Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Repsol just release their 2020 results - no mention of Tain other than the reference "Portfolio Progress" and no mention of any other Project which I thought was strange.

I have not heard of any other project mentioned in recent times other than Tain. Given that Repsol have recently said that the North Sea is a strategic area for them and also looking at their Production Numbers - the Tain Project looks material and important to them. Adding 2 + 2 and coming up with 5, I'm taking the silence as a positive and that an announcement cannot be far away.

“In spite of the challenges faced over the last year, we remain focused and are continuing to achieve as a business. We have a strategic roadmap which outlines our key targets and priorities including Business Resilience, Portfolio Progress and Energy Transition."

Taken from yesterdays announcement on 2020 results:

"Production volumes decreased by 7,162 boe/day to 51,526 boe/day in 2020 from 58,688 boe/day in 2019."

Pirate Pete,

Here is a chance to try and redeem some credibility:

1) You've made an accusation of blatant ramping - please highlight a couple of points that you think have been blatantly ramped without just cause - I would be happy to address your comments with back-up or i'll withdraw the "ramp" !

2) You've bashed the stock and talked about dilution and been asked to explain - you've not done so yet. Please explain and justify you comments. You cannot reasonably accuse people of ramping and then fail to justify your comments - surely ?

3) The share price is not in the toilet - if you go back less than 3 weeks - the current SP was a 52 week high - how is that considered "down the toilet". Sure its fallen back from its recent high - that does not mean its "down the toilet". It may take a little time but personally - i'm quite confident it will move to new 52 week highs in the near future.

You keep referring to what GGG predicated and what he said - do you not have any of your own thoughts ?

I've had a drink already - about to go for a walk.

Why don't you consider contributing - so far your input has been worthless - no substance, no back-up, no thought process - just throwing in soundbites to be provocative. You might think your being smart but in my opinion you've added nothing - your bashing and your a shareholder and you don't appear to have an understanding of the facts !

If that's the way you want to behave so be it - most here I think can see through the rubbish !

Hashiba,

I have no problem with moving on especially if a conversation / subject has run its course - however, as Tom mentioned, the topic may have been old but I thought that the insight was new as it came from the broker.

I've also no problem talking about options - but don't disingenuously bring it up to try to prove your point on a completely different topic. Options should be discussed, voted on and the subject of emails to management if they abuse them !

Pirate Pete - I hope you have voted and not just given people here earache for the sake of it.

I cannot help myself - I'm going to have to call a spade a spade:

Pirate Pete - you are as thick as a 2x4 - no way round it - just had to say it - there - done it !

I don't agree with blatant ramping - I don't agree with blatant bashing - unless its backed up with fact. You've talked about dilution and your talked about other rubbish and you've been asked to back it up - you cannot because you don't know ! So please don't talk about stuff you don't know anything about including ramping.

Sorry - no apologies here - a 2 x 4 is a 2 x4 and you don't even know it !!

Someone mentioned that i3e should hire a PR consultant. I think they have done much better in the last month - maybe they need one, maybe they don't - another article below. Pretty sure that this is the Company that Doc said he introduced to i3e.

https://kalkinemedia.com/au/sponsored/i3-energy-what-is-transpiring-a-continuous-surge-in-stock-prices

i3e is gaining momentum - I think were a coiled spring - it has to give at some point when the news / progress is to good to ignore.

Piratepete,

If dilution is a genuine gripe - please try to explain and quantify it so others including myself can understand. I've said its not and explained why. I3e are saying its not dilution - so please explain !!!

JAdam - you bring up a good point - many people look at equity raises and think that they are bad or an indication that it was the last resort and no other way to raise funds. Many times that is true - but there are cases when its not true and its actually positive - like you I THINK THIS IS ONE OF THOSE CASES !

Piratepete - I'm beginning to think that you just like moaning for the sake of moaning - but just in case you missed the previous explanations or did not understand them:

1) Dilution - its not really dilution when you end up owning more that you did before on a per share basis which is what you have here !!

2) I agree - not good. However there are several mitigating circumstances:
a) if you really want shares at 11p or just over you can buy them now.
b) They needed $56m by the closing date - they weren't going to get it from PI's - it was a time sensitive deal - take it or lose it. They decided to take it for the benefit of all including PI's. So not ideal but still a good deal for PI's.
c) 11p is a significant premium to where the SP was only a week or so before - could it have been better - yes. Could have it been worse - for sure. Was it fair to all parties including PI's - definitely !

3) Options are a different issue - it has nothing to do with this deal - the fact that you continually raise it demonstrates that you have a different aganda which appears to include bashing the stock. If you are a shareholder - it probably also demonstrates something else that i'm too diplomatic to state!

I agree that there are too many options, the vesting criteria could be better - but its a different issue and its not a new issue - these are old options that you well know but seem content to take out of context to give management a bashing.

JAdam,

I agree that this deal potentially increases i3e's bargaining power and hence the terms of any deals - so even if we are diluted 30% with respect to the new shareholders, this could be compensated for by negotiating a better deal with the party farming in.

This ignores the benefits highlighted in my previous post - so all in all - what's not to like !

it was clear from the original SNS that the deal was going to be accretive on most if not all measures and particularly free cash flow which I think is one of the primary drivers affecting Share price / Share Price Growth.

The only downside or concern I had was dilution in Serenity - existing shareholders are diluted by about 30% which is significant but not devastating. However after absorbing the details - the benefits outweigh the negatives imo:

1) Reserves are increased by 150% or 66% on a per share basis. This is where all the potential upside lies - i3e have hinted at it but not really said too much yet - expect to see some gems within these new assets and more significant potential drill programs.
2) 80+ well re-activations - should add significantly to FCF / Dividends and make the metrics even better.
3) Synergies / savings of up to 20% to adding to FCF and Dividends and offsetting dilution.
4) Significant Increase in FCF to accelerate drill programs / acquisitions.
5) Increased debt capacity to turbo-charge drill programs.

The the other thing is that at present - Serenity is still a Jam tomorrow story. Most of us are quite hopeful that it will move forward but it's still jam tomorrow. This acquisition is Jam today and on good metrics, no increase in debt and with tons of potential upside ! Short term pain with the SP but hopefully just than - short term!

Freshair,

These are the figures from the WHI Report . The per share figures confirm that you're slice of pie is going to be bigger than pre-deal.

-------------------------------------------------Increase-----p/share
Cash flow (ex corp. charges; NTM)-----70.5%-------13.7%
2P reserves (mmboe)--------------------149.7%-------66.5%
Production (boe/d)------------------------83.7%-------22.5%

Synergies: i3 Energy anticipates INCREASING the acquired asset’s cash flow by up to 20% via synergies

Again the broker is saying that due to this deal - your slice of pie is going to get up to 20% more valuable.

Scaling up: We see only positive benefits from increased scale for i3 Energy. An increased market cap and cash flow base will only add institutional appeal to the investment opportunity. At the operational level, we believe that scale will bring efficiency gains. The significant increase to i3 Energy’s cashflow resulting from the acquisition will allow the company to plan more extensive drilling programs. Importantly, we believe that i3 Energy IS ENTERING AN OERATIONAL SCALE where EFFICIENT DEBT FINANCE STARTS TO become available in Canada. Taking a mid-term view, we see a lot of scope for prudently levered debt funding to TURBO CHARGE GROWTH.

This kind of backs up what I was saying and perhaps the reason they elected to fund this deal with equity i.e. debt finance STARTS to become a real option - POST DEAL due to scale and also because how much more debt could they take on if they had just spent $56m on the acquisition.

https://www.whirelandplc.com/research-portal#/portal/whireland/research/41_202107080334577556

no - when it trades ex dividend - it means without dividend. If you want the dividend, your last chance to buy is the preceding day.

GGG,

Or even better - you come back and find out you were wrong and your investment is worth even more than you thought !!

How about that - or is that too much to bear ?

GGG,

I'm with tomhuk2000 - if you don't understand it , then you don't understand and there's not much more to say.

I thought the point was pretty clear - I3e do not manage day to day share price movements - they work on making a durable business that will accrue meaningful value over time. I doesnt really matter what the SP is today or even next week, its where it heading next month, next year and 5 years from now.

If you looking for a quick return ( which you do in fact have - your up 100%) then maybe try bitcoin !

GGG,

"We were considerably undervalued versus peers on pretty much every metric pre-deal, which made us a target. We're NOW EVEN MORE UNDE versus peers, so even more attractive to a predator." - so even though PI's didn't get a fair shake at the placing - still a great deal for PI's ?

"Comments on here really do kill me." - well perhaps you really are the smartest guy on here and going to have to accept that others don't have your insight ?

I have a response back from i3e to acknowledge receipt of my email with a promise to get back to me shortly - if you promise to behave - I will share what I can.

and have a good day !

Jezzo - to be fair and in my humble opinion - they haven't had much news to work with - that seems to have changed now and lots to look forward to.

from the presentation:

"Year-one synergies expected to increase ACQ cash flow up to 20%, with 143 net drilling locations and 80 well-reactivations
providing scale for predictable future returns."

Synergies will mean a significant bump up in the h2 dividend. The 8o well reactivations - no idea what this could do but if you assume each one could add 30 boepd for example - that could add 2,400 boepd potentially very quickly and very cheap.

I was just following up to see how some of the hot tips on here have played out - Predator Oil - who's going to own up to that ?

I still have to say - the Doc knows best !

Fairdealer,

I agree it was not fair and I emailed i3e saying the same thing and still believe it was not fair - life is not always fair. But I am led to understand that the primary bid offer had to close at the same time as the placing and there was deadline by which the funds had to be confirmed to the vendor.

As you can imagine there would be real hurdles trying to get PI's on board in a fast track and confidential deal - not least because it is obvious here we are not all in agreement.

Anyway - positive discussion - ill need to check that HL have forwarded my vote !

Fairdealer,

"Any suggestion, the BOD need to act swiftly is open to debate as the current acquistion , announced 3 weeks before formal approval by the SH's, shows"

I don't agree with this at all:

Drawing parallels with everyday life - if you're buying a house for example, you have to confirm the funds are available for the deal to proceed and the deal is nearly always time bound to some extent. Commitments are made up front and the money is exchanged at the end.

The fact that SH's are voting towards the end of this month does not indicate that the deal was not time bound - shareholders have to vote - this takes some time to organize. I3e will have already got commitments from the largest shareholders that the deal will be supported i.e. in effect this is just a rubber stamp and they are able to make that commitment to the "vendor". In fact i3e have already publically confirmed as much in different words i.e. the deal is backdated to April.

Also certain shareholders here have already taken the trouble to email questions into i3e covering the above and other issues - so unless you have zero trust in i3e then its not really open to proper debate. If shareholders don't believe this to be the case - then its a real puzzle as to why they would want to remain invested.

looks like I got cut off - have a good day - don't sweat it - and get your vote in !