encouraging and confirms what my spreadsheet was telling me i.e. that NOI should be significantly higher than i3e are currently reporting. I thought it was perhaps down to hedging , but apparently the newly acquired production is un-hedged. The brokers have miscalculated once before but I suspect that they have been more careful with their numbers this time round - the Tennyson report should tell us more. All very positive for the the h2 dividend which I think could be 30-40% higher.

Morning Tomhuk,

Hope your right - normally these RNS's are pretty carefully worded. In the past the difference between " pleased to announce" and just "announces" meant something.