Member Info for tomvisual

Blair suggested 180M tests required at the weekend. Reported that Govt using 3 suppliers? Whom? Therm Fisher, NCYT and Roche have been in the newspapers recently.
If the report that the Roche conformance to positive test cases is 91% is accepted (independent report) then perhaps the Govt needs to be revising the number of suppliers down to two.
Govt kust needs to get on with ordering the tests required. Blairs 180M?
Keeping the maths easy for me....
Assuming we get 100M tests ordered, this is over £850M sales.Future market cap for NCYT now?
T/O is now a real prospect in this test chaos.
gla

VanV did you see my reponse to the cinversation on TF and Qiagen?
FDA EUA approvals at
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/emergency-use-authorizations#covid19ivd
What product are TF providing to the UK?
The TF FDA EUA is for a test called the TaqPath test.
The Qiagen test, QIAstat-Dx Analyser (PHE document) listed in the FDA EUA list as approved on 30/3/20!!!. Interesting ....

GMF78 on Twitter: "After todays blockbuster RNS at #NCYT thought I should revise my target valuations for share price. Whether using EBITDA multiples or Revenue Multiples, £5 to £7 a share seems achievable in 2020. Current price £2.03, remains a bargain. When the funds load up this will fly ??????

https://mobile.twitter.com/GMF782/status/1244743952802201601?s=20
gla

Looking back at comments on this BB, I noted to my MP on 29/2/20
I was dumbfounded to learn PHE hadn't fully embraced this test already and have developed there own which provides results in a longer time frame ( potentially 2-4 days!).
The approach seems to be that PHE is undertaking ‘an evaluation process’ when we’re on the verge of a pandemic...when in fact there is only one candidate and secondly it’s literally on the IoW door step! Speed is of the essence.

VanV, if the TF test was not fully evaluated by PHE, I shudder to think what the implications are.....
gla

If the Eurofins manufacture was contaminated, the question needs to be asked where in the production process did this occur?
As the virus lives on sutfaces for several days then a major cleaning exercise is required which can only lead to further delay.
Eurofins said that the issue can be resolved by ‘proper cleaning’. What risk is there if nhs staff contracting cv19 whilst handling any of this product?
More questions for Peston?
Unfortunately more delay to nhs staff testing ...

Interesting comment "Not as efficient".
Suerly, 90-120 minutes is the fastest PCR eith 100% conformance with positive test cases?
Sounds like someone is telling porkies.
Clarification required from Peston?

UK firm says it's shipping millions of tests abroad because labs here 'can't cope'.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8173237/Where-testing-Huge-NHS-coronavirus-swabbing-site-stands-DESERTED.html

Shortage of nhs testing facilities had prevented further uk sales ...

FDA EUA approvals at
What product are TF providing to the UK?
The TF FDA EUA is for a test called the TaqPath test.
The Qiagen test, QIAstat-Dx Analyser (PHE document) listed in the FDA EUA list as approved on 30/3/20!!! Yesterday. Interesting ....
Bingo!!!
TF took over Qiagen for $11.1B early March.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/emergency-use-authorizations#covid19ivd

What product are TF providing to the UK?
The TF FDA EUA is for a test called the TaqPath test.
The Qiagen test, QIAstat-Dx Analyser (PHE document) listed in the FDA EUA list as approved on 30/3/20!!! Yesterday. Interesting ....

VanV,
I googled " virus testing in nhs laboratories" and the return is dated March 16th. I can only conclude that this is correct as the headers on most of the other pages show 16th March 2020.
It looks quite possibly PHE/ Govt made use of TF FDA EUA results to make a rapid decision at the 10DS meeting, captured by the DM.
No doubt (I would hope) any contract should have been conditional on the information supplied being accurate, with the proviso that if it proved inaccurate then the deal would be off and there would be penalties.
Thats why I was querying the TF % conformance to positive test cases and asking for help with research, see my other posts.

RTest full document at
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/03/guidance-and-sop-covid-19-virus-testing-in-nhs-laboratories-v1.pdf
Look at Appendix 8. Testing Systems Under Evaluation By PHE.
PrimerDesign -Novacyt there
Thermo Fisher - the TaqPath COVID-19 kit appears not to be listed!
See earlier comments on this tonight

Do we have enough information to say whether there has been adequate investigation of TF by PHE?
I think not...

Bob

Good spot on date. The Daily Mail photo in the article dated 17/3 may have been taken on the 16/3.
Does this mean no PHE evaluation of the TF test was assessed. Bloodx xxxx!
Pardon my french

Interesting. I think the Government have not ordere enough tests. Their initial policy was not test, test, test but herd immunity.
The need for testing camevabout with the change in policy.
Seems to me no one examined the previous experience/learning from other countries, esp S Korea.

Exactly.
Appendix 8 says that was the list of tests being evaluated on March 6th, which was a few weeks ago. Perhaps would need a more recent list of tests being evaluated?
However, how long into the evaluation wewe PHE at the time of the Report?
Would you not issue document with all participants listed? Peston input required!!

Roche, Severin Schwan, said 'demand is outstripping supply' for the reagents. 'Widespread testing is simply not possible,' he added.
NCYT have made provision for 18M tests. If we xan make our own reagents iscthis a driver for T/O by a big pharma?? Interestingly ...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8170791/Ministers-face-fresh-fury-lack-mass-coronavirus-testing.html
gla

Whilst researching, came across this document (6/3/20)
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/03/guidance-and-sop-covid-19-virus-testing-in-nhs-laboratories-v1.pdf
Look at Appendix 8. Testing Systems Under Evaluation By PHE.
PrimerDesign -Novacyt
Thermo Fisher - the TaqPath  COVID-19  kit appears not to be listed!
UK purchasing millions of the TF test and no apparent PHE assessment.....
That's interesting ....

Frank exactly my point. Please see https://www.expresshealthcare.in/amp/news/icmr-approves-three-covid19-test-kits-for-commercial-use/417799/
Lots of product which does not have 100% conformance to positive test cases. Roche is shown to have 91%.

Wolfiebill,
The point I was making was that these tests have been expedited by the FDA in a very short timescale. I was merely asking what the
conformance with positive test cases were.
They should have the data immediately for release. If they do not then before countries spend vast quantities of money on tests which may not have the desired 100% result, then they need to provide the info ASAP.
Otherwise, the cornerstone of test, test, test breaks apart and chaos ensues.
CDC initially released their own in house test that was not 100% conformance with positive test cases. This put the US on the back foot and probably led to the need for FDA EUA.
Tests should have been independently tested/peer reviewed.
The fact that NCYT makes the bold claim of 100% conformance is irrelevant to the point I was making. The bigger picture is that all FDA EUA tests should show 100% conformance with positive test cases.
The fact that the Roche test has been shown to gave 91% conformance with positive test cases proves my point. This result is surely unacceptable. The FDA now have to confirm this for thenselves in the case of Roche and others.
I was particularly interested in Thermo Fisher as I found no data on conformance towith positive test cases. This is the Company that the UK is going to fund to provide tests for nhs. Its important that these tests are 100%. Hence, someone of authority need to provide the evidence. FDA is best placed to do this. They know what limitations may have been applied in the process of granting FDA EUAs.
I note that NCYT make the bold claim:
The Company continues its extensive surveillance program to monitor strain evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the latest update continues to demonstrate a 100% homology of its COVID-19 test. To date, this means comparing the Company’s COVID-19 test to genome sequences from 1,700 known variations of COVID-19. The Directors believe this extensive surveillance and performance homology will continue to allow clinicians to use the test with confidence.
Hopefully all the other Companies granted FDA EUAs can make a similar claim to 100% conformance with positive test cases when their test comes under scrutiny. If not, their FDA EUA needs to be withdrawn.
It has been shown that the PrimerDesign does indeed provide 100% conformance to positive test cases in the same measurement study report that identified the Roche test had 91% conformance to positive test cases.
Whitty was indeed correct the 'one thing worse than no test is a bad test". No one can disagree with this.
Hope this clsrifies the point I was making.