Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Positive for i3e but not as good as it could have been - 63% of production hedged at $2.34 !

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-25/there-isn-t-enough-natural-gas-to-calm-down-a-global-price-rally

Nice little tick up - will be interesting to see what happens when Canada opens - we need a little push.

Can you make another one of your predictions - what do you think of the SP closing above 11.5p today or even this week ?

I received an acknowledgment with the promise of a response in the coming days - nothing yet though. Do you happen to know if i3e are ok with sharing responses from them on this BB. Previously I would post the question and response which they had a problem with - presumably due to the risk of taking something out of context and then attributing the comment to them. I was left a little bit fuzzy if they were ok with sharing responses summarized in our own words?

JAdam,

Did you get a response yet from I3e to your email ?

and how did you come up with the 15p fair value ?

Kingivor,

Interesting observation - I thought that 2500 was a strange number, now you mention it, it is approximately 1/3 of the 8000 bopd estimated for Tain.

I would have thought though that they would develop Serenity at the same time as Tain which is estimated at about 30,000 bopd - this is multi well development and not sure if the plan would be develop in one go - I guess all subject to the results of the appraisal.

"I notice you continue to ignore my question on your views if they do it again. Remember they're asking their II mates for permission to print another 360m shares."

Here you go - Its not really a very interesting question but i do have the following comments:

1) Companies nearly always gives themselves the authority to raise funds and issue new shares to take advantage of any market opportunities - so nothing new here !

2) "what if they do it again" - well what if they do it again - there again what if they don't - bit hypothetical dont you think? You have to look at each deal on its merits. If its accretive on all measures (like the last one - from the data i've seen) - then there should be no issue - win win and i'll be happy to see the NAV of my shares increase.

3) "And if they've been here since the last 'great dilution event'" - not sure what you mean here - I believe you are referring to the previous raise at 5p. Not great I agree, but it appeared to be choice between issuing shares or bankruptcy - if you were an existing shareholder - that's zero or a chance to participate in future upside which we have now. I know which way my vote goes !

4) If the Management are so untrustworthy - its a little odd why you have increased your holding to 4m shares. Also equally odd why you are encouraging fellow investors to trade the "spikes" when Warren Buffet et al think this is a bum trade although it does appear that Barnyard might think it a good idea.

number 1 mistake by PI's "is being overly influenced by others :-)" - a lot of truth in this - always DYOR !!

"Justin WHO ?" - he may not have covered your Company but you know who he is. The quote anyway is from Warren Buffet !!

"sure beats sitting in a darkened room and trolling the blogs all day" - sure does, when you've stopped trolling Lloyds, HUR & RKH shareholders - perhaps you can share some insight here !! In between doing your director duties and smoking Cohibas in your Mums back garden if you have the time that is !

Good video from Justin Waite on the number one mistake PI's make - overtrading !!!

So if you know what you've own and are happy with the longer term fundamentals - you might want to think twice about anyone telling you to trade the spikes !! Also ask HUR shareholders about whether having an overleverage balance sheet is a good idea.

https://youtu.be/kCVMFUn8BGE

GGG,

The point was quite simple - look at the 12 month chart and the SP and the trajectory look quite strong and is set to get stronger.

Your comments on the POO are complete clap trap - you pull up a chart and its up and down a little but looking at the trend line - it only really breaks above the current level around the beginning of June when the SP was 8.8p.

The only thing that really surprises me is the lengths that someone holding over 3m shares will go to - to talk down a stock that fundamentally is looking very strong.

On debt - I don't really have much confidence you know what you are talking about - what I'm fairly confident is that i3e is in a pretty strong position now including on a per share basis (post dilution).

onwards and upwards

I would encourage to anyone to go and look at i3e's 12 month chart. On Yahoo finance you can add in moving averages to compare to. Considering the circumstances including an $10 fall in th e POO - they SP looks quite strong imo and trending up.

So solid base, a relatively low debt base and now in an excellent position to take on more debt (as per WHI) to turbo charge growth within the portfolio. Good news in the coming days and i'm sure that we will start trending in the right direction and a month or so we will probably be wondering what all the fuss was about.

Source888,

Bit of an arrogant post silencing a fellow poster then proceeding to provide your commentary on the subject and declaring it "end of matter". A simple matter at that !!

Its not a simple matter:

1) A $10 fall in the price is massive and as the FCF is effectively geared then the effect on FCF is even more massive - no surprise the SP will react negatively as it will for any oil and gas stock

2) There is no link to options.Institutions already hold over 60% of the stock - add in Managements holding and they already control the SH vote - your comments here are just off the mark in my opinion and just mixing unrelated topics.

GGG - nothing to with the near $10/bbl fall in oil ?

For all us newbies - what is this "Good Debt" you keep talking about - is that money you borrow and don't have to pay back ?

I3e have guided to 150 boepd per well but have stated that "wells in the area" produce up to 30% higher which put it at about 200 boepd.

Metal Monkey on the CEO website thinks that they could produce at over 2 boepd / 100m which would put it at 220 boepd.

So hopefully something north of 220 boepd would be an excellent result.

Some of the wells in the Tier 1 Acreage can produce at over 400 boepd - so maybe the possibility of a big surprise.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Sachs-Raises-Oil-Price-Forecast-Following-OPEC-Deal.html

still looking good - ignore the noise !

The Oil Hedges are at a little less that $58 per barrel and the Gas at $3.34 - so the hedges are still costing them money relative to unhedged. If / when they update the hedging - hopefully they will be able to hedge at slightly better pricing.

The other thing is that i3e's projections for the NTM's NOI are done at the applicable futures pricing so even at todays oils price - the projections are still just about in tact !!

JAdam - when you talk about debt - we probably would have been ok with "good debt" - correct ?

Anyway - everything still looks good - particularly with this last deal and we should be trading higher !!

I agree - no insight - but it is interesting that he has not had a swipe at Management in his last couple of posts. Lets hope we get some more good news this week !

Also interesting that Malcy has not commented on i3e recently especially with the amount of news flow in the last month or so.

i3 Energy (AIM I3E TSX ITE) announced an operational update. Drilling operations on the second well in the Marten Hills Clearwater drilling programme have been completed and eight horizontal lateral sections, totalling approximately 12,644 metres in length, were drilled from the wellbore. Production from both wells is anticipated to commence later this month. Upcoming is the second phase of drilling, targeting an additional seven possible locations. Production is expected soon to be over 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Thanks JAdam,

Its a pity WHI did not try to forecast FCF - dividends are linked to FCF. The numbers below are from the WHI report - except for last line - I've had a stab at estimating the FCF per share. Due to the economies of scale and as Graham points out
much of the additional CF flowing through to the bottom line - the effect is significant - I come up with a minimum 40% i.e. H2 dividends could be as much as 40% higher per share than they would have been pre-deal.

-------------------------------------------------Increase-----p/share Increase
Cash flow (ex corp. charges; NTM)-----70.5%-------13.7%
2P reserves (mmboe)--------------------149.7%-------66.5%
Production (boe/d)------------------------83.7%-------22.5%
Free Cash Flow-------------------------------------------- 40%

H1 dividend will of course will be lower than it otherwise would have been due to the increased share count but no contribution to FCF from this deal.

JAdam,

Good spot - how did you get the page to open up with Repsol's Canadian Acreage highlighted ?

It does look like a potentially hand in glove acquisition for Repsol - wonder whether they are looking ?

Someone asked the other day what a buy out price might look like - if you apply a multiple of 4 to NTM's Cash Flow - add on a 50% premium to reflect Serenity, Simonette and the other untapped potential in the portfolio - that would equate to about 30p which to me looks quite reasonable. The counter argument is that i3e were able to acquire these Central Canadian Assets at 1.75 NTM Cash flow - so presumably there are other great assets available to Repsol at similar metrics.

I'm not too bothered - you run the numbers on projected CF on Serenity, Simonette and I think given time i3e could go well beyond 30p.