Member Info for tomvisual

Stocktaker01 ....
ODX are working on PoC antibody test.
AVCT are working on 2 antigen tests (a PoC test and a mass spectrometer test) , as well as a potential therapeutic.
Antigen test used to determine if you have the virus, antibody test to determine if you have had the virus.
Both tests are important depending on where you are in the covid cycle. Start, lockdown, ...2nd wave, herd immunity....
Test, test, test

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
Who knows what is going on with testing in the US? Does not bode well.

Hi recall that when 20k death threshold was crossed the Daily Mail headline was 50M antibody tests at £10 each were being ordered by the Govt. At the time I thought this was to bury bad news. The Govt mark of success or failure was to keep the death toll below 20k. We now approach 40k.
I was surprised by the Optigene news on Thursday (21/5/20). Surprised because it headlined only 4000 tests and a 6 week trial on Hampshire. Basingstoke must have being using the LAMP method since April. The headline was 20minute testing. What did this take off the news? Boris was U turning on the NHS charge for migrant health workers.
Well today Dominic Cummins is in deep trouble, 40k is approaching. If the Govt is playing the headlines here, would I expect a major headline over this holiday period. Absolutely. I think Sunday or Monday the RTCcould be making an announcement, to bury bad news.
Call me cynical but I think we are be played ....
The BBC news program looks important to me. Item 3 looks like the Abingdon test kit. I think its ready!

Donnodertrader.. to my knowledge at this moment in time your summary is correct.
Test, test, test

tkr234 perhaps they could buy out Optigene.
However, the last RNS indicated they were not on the aquisition trail.
Also, I am not sure how LAMP fits with a mass test requirement. Basingstoke were not running many tests. May be useful for care homes and hispural staff for quick turn around of results.
LAMP was originally meant to supplement RT PCR- see my earlier post
Test, test, test

Optigene ...
LAMP is a nucleic acid amplification method providing a quick diagnostic method (5 mins) suitable for use without extensive training or equipment.
Not a true PoC test as it has to be run on lab equipment.
https://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/18343185.basingstoke-hospital-reduces-testing-time-covid-19-five-minutes/
Optigene are not a public Company.
I think they are throwing the kitchen sink on testing, just to deflect attention from their inability to manage the tests correctly.

Urraca, Avacta retreating to 168 IMHO.
Waiting for ODX.....

SP on the rise?
Chriszzr have you spotted a communication method betweem MMs?

https://www.investegate.co.uk/feedback-plc--fdbk-/rns/papworth-nhs-hosp---contract-renewal-with-bleepa/202005210700085474N/

No.
I am afraid, it is going to be 'test, test, test'.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-cure-doctor-moderna-novavax-oxford-a9523091.html

Fantastic assessment on economy and geo politics on R4 Today (20/5/20) at 6:15 by fund manager in charge of £160B funds. Even touches on probably of war. With Trump in charge in the last few months of tenure .....
WoW.
Inflation big time is around the corner as economies print money with gay abandon.
No way are we having a V shaped bounce back to where we were as forecasted by the BoE.
Put all that in the fair valuation model!
Following the Science
Test, test, test

No Chartist ....
Impending SMA Cross? Sma4, sma20?
May be good for 6-8% move?

Listening to R4 Business on Today (19/5/20 around 6:23), review of Covid 19 in Care Homes.
20% of asymptomatic staff identify by 100% testing (regardless of symptoms) in Care Homes and NHS.
66-75% of Care Homes affected.
Decision to curtail Community Testing at the start of Covid 19 in UK is one of the biggest failures since the Second World War. This puts back Track and Trace programme.
Blame game started. PHE or Matt Han**** in the frame.
Track and Trace app, route out of lockdown, not available til much later than expected. This means we are leaving lockdown unprepared.
Second wave .....
Scandalous.
Following The Science
Test, test, test

Ponkey, I hope you are right.
I am no Chartist, however, my chart uses sma 4,10,20,24 and 50 on it.
I did note it hit sma10 level at 382 and the sma4 level at 345. Where we are now.
SP needs to close above 345 to maintain upwards momentum.
Come on NCYT!!!
Test, test, test

Captain Stanley, from the latest RNS (14/5/20)
https://www.investegate.co.uk/novacyt-s-a-/rns/final-results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2019/202005140700098408M/
"The Primerdesign test is a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) test designed to detect a specific sequence of genes known to exist only in the SARS-CoV-2 responsible for the COVID-19 outbreak. If the target sequence is present in a patient sample, which is obtained from a mouth or throat swab, the result will be positive indicating the patient is infected with COVID-19."
Primerdesign test is a mouth or throat swab, not the dreaded nasal swab + mouth that everyone complains about!!
Is the Randox test that everyone seems to be using nasal swab??
From other information the mouth/throat swab has more viral load than the nasal swab. So is this not a win win here for the PrimerDesign test??
Following the Science
Test, test, test

No Chartist ... but ...If you are trading this:
Looking at the chart the SMA 50 is around 284.
This should be the EOD bottom. A bounce from the region 275-284 would be expected IMHO.
As I said no chartist, but someone previously posted, trade with your eyes not your heart.

Off topic perhaps but useful to know? ....
Previous article by Laura Spinney from the Guardian explains some of the details of the origins of SARS-CoV2:
Is factory farming to blame for coronavirus?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/is-factory-farming-to-blame-for-coronavirus
Following the Science

Here is how to deal with SARS-CoV2 - arricle from the Guardian:
The coronavirus slayer! How Kerala's rock star health minister helped save it from Covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/the-coronavirus-slayer-how-keralas-rock-star-health-minister-helped-save-it-from-covid-19
From the recent RNS Novacyt from its China operation were aware of a pending health crisis in China. Thats how Novacyt were ready in January 2020 with a test assay. What was British Intelligence, Foreign Office network response and what about the so called Pandemic Planning response???
Once we adopted herd immunity it was to late.
And we are going back to herd immunity without the availability of mass testing - it takes 1 week to get a test in the post.
Wuhan testing 11M in 10 days.
The only way out of Covid 19 is mass testing and contact tracing, a therapeutic or a vaccine.
Coming out if lockdown without mass testing (antigen test not antibody) and contact tracing in place means a second wave and subsequent waves until herd immunity is achieved.
Pity that we don't have someone of the ability and foresight of KK Shailaja running the UK!!

Mysteryguy,
I think the uk Govt policy is herd immunity. You see that with BA restarting flights with no checks in or out of airports and with the decision to end lockdown 2-3 weeks early with no effect test strategy thats working and with PPE for everyone in short supply.
So if they have gone for herd immunity we should be told. The outbreak will reoccur we will gp into little lockdowns with contact tracing.
Antibody tests on a community, say the IoW, should provide input into the models that the scientists have. Probably need to test 100k.
Antigen tests will still be important for the uk until we get to a 70-80% herd immunity threshold. Antibody test would also be needed in case
people have had the virus but do not show symptoms.
The extremely vulnerable need a therapeutic or vaccine as the risk of death is high. These individuals have to self isolate.
Not sure what happens if you have kids and a partner who needs to work to provide in income and someone in thst household who is vulnerable. Without mass testing on the scale of Wuhan 11M in 10 days I can see bad outcomes here.
Govt needs to order more antigen tests. Second wave is coming shortlybecause of thus herd immunity strategy. Whom can supply tests tomorrow not in 2-6 months time! NCYT and WHO approved Companies.

Wuhan are doing 11 million tests over 10 days. This will bean experiment that the whole world will benefit from. 11 million tests!!!! Antigen or antibody??
Uk needs to step up tests from 100k / day as everyone needs to be tested in high risk jobs if not daily at least weekly. Rolling tests are required not single one off tests.
A second wave is coming. Herd immunity was always the Govts intention. Rationale is probably based on getting second wave over before Autumn. The virus has not gone away. A second wave will be higher than the first peak.
The Imperial College Report by Prof (Lockdown) Ferguson showed this. This means an antigen test not an antibody test is required. You still need to determine if you have the disease not if you have had it. We are not at the herd immunity level to effectively use antibody tests. Lockdown has only resulted in the nhs not being overwhelmed. The virus has not gone away. What is therefore concerning is future lack of PPE.
From a helth perspective this can only get worse. Numbers of cases and deaths will rise exponentially.
This share is oversold. I am holding for long term.
Following the Science
Test, test, test

tecbadger regarding your comment on 29 positive samples tested ..
If only positive samples were tested then this says nothing about Specificity, as Specificity is the probability of an uninfected individual being declared negative. It is Specificity that tells you about the false positives, which is the key thing you need to know about for the antibody test to be useful to send someone back to work if that person has a positive antibody test result.
Guardian article
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/14/covid-19-antibody-test-unlikely-to-be-widely-aviable-any-time-soon

states the Abbott test was between 99.73% and 100% specific for antibodies that appear in the blood as the immune system fights Covid-19 infection. The Roche test was found to be 99.81% specific and 100% sensitive.
No reference to Abbott % sensitivity.
High sensitivity and 100% specificity, would be useful if those who tested negative were given another test with better sensitivity.
What is the truth? Do we need Porton to do the work to validate Abbott test?